PnL all-time+$5,904vol $338k
PnL 30d+$873gains $1,653 · losses $0
PnL 7d+$296win rate 7d 100.0%
Win rate96.7%adj 78.0% · 30d 100.0%
Open value$17.0kcash n/a
Positions6 / 36open / all-time
Max drawdown−9.4%of equity peak
Account age6molast trade 1d ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL+$6,551below peak $0Oct 10
SharpScore inputs
55/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale54
Adjusted win rateraw 96.7% · shrunk toward 50%95
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable52
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d95
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity91
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? · Noclosed+$1,182Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? · Noclosed+$890Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · Noclosed+$831Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? · Noclosed+$760Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? · Noopen+$469
Worst markets
Open positions · 6
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | No | 7,665 | 90.9¢ | 97¢ | $7,435 | +$469 | $0 | |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31? | No | 5,500 | 98.5¢ | 98.8¢ | $5,431 | +$16 | $0 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 2,000 | 91.7¢ | 95.5¢ | $1,910 | +$75 | $0 | |
| Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | No | 1,294 | 90.8¢ | 97.5¢ | $1,261 | +$86 | $0 | |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | No | 500 | 99.5¢ | 99.6¢ | $498 | +$0.25 | $0 | |
| Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? | No | 500 | 96.2¢ | 96.2¢ | $481 | −$0.25 | $0 |
Recent trades
auto-refresh 30s
| Time | Side | Market | Price | Shares | Value | Trader WR | Sharp | Flags | Transaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUY No | Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | 99.8¢ | 20.0k | $20.0k | 97% | 55 | Whale | ||
| SELL No | Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 96.6¢ | 2,500 | $2,415 | 97% | 55 | |||
| BUY No | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | 99.7¢ | 20.0k | $19.9k | 97% | 55 | Whale | ||
| BUY No | Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | 91¢ | 2,665 | $2,425 | 97% | 55 | |||
| BUY No | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | 98.4¢ | 1 | $1.00 | 97% | 55 |