sharpside
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Traders/Rank #2,119

Red781RuM

0x04b…7caf@Red781RuM
SharpPnL 10k+WR 60+1y+PoliticsOtherCryptoCulture
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$37.4kvol $1.63M
PnL 30d+$1,348gains $6,639 · losses $3,971
PnL 7d+$3,669win rate 7d 87.5%
Win rate65.5%adj 64.9% · 30d 81.3%
Open value$48.3kcash n/a
Positions72 / 1,068open / all-time
Max drawdown−30.9%of equity peak
Account age1.5ylast trade 20h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$37.8kbelow peak −$11.7kOct 9

SharpScore inputs

71/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale65
Adjusted win rateraw 65.5% · shrunk toward 50%62
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d97
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity69

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 72

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?Yes16.6k66.1¢48.5¢$8,061−$2,920−$62
Will Paul St-Pierre Plamondon be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?Yes3,15474.4¢99.6¢$3,141+$795$0
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?Yes3,18851.1¢95.5¢$3,044+$1,415+$5,862
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No3,00079¢84.5¢$2,535+$165$0
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026?Yes4,38952.2¢44.5¢$1,953−$337$0
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?No2,00771.5¢96.5¢$1,936+$501$0
Will Dune: Part Three be delayed?No1,63789.4¢97.8¢$1,600+$137$0
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?No2,00572.2¢75¢$1,504+$57$0
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?No1,55079.4¢85.5¢$1,325+$95$0
Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?No1,63376.6¢79.5¢$1,298+$48$0
Will Monero hit $1000 in 2026?No1,53880.3¢81¢$1,246+$12$0
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No1,50079¢82¢$1,230+$45$0
Canada cuts off or throttles electricity to the US by December 31?No1,05585¢94.5¢$997+$100$0
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?No1,00089¢96.5¢$965+$75+$7.50
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?No1,00053¢95¢$950+$420$0
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?No1,00078¢95¢$950+$170$0
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes1,50050.7¢62.5¢$937+$177$0
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?No1,00074¢80.5¢$805+$65$0
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?No80058¢94¢$752+$288$0
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes1,01174¢73.5¢$743−$5.05$0
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?No1,00089.1¢64¢$640−$252$0
Hurupay FDV above $10M one day after launch?No66552.2¢94.5¢$629+$281$0
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?No1,10058.1¢53.5¢$589−$50$0
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes68768.3¢85.5¢$587+$118$0
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?No2,02855.1¢28¢$568−$550$0
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?Yes70067¢76.5¢$536+$67$0
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?No55071¢95¢$522+$132$0
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes50091¢96.2¢$481+$26$0
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?No1,25082¢36.5¢$456−$569$0
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes50080¢90.5¢$453+$53$0
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?No50088¢88.5¢$443+$2.50$0
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?No50073¢88.5¢$443+$78$0
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Yes75060¢58.5¢$439−$11$0
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes50045.5¢87.1¢$435+$208$0
Benedict Cumberbatch as Doctor Strange?Yes5000¢85.5¢$428+$428$0
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes1,00063¢42¢$420−$210$0
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?No83520.4¢43.5¢$363+$192+$26
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?No50070.6¢71.7¢$358+$5.25$0
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026?Yes50072¢67.5¢$338−$23$0
Will the PQ win 55-59 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?Yes40026¢84.4¢$337+$233$0
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Yes75079¢42.5¢$319−$274−$172
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes50046¢63.5¢$318+$88$0
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch?No91875.5¢34¢$312−$381−$18
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes50061¢60.5¢$303−$2.50$0
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening week in 2026?No50055¢51.5¢$257−$17$0
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes55051.9¢43.3¢$238−$48$0
Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?No1,50034.4¢14.5¢$217−$298$0
Will The Odyssey be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?Yes50041¢39.5¢$198−$7.50$0
Anthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?Microsoft20061¢71.5¢$143+$21$0
Mark Ruffalo as Hulk?Yes20073¢67.5¢$135−$11$0
Tobey Maguire as Spider-Man?Yes11789¢90.9¢$106+$2.22$0
Will Doctor Strange die in Avengers: Doomsday?No11070¢65.8¢$72−$4.62$0
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?Yes80049.9¢8.1¢$65−$334$0
Will Charles Milliard be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?No4784¢99.7¢$47+$7.43$0
Will Christine Fréchette be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?No2976.8¢99.9¢$29+$6.68$0
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?Yes50012.3¢5.4¢$27−$35$0
Will Toy Story 5 have the 3rd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?Yes2887¢92.5¢$26+$1.52$0
Brie Larson as Captain Marvel?Yes270¢52.5¢$14+$14$0
Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?Yes777¢81.5¢$5.71+$0.32$0
Will Marvel's Wolverine win Game of the Year at the 2026 Game Awards?Yes433.8¢3.5¢$1.51−$0.13$0
Will CAQ finish in second place in the Quebec general election?Yes2,07545.8¢0¢$0−$950−$9.74
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes1,00023.9¢0¢$0−$239$0
Will PLQ finish in third place in the Quebec general election?Yes71063.8¢0¢$0−$453$0
Will PCQ finish in third place in the Quebec general election?No70168.1¢0¢$0−$478−$3.17
Trump renames AI by September 30?No67048¢0¢$0−$322−$6.69
Will the CAQ win 30 or more seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?Yes40444.4¢0¢$0−$180−$3.99
Will the CAQ win 25-29 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?Yes34625.3¢0¢$0−$88−$0.26
Will "Forgotten Island" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 13m?Yes30051.8¢0¢$0−$155$0
Will Frédéric Côté win the next La Prairie Quebec National Assembly election?Yes18818¢0¢$0−$34−$1.11
Will Guillaume Rousseau win the next Richmond Quebec National Assembly election?Yes9163¢0¢$0−$57−$0.85
Will the PQ win fewer than 50 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?Yes8166¢0¢$0−$53$0
Will the PQ win 65-69 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?Yes2915.8¢0¢$0−$4.51$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoWill STRC hit $100 by December 31?20¢700$14066%71Sharp
BUY YesWill Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?74¢1,011$74866%71Sharp
BUY YesWill Marie-Claude Sarrazin win the next Groulx Quebec National Assembly election?99¢106$10566%71Sharp
SELL YesWill Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?7¢750$5366%71Sharp
BUY YesWill Paul St-Pierre Plamondon be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?93¢320$29866%71Sharp
SELL YesWill Grand Theft Auto VI win Game of the Year at the 2026 Game Awards?66.2¢374$24866%71Sharp
SELL NoWill Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?99.2¢375$37266%71Sharp
BUY NoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?74¢1,000$74066%71Sharp
BUY NoStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?79¢1,500$1,18566%71Sharp
SELL NoWill STRC hit $100 by September 30?96¢593$56966%71Sharp
BUY YesTrump renames AI by December 31?68.5¢750$51466%71Sharp
BUY NoTrump renames AI by September 30?48¢670$32266%71Sharp
BUY YesWill Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?92¢358$33066%71Sharp
BUY YesWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?75¢455$34166%71Sharp
BUY NoWill Monero hit $1000 in 2026?68¢204$13966%71Sharp
BUY YesWill the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?61¢500$30566%71Sharp
BUY YesWill Paul St-Pierre Plamondon be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?87¢128$11166%71Sharp
BUY NoTesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?82¢540$44366%71Sharp
BUY YesWill Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?51.9¢550$28666%71Sharp
BUY Yes2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House62¢500$31066%71Sharp