sharpside
LIVE--:--:-- UTCdata as of —24h vol —trades —whale trades —markets —Polymarket flow, ranked — who’s sharp, who’s early, where size is moving.
Traders/Unranked

a.weidel

0x021…82f6
WR 60+PoliticsOther
Polymarket
PnL all-time−$10.9kvol $170k
PnL 30d−$6,164gains $4,740 · losses $1,608
PnL 7d+$280win rate 7d 50.0%
Win rate70.0%adj 65.6% · 30d 81.0%
Open value$3,566cash n/a
Positions67 / 139open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age10molast trade 3d ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL−$9,921below peak −$9,920Oct 12

SharpScore inputs

30/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 70.0% · shrunk toward 50%64
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable71
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d90
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain? · Noclosed+$2,014Trump renames AI by September 30? · Yesclosed+$767Sweden Parliamentary Election: More Votes to MP or KD? · KDclosed+$732Will Trump praise Cristiano Ronaldo by July 31? · Yesclosed+$630Will Vinted be #3 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 18? · Noclosed+$395

Worst markets

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%? · Overopen−$9,544Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET · Upopen−$1,565Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain? · Yesclosed−$1,297Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? · Yesclosed−$896Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? · Noclosed−$438

Open positions · 67

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will PP win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?Yes1,66684¢84.5¢$1,407+$8.33$0
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Yes1,61636.7¢54.8¢$885+$291$0
Will CDU win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Yes40018¢99.2¢$397+$325$0
Houthi military action against Mecca by December 31, 2026?No32080.5¢93¢$298+$40$0
Extended listed on Upbit within 30 days of TGE?No24977.9¢83.5¢$208+$14$0
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026?No17080¢93¢$158+$22$0
Will the Citizens' Coalition (MED) be in the next Swedish government?No6091.3¢99.7¢$60+$5.01$0
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495?Yes18564.9¢26.5¢$49−$71−$6.16
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.50T and $1.75T?Yes45014.5¢5.1¢$23−$42$0
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Ken Paxton by October 31, 2026?Yes5861¢28¢$16−$19$0
Will Barcelona host the final of the 2030 FIFA World Cup?Yes3,7570.1¢0.4¢$13+$9.40$0
Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day?Yes3383.6¢3¢$10−$2.03$0
Will Levante finish in the top 2 of the 2026-27 LaLiga season?No1013¢98¢$9.79+$8.49$0
Will Lebanon join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026?No1089¢97.4¢$9.73+$0.83$0
Will the next Muse model family be named Muse Watermelon?Yes2099¢3.4¢$7.12−$12+$146
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $2.25T and $2.50T?Yes490.1¢9.4¢$4.59+$4.54$0
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.75T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day?Yes1804.2¢2.3¢$4.05−$3.51$0
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Pará?Yes267¢10¢$2.58+$0.77$0
Will AfD win 26-28 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Yes2128¢1.1¢$2.33−$15$0
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $2.00T and $2.25T?Yes628¢37.2¢$2.23+$0.55$0
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%?Over18.2k52.1¢0¢$0−$9,460−$84
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026Yes4,1664.2¢0¢$0−$174+$5.61
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 2:30PM-2:45PM ETUp2,43464.3¢0¢$0−$1,565$0
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win between 30% and 33% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes2,4180.1¢0¢$0−$2.42$0
Will Linke win at least 14% of all valid second votes?Yes1,4500.6¢0¢$0−$8.70$0
Will Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $35B by December 31?No1,0321¢0¢$0−$10−$0.40
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win between 36% and 39% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes9665.7¢0¢$0−$55−$0.27
Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?Yes9001.2¢0¢$0−$11$0
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by September 30, 2026?Yes80018¢0¢$0−$144−$4.72
Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?Yes78411¢0¢$0−$86−$3.07
Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" in 2026?No6247.8¢0¢$0−$49−$1.80
Will Grüne win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Yes58315.5¢0¢$0−$91+$0.25
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1520?Yes5539¢0¢$0−$50−$1.82
Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during their summit?Yes52114.7¢0¢$0−$77−$2.62
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?Yes5003.1¢0¢$0−$15+$241
Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher?Yes5001.2¢0¢$0−$6.00$0
Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Novak DjokovicArthur Rinderknech41724¢0¢$0−$100−$2.28
Will Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win between 30% and 33% of all valid votes?Yes37827.8¢0¢$0−$105−$2.68
Will the next Mythos-Class model debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?No36357¢0¢$0−$207−$3.55
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $300 Week of September 7 2026?Yes3617¢0¢$0−$25−$0.94
Will AfD win between 32% and 35% of all valid second votes?Yes36019¢0¢$0−$68−$0.98
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 20, 6:45PM-7:00PM ETDown35138¢0¢$0−$133−$50
Will SPD win 30-33 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Yes3410.3¢0¢$0−$1.02$0
Will Moderate Party (M) win less than 16% of all valid votes?Yes29225¢0¢$0−$73$0
Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats?No25532¢0¢$0−$82$0
Will SPD win 22-25 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Yes22836.7¢0¢$0−$83−$2.11
Berlin State Election: More Votes to Linke or Grüne?Grüne20514.5¢0¢$0−$30−$1.02
Will AfD win 23-25 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Yes1980.4¢0¢$0−$0.79$0
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $280 in September?Yes1917¢0¢$0−$13−$0.50
Will Grüne win 35-39 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Yes1888.2¢0¢$0−$15−$0.55
Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look" get less than 40 million views on day 1?No16785.9¢0¢$0−$143$0
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 20, 6:15PM-6:30PM ETUp1501.3¢0¢$0−$2.00$0
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $272 in September?Yes1084.9¢0¢$0−$5.30−$0.20
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of September 7 above $300?No10011¢0¢$0−$11−$0.39
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of September 7 above $305?No10013¢0¢$0−$13−$0.45
Will Lula win between 38% and 41% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes972¢0¢$0−$1.94$0
Ethereum Up or Down - December 20, 5:30PM-5:45PM ETDown9015.2¢0¢$0−$14$0
Sweden Parliamentary Election: More Votes to V or MP?MP5425¢0¢$0−$14−$0.41
Will CDU win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Yes406¢0¢$0−$2.41$0
Berlin State Election: CDU Over/Under 20%?Over4039¢0¢$0−$16$0
Will Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win less than 27% of all valid votes?Yes3127¢0¢$0−$8.37−$5.52
Sweden Parliamentary Election: More Votes to C or KD?KD2622¢0¢$0−$5.64$0
Sweden Parliamentary Election: V Over/Under 7%?Under2022.7¢0¢$0−$4.64$0
Will the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $2,100?Yes1276¢0¢$0−$9.12−$2.60
Lula or Bolsonaro favored on October 5?Lula1013¢0¢$0−$1.30$0
Will the Moderate Party (M) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?Yes772¢0¢$0−$5.14$0
Will Augusto Cury win between 1% and 2% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes52¢0¢$0−$0.09$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
SELL NoWill Donald Trump attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?94.9¢210$19970%30
SELL YesWill Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?79¢4,918$3,88570%30
SELL NoWill Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?80.7¢700$56570%30
SELL YesWill Flávio Bolsonaro win between 36% and 39% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?5.1¢34$1.7370%30
BUY NoWill Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?14.1¢5,566$78770%30
BUY YesWill Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?75¢1,725$1,29470%30
BUY YesWill Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?74.5¢8,891$6,62470%30
BUY NoWill the next Muse model family be named Muse Watermelon?67.1¢358$24070%30
SELL YesTrump renames AI by September 30?50.7¢291$14870%30
SELL YesTrump renames AI by September 30?36¢440$15870%30
BUY YesWill the next Muse model family be named Muse Watermelon?7¢10$0.6870%30
BUY YesWill the Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during their summit?14.7¢521$7770%30
BUY YesWill the next Muse model family be named Muse Watermelon?10¢138$1470%30
BUY YesWill the next Muse model family be named Muse Watermelon?8.7¢322$2870%30
BUY YesTrump renames AI by September 30?28¢29$8.2470%30
BUY YesTrump renames AI by September 30?29¢742$21570%30
BUY YesWill the next Muse model family be named Muse Watermelon?9.5¢78$7.3370%30
BUY NoWill claude-opus-5-max be the best AI model on September 21, 2026?99.9¢675$67470%30
SELL NoUS x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?85.1¢60$5170%30
BUY OverMecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%?2¢4,823$9870%30