| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? | No | 1,395 | 74.4¢ | 83.5¢ | $1,165 | +$127 | $0 | |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? | No | 1,200 | 84¢ | 93.5¢ | $1,122 | +$114 | $0 | |
| Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? | No | 1,075 | 93¢ | 97¢ | $1,042 | +$42 | $0 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? | No | 1,080 | 88.6¢ | 95.8¢ | $1,034 | +$78 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI have the best Image Edit AI at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 1,150 | 88.6¢ | 85.5¢ | $983 | −$35 | $0 | |
| Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026? | No | 946 | 80.4¢ | 94.8¢ | $897 | +$136 | $0 | |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31? | No | 1,025 | 83¢ | 87.1¢ | $892 | +$42 | $0 | |
| Will Lindsay Clancy be the #1 searched person on Google this year? | No | 1,000 | 82.1¢ | 75.5¢ | $755 | −$66 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | No | 1,000 | 62.3¢ | 73.5¢ | $735 | +$112 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026? | No | 732 | 89.3¢ | 100¢ | $732 | +$78 | $0 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | No | 800 | 22¢ | 85.5¢ | $684 | +$508 | +$152 | |
| Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026? | No | 842 | 74.3¢ | 74.5¢ | $627 | +$1.64 | +$0.99 | |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31? | No | 655 | 79¢ | 86.5¢ | $567 | +$49 | $0 | |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | No | 925 | 54¢ | 59.5¢ | $550 | +$51 | $0 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? | Yes | 575 | 79¢ | 94.5¢ | $543 | +$89 | $0 | |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? | No | 559 | 84.9¢ | 92.5¢ | $517 | +$42 | $0 | |
| Will China become the #2 global art market in 2026? | No | 577 | 74.8¢ | 89¢ | $513 | +$82 | +$5.68 | |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? | No | 574 | 65.4¢ | 86¢ | $494 | +$118 | $0 | |
| Will Trump not endorse a Party in the 2026 Israeli Election? | Yes | 555 | 71.1¢ | 80.5¢ | $447 | +$52 | $0 | |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | No | 580 | 69¢ | 71.5¢ | $415 | +$15 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026? | No | 510 | 75¢ | 80.5¢ | $411 | +$28 | $0 | |
| Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 1,000 | 32¢ | 40.6¢ | $406 | +$86 | $0 | |
| Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 540 | 60¢ | 70.5¢ | $381 | +$57 | $0 | |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | Yes | 425 | 71¢ | 85.5¢ | $363 | +$62 | $0 | |
| Will there be fewer than 20 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31? | No | 410 | 85¢ | 87.5¢ | $359 | +$10 | $0 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | No | 410 | 64¢ | 86.5¢ | $355 | +$92 | $0 | |
| OpenAI IPO before 2027? | No | 360 | 84.9¢ | 96.7¢ | $348 | +$42 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 797 | 75¢ | 41.5¢ | $331 | −$267 | $0 | |
| Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | No | 375 | 84¢ | 88¢ | $330 | +$15 | $0 | |
| Will the Iowa 2026 Senate race be within 5%? | Yes | 450 | 62.8¢ | 72.5¢ | $326 | +$43 | $0 | |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026? | Yes | 1,100 | 33.4¢ | 29.5¢ | $325 | −$42 | $0 | |
| Will the Florida Special 2026 Senate race be within 5%? | No | 513 | 65¢ | 62¢ | $318 | −$15 | $0 | |
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 700 | 15.1¢ | 45.1¢ | $315 | +$210 | +$297 | |
| SpaceXAI matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31? | No | 356 | 60.5¢ | 87¢ | $310 | +$95 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 375 | 80¢ | 81.5¢ | $306 | +$5.63 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 452 | 54¢ | 64.5¢ | $292 | +$47 | $0 | |
| Meta matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31? | No | 322 | 76¢ | 85.5¢ | $275 | +$31 | $0 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 452 | 60¢ | 58.5¢ | $265 | −$6.78 | +$1.13 | |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 466 | 68.7¢ | 54.5¢ | $254 | −$66 | $0 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 610 | 37¢ | 41.5¢ | $253 | +$27 | $0 | |
| Will the USS George H.W. Bush be in CENTCOM on October 31, 2026? | Yes | 329 | 69¢ | 73¢ | $240 | +$13 | $0 | |
| Will the USS George H.W. Bush be in CENTCOM on November 30, 2026? | Yes | 301 | 53¢ | 77.5¢ | $233 | +$74 | $0 | |
| Will Google be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026? | No | 250 | 90¢ | 87¢ | $218 | −$7.50 | $0 | |
| Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027? | Yes | 1,000 | 25¢ | 21.5¢ | $215 | −$35 | $0 | |
| Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31? | Yes | 585 | 46¢ | 36¢ | $211 | −$59 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 322 | 57¢ | 64¢ | $206 | +$23 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 400 | 41¢ | 48.5¢ | $194 | +$30 | $0 | |
| Will Alibaba be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026? | No | 200 | 87¢ | 88¢ | $176 | +$2.00 | $0 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 439 | 50.9¢ | 39.5¢ | $173 | −$50 | $0 | |
| Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 600 | 38¢ | 28.5¢ | $171 | −$57 | $0 | |
| Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 7,200 | 1¢ | 2.4¢ | $169 | +$97 | $0 | |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? | Yes | 1,750 | 15.3¢ | 9.5¢ | $166 | −$101 | $0 | |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 392 | 54.1¢ | 41.5¢ | $163 | −$50 | $0 | |
| Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 1,000 | 19¢ | 15.5¢ | $155 | −$35 | $0 | |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 975 | 12¢ | 15.5¢ | $151 | +$34 | $0 | |
| Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 12.0k | 0.6¢ | 1.3¢ | $150 | +$78 | $0 | |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 1,000 | 25.4¢ | 14.8¢ | $148 | −$106 | $0 | |
| Will the Republican Party win the OH-09 House seat? | Yes | 515 | 45¢ | 27.5¢ | $142 | −$90 | $0 | |
| Frontier AI labs announce new joint pacing agreement in 2026? | No | 175 | 66.6¢ | 81¢ | $142 | +$25 | $0 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? | Yes | 400 | 47.7¢ | 32.5¢ | $130 | −$61 | $0 | |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 3,600 | 2.8¢ | 3.5¢ | $124 | +$23 | $0 | |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 2,100 | 4.7¢ | 5.9¢ | $124 | +$25 | $0 | |
| Amazon announces a training pause by October 31? | No | 120 | 81¢ | 97.7¢ | $117 | +$20 | $0 | |
| Meta announces a training pause by October 31? | No | 140 | 75¢ | 83.4¢ | $117 | +$12 | $0 | |
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 2,300 | 4.3¢ | 5.1¢ | $116 | +$17 | $0 | |
| Will the North Carolina 2026 Senate race be within 5%? | No | 157 | 58¢ | 73¢ | $115 | +$24 | $0 | |
| Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 4,300 | 2.3¢ | 2.5¢ | $105 | +$6.45 | $0 | |
| Will Meta be the second-best AI lab at the end of November 2026? | No | 110 | 87¢ | 87.5¢ | $96 | +$0.55 | $0 | |
| Will United Arab List (Ra'am) win 5.5% or more of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections? | No | 100 | 90¢ | 94¢ | $94 | +$4.00 | $0 | |
| Will Google be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 144 | 49.8¢ | 60.2¢ | $87 | +$15 | $0 | |
| Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31? | No | 84 | 85¢ | 93.5¢ | $78 | +$7.13 | $0 | |
| Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30? | Yes | 105 | 65¢ | 66.5¢ | $70 | +$1.58 | $0 | |
| Microsoft announces a training pause by October 31? | No | 71 | 73¢ | 97.4¢ | $69 | +$17 | $0 | |
| Will Trump pardon Keonne Rodriguez before 2027? | Yes | 485 | 13.5¢ | 11¢ | $53 | −$12 | +$18 | |
| Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 10.3k | 0.7¢ | 0.4¢ | $36 | −$36 | $0 | |
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 1,400 | 5¢ | 2.4¢ | $33 | −$38 | $0 | |
| Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 9,000 | 0.8¢ | 0.4¢ | $32 | −$40 | $0 | |
| Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 75 | 27.7¢ | 36.8¢ | $28 | +$6.79 | $0 | |
| Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? | Yes | 82 | 25¢ | 30.5¢ | $25 | +$4.53 | $0 | |
| Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 60 | 39¢ | 38.5¢ | $23 | −$0.30 | $0 | |
| Will the federal gas tax be suspended by November 2, 2026? | No | 19 | 85¢ | 99.4¢ | $19 | +$2.70 | $0 | |
| Will global art market sales hit $65 billion for 2026? | Yes | 23 | 11.1¢ | 37¢ | $8.48 | +$5.94 | $0 | |
| Will Jeremy Matlow win the Tallahassee mayoral election? | Yes | 16 | 20¢ | 45.2¢ | $7.12 | +$3.97 | $0 | |
| Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 2,900 | 0.7¢ | 0.1¢ | $2.90 | −$17 | $0 | |
| Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? | No | 3 | 68¢ | 81.5¢ | $2.29 | +$0.38 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 4 | 84¢ | 57¢ | $2.09 | −$0.99 | −$25 | |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026? | Yes | 3 | 40¢ | 39.5¢ | $1.09 | −$0.01 | $0 | |
| Will Marine Tondelier be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election? | Yes | 90 | 11¢ | 0.4¢ | $0.32 | −$9.61 | $0 | |