sharpside
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Traders/Rank #869

Frosen

0x06e…f845@Frosen43
PnL 100k+PnL 50k+PnL 10k+WR 70+WR 60+1y+PoliticsCultureOther
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$235kvol $14.5M
PnL 30d−$50gains $0 · losses $0
PnL 7d−$14win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate75.3%adj 74.3% · 30d 0.0%
Open value$5,825cash n/a
Positions181 / 1,465open / all-time
Max drawdown−8.9%of equity peak
Account age1.9ylast trade 7mo ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$245kbelow peak −$23.6kOct 8

SharpScore inputs

69/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale77
Adjusted win rateraw 75.3% · shrunk toward 50%86
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d0
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity91

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 100

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? No4,54385.1¢97.4¢$4,425+$561+$955
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?Yes1,03857.7¢50¢$519−$80$0
Will the U.S. collect between $200b and $500b in revenue in 2025?No30065.5¢100¢$300+$104$0
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by March 31?No2747.9¢100¢$274+$253$0
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI?Yes22852.6¢50¢$114−$5.97$0
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No8097.3¢99.5¢$80+$1.73$0
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No2798.1¢100¢$27+$0.49$0
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No1898.1¢100¢$17+$0.32$0
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes2,6644.1¢0.6¢$16−$93+$17
OpenAI IPO before 2027?No1529.4¢97.3¢$15+$10$0
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes1496¢7.2¢$11+$1.86$0
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No997.7¢99.8¢$9.10+$0.19$0
Will GTA 6 cost $100+?No987¢100¢$9.09+$1.18+$95
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No698.1¢100¢$5.61+$0.10$0
Will Trump nominate James B. Bullard as the next Fed chair?No294.7¢100¢$2.44+$0.13+$23
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?No10.0k73¢0¢$0−$7,300$0
Will Trump nominate Barron Trump as the next Fed chair?Yes7,0002.5¢0¢$0−$175$0
Will Trump nominate himself as the next Fed chair?Yes7,0002.5¢0¢$0−$175$0
Will Trump nominate David Zervos as the next Fed chair?Yes6,9252.5¢0¢$0−$173+$1.05
Will Trump nominate Marc Sumerlin as the next Fed chair?Yes6,1722.5¢0¢$0−$154−$17
Tea App removed from App Store by August 31?Yes4,8546.1¢0¢$0−$294+$70
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair?Yes4,8112.5¢0¢$0−$120+$103
Will Elon apologize to Trump before August?Yes4,7644.2¢0¢$0−$201+$12
Biden diagnosed with prostate cancer while in office? Yes4,3003.2¢0¢$0−$140+$1.95
Will Elon Musk announce Presidential run in 2025?Yes4,0726.6¢0¢$0−$269+$195
Will Trump say "Charlie" or "Kirk" 5+ times during Fox & Friends appearance on September 12?No3,9626¢0¢$0−$238$0
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair?Yes3,8242.5¢0¢$0−$95+$9.31
Will Threads be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10?Yes3,7590.1¢0¢$0−$4.03+$2.50
Will the September 2025 unemployment rate be ≤4.0%?Yes3,6290.3¢0¢$0−$11$0
Will Kendrick Lamar rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?No3,59059.2¢0¢$0−$2,125+$257
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 40% on November 12?Yes3,43921.7¢0¢$0−$746+$163
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?Yes3,4329¢0¢$0−$309+$507
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on November 12?Yes3,18319.8¢0¢$0−$630+$125
Will Elon Musk rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?Yes3,16122¢0¢$0−$695+$17
Will the September 2025 unemployment rate be ≥4.5%?Yes3,1551.6¢0¢$0−$50$0
India agrees to reduce purchases Russian oil by August 31?Yes3,0819.9¢0¢$0−$306$0
Trump and Elon publicly reconcile before August?Yes3,0782.1¢0¢$0−$65+$13
Will Elon Musk be richest person on October 31?No3,0360.4¢0¢$0−$12+$64
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords in 2025?Yes2,94510.6¢0¢$0−$313$0
Will the September 2025 unemployment rate be 4.4%?Yes2,8806¢0¢$0−$172$0
Will Elon register the America Party in July?Yes2,6919.7¢0¢$0−$261$0
Will Trump say "Kim Jong Un" during events with South Korean president on August 25?No2,67742¢0¢$0−$1,124+$19
Will Google be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10?Yes2,5150.1¢0¢$0−$2.51+$6.84
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Canada in October?Yes2,4794.1¢0¢$0−$103+$42
Will the September 2025 unemployment rate be 4.1%?Yes2,4211.3¢0¢$0−$31$0
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Brazil in September?Yes2,4211.4¢0¢$0−$34$0
Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration in 2025?Yes2,39910.2¢0¢$0−$244+$197
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35–40 million views on day 1?Yes2,3721¢0¢$0−$24+$64
Missing Epstein cell footage released before August?Yes2,2820.7¢0¢$0−$16+$2.89
Will Trump say "Cynthia" or "Lummis" during the crypto bill signing ceremony on July 18?Yes2,2781.4¢0¢$0−$31$0
Will Trump meet with Nicolás Maduro in 2025?Yes2,2001.7¢0¢$0−$37$0
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in September?Yes2,16216.1¢0¢$0−$348$0
Will Donald Trump give Elon Musk a nickname before August?Yes2,1467.2¢0¢$0−$154+$83
Will Trump's UN speech be longer than 45 minutes?No2,1148.3¢0¢$0−$176$0
Ghislaine Maxwell accuses Trump of sexual misconduct?Yes2,0004.1¢0¢$0−$81−$258
Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?Yes1,98312.8¢0¢$0−$253$0
Fannie Mae IPO in 2025?Yes1,9593¢0¢$0−$60+$254
Trump cabinet member out by December 31, 2025?Yes1,93458.8¢0¢$0−$1,138+$3.43
Will Jensen Huang be richest person on October 31?Yes1,8700.1¢0¢$0−$1.87+$15
Will Trump talk to Narendra Modi in August?Yes1,8272¢0¢$0−$37$0
Will Trump say "Stroke" during his announcement on September 2?Yes1,8084.9¢0¢$0−$89$0
Will Trump talk to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in August?Yes1,78811¢0¢$0−$197$0
Will Tea Dating Advice be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10?Yes1,7700.1¢0¢$0−$1.77+$4.32
Will MrBeast's next video get between 100 and 110 million views on week 1?Yes1,7599.2¢0¢$0−$162$0
Will another MrBeast video get 55m+ day 1 views by September 30?Yes1,7500.1¢0¢$0−$1.75+$19
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in July?Yes1,7329¢0¢$0−$157+$1,763
Will Li Bin be announced as the next CEO of Tesla?Yes1,6410.7¢0¢$0−$12$0
Nothing Ever Happens: JulyNo1,52022.4¢0¢$0−$341$0
Kash Patel out by August 31?Yes1,5101.6¢0¢$0−$24$0
Will Trump say "Ship" or "Submarine" during events with South Korean president on August 25?No1,46315.9¢0¢$0−$233+$5.36
50% Brazil tariff in effect by August 1?Yes1,40977.1¢0¢$0−$1,087−$1.02
Will Trump say "Affordability" during Mamdani events on November 21?No1,39363.6¢0¢$0−$887$0
Will Bernard Arnault be richest person on October 31?Yes1,3430.1¢0¢$0−$1.34+$32
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on November 12?Yes1,32919.8¢0¢$0−$263−$224
Will Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin shake hands on Friday?No1,2603.2¢0¢$0−$40$0
Will Trump say "Drone war" in October?No1,2576.1¢0¢$0−$77$0
Will Trump remove 10% blanket tariff in 2025?Yes1,20810.9¢0¢$0−$131+$3.48
Bondi, Bongino or Patel out by August 31?Yes1,19617.5¢0¢$0−$210$0
Will Trump talk to Putin by November 30?Yes1,00017¢0¢$0−$170$0
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?Yes1,00027¢0¢$0−$270$0
Will Syria join the Abraham Accords in 2025?Yes9787.1¢0¢$0−$70$0
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the Energy and Innovation Summit on July 15?No9323.3¢0¢$0−$31+$33
Will Trump say "War" during 9-11 memorial event?No92121¢0¢$0−$193$0
Will Trump say "Seven Wars" during address to UN General Assembly on September 23?No9011¢0¢$0−$9.01$0
Will Trump and Ahmed al-Sharaa not shake hands on November 10 2025?No88532.3¢0¢$0−$285−$93
Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed in 2025?Yes8005¢0¢$0−$40+$5.63
Will Trump say "Tariff" during the Energy and Innovation Summit on July 15?No76026.4¢0¢$0−$201$0
Will Trump say "Syria" during events with Turkish president on September 25?No74740.8¢0¢$0−$305$0
Will Kanye West / Ye be the #2 searched person on Google this year?Yes7302.6¢0¢$0−$19$0
Current shutdown longest in U.S. history?No72976.9¢0¢$0−$560$0
Will JD Vance say "Tax" 7+ times during remarks in Wisconsin on August 28?No72814.4¢0¢$0−$105+$10
Will Trump say "Grocery" during Mamdani events on November 21?No71081.3¢0¢$0−$577$0
Will Levi Strauss & Co. (LEVI) beat quarterly earnings?No6078.1¢0¢$0−$49+$25
Will Trump say "Globalist" or "Globalism" during address to UN General Assembly on September 23?No60114.2¢0¢$0−$85+$944
Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration in 2025?Yes6003¢0¢$0−$18+$57
Will Charlie Kirk be the #1 searched person on Google this year?Yes5450.8¢0¢$0−$4.40+$423
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by July 31?Yes50017¢0¢$0−$85$0
Will Trump say "Elon" during the Energy and Innovation Summit on July 15?Yes5002¢0¢$0−$10$0
Harvard international students ban ended before August?Yes49032.6¢0¢$0−$160$0
Will Savannah Louie win Survivor season 49?No41411¢0¢$0−$46$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
SELL NoWill Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?99.9¢3,693$3,68975%69
SELL YesWill Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?0.4¢675$2.7075%69
SELL YesWill Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?0.5¢336$1.6875%69
SELL YesWill Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?0.3¢1,015$3.0575%69
SELL YesWill Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?0.3¢1,424$4.5875%69
SELL YesWill Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?0.6¢220$1.3475%69
SELL YesWill Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?1.1¢1,043$1175%69
SELL YesWill Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?2.1¢2,361$4975%69
SELL YesWill Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?9.1¢310$2875%69
BUY NoUS strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?73¢10.0k$7,30075%69
BUY YesWill Forsen beat xQc's Minecraft speedrun record by February 14?4¢25$1.0075%69
SELL NoKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?61¢400$24475%69
BUY YesWill Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?9¢3,432$30975%69
BUY NoKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?56¢298$16775%69
SELL NoWill a contestant numbered 151 - 175 win Beast Games: Season 2?29¢30$8.7075%69
BUY NoWill a contestant numbered 151 - 175 win Beast Games: Season 2?30.4¢288$8775%69
BUY NoNew "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? 88¢4,400$3,87275%69
BUY NoNew "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? 84¢25$2175%69
BUY NoNew "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? 84¢1,800$1,51275%69
BUY NoNew "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? 84¢4,985$4,18775%69