PnL all-time−$65vol $7,042
PnL 30d−$1,110gains $34 · losses $9.25
PnL 7d−$1,139win rate 7d 66.7%
Win rate66.7%adj 55.2% · 30d 66.7%
Open value$2,350cash n/a
Positions9 / 19open / all-time
Max drawdown−10.4%of equity peak
Account age1.1ylast trade 32m ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL−$114below peak −$104Oct 12
SharpScore inputs
27/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 66.7% · shrunk toward 50%38
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable43
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity90
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yesclosed+$28Meta's Watermelon released by November 30, 2026? · Yesopen+$23Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026? · Yesopen+$5.57Will Bitcoin dip to $103K in September? · Noclosed+$2.99Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? · Noclosed+$2.55
Worst markets
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? · Yesopen−$100Trump out as President in 2025? · Yesclosed−$17Will SpaceXAI officially rename itself to SpaceXSI by October 15? · Noclosed−$9.00Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Noopen−$3.00Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · Noopen−$2.70
Open positions · 9
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meta's Watermelon released by November 30, 2026? | Yes | 1,154 | 97.9¢ | 100¢ | $1,154 | +$24 | −$0.93 | |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 12, 2026? | No | 410 | 98.7¢ | 99.1¢ | $406 | +$1.64 | $0 | |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | 200 | 96.8¢ | 95.5¢ | $191 | −$2.70 | $0 | |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? | No | 200 | 94¢ | 93.5¢ | $187 | −$1.00 | $0 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 200 | 84¢ | 82.5¢ | $165 | −$3.00 | $0 | |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 124 | 89¢ | 93.5¢ | $116 | +$5.57 | $0 | |
| Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Yes | 100 | 96¢ | 96.1¢ | $96 | +$0.05 | $0 | |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 50 | 67.3¢ | 70.6¢ | $35 | +$1.63 | $0 | |
| Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? | Yes | 118 | 84.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$100 | $0 |
Recent trades
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