| Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026? | No | 2,395 | 87.5¢ | 92¢ | $2,204 | +$108 | −$282 | |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31? | Yes | 4,723 | 47.8¢ | 44¢ | $2,078 | −$180 | +$50 | |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting? | No | 1,502 | 64.5¢ | 68.5¢ | $1,029 | +$61 | −$18 | |
| Pakistan military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026? | No | 1,190 | 75.4¢ | 77.9¢ | $926 | +$29 | −$51 | |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 31? | No | 1,003 | 73.7¢ | 81.5¢ | $817 | +$78 | $0 | |
| U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by December 31? | No | 576 | 81.9¢ | 95¢ | $547 | +$75 | $0 | |
| Andy Burnham out as UK PM by December 31? | No | 500 | 93¢ | 93¢ | $465 | −$0.25 | $0 | |
| Israel military action against Greater Beirut by October 31? | No | 500 | 83.6¢ | 92¢ | $460 | +$42 | $0 | |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? | No | 451 | 76.1¢ | 85¢ | $384 | +$40 | $0 | |
| Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31? | Yes | 2,522 | 24.8¢ | 15¢ | $378 | −$248 | +$197 | |
| US x Cuba military clash in 2026? | No | 437 | 77¢ | 86¢ | $376 | +$39 | +$1.26 | |
| GitHub Git Operations critical incident by October 15, 2026? | No | 388 | 78.5¢ | 91¢ | $353 | +$48 | $0 | |
| Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026? | No | 245 | 77.4¢ | 97.7¢ | $239 | +$50 | $0 | |
| Will Shabana Mahmood be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet? | No | 220 | 65.1¢ | 95.3¢ | $210 | +$66 | −$10 | |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 250 | 79.6¢ | 82.1¢ | $205 | +$6.13 | $0 | |
| Will Somali pirates successfully seize a vessel by September 30, 2026? | No | 219 | 79.9¢ | 91.8¢ | $201 | +$26 | $0 | |
| Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | No | 200 | 95¢ | 97.5¢ | $195 | +$4.90 | $0 | |
| Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026? | No | 200 | 90¢ | 93.5¢ | $187 | +$7.00 | −$37 | |
| Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026? | No | 230 | 74.1¢ | 75¢ | $173 | +$2.00 | $0 | |
| US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026? | No | 203 | 84¢ | 83.5¢ | $170 | −$1.02 | −$88 | |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31? | No | 182 | 80¢ | 92.5¢ | $169 | +$23 | $0 | |
| Another Fed rate hike in 2026? | Yes | 214 | 77¢ | 77.5¢ | $166 | +$1.07 | $0 | |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy) | No | 200 | 75.5¢ | 82.5¢ | $165 | +$14 | +$10 | |
| Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement? | Yes | 950 | 33.8¢ | 16.9¢ | $161 | −$161 | +$50 | |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | No | 155 | 88.6¢ | 96.4¢ | $149 | +$12 | $0 | |
| Astra removed from public access by October 31? | No | 153 | 93.9¢ | 97¢ | $148 | +$4.65 | $0 | |
| Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 15? | No | 200 | 57¢ | 70.5¢ | $141 | +$27 | −$94 | |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? | No | 150 | 91¢ | 93.5¢ | $140 | +$3.75 | $0 | |
| Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31? | Yes | 182 | 32.8¢ | 77¢ | $140 | +$80 | +$55 | |
| Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 800 | 11.7¢ | 14.5¢ | $116 | +$22 | +$68 | |
| Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? | No | 391 | 46.7¢ | 29.5¢ | $115 | −$67 | $0 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | Yes | 150 | 77.7¢ | 75.5¢ | $113 | −$3.25 | $0 | |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? | No | 495 | 8.4¢ | 22.5¢ | $111 | +$70 | +$2.20 | |
| Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? | Yes | 1,340 | 18.6¢ | 7.9¢ | $105 | −$144 | +$503 | |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 9, 2026? | No | 100 | 86.8¢ | 100¢ | $100 | +$13 | $0 | |
| Next DeepSeek Pro released by November 30, 2026? | Yes | 241 | 45¢ | 41¢ | $99 | −$9.58 | +$2.88 | |
| Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31? | No | 100 | 92¢ | 97.6¢ | $98 | +$5.60 | −$99 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | No | 100 | 93¢ | 95.5¢ | $96 | +$2.50 | −$48 | |
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | No | 100 | 89¢ | 92.5¢ | $93 | +$3.50 | −$36 | |
| Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026? | No | 100 | 93¢ | 92.5¢ | $93 | −$0.50 | $0 | |
| Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? | No | 100 | 90¢ | 92¢ | $92 | +$2.00 | −$392 | |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | 100 | 82¢ | 90.5¢ | $91 | +$8.50 | $0 | |
| Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31? | No | 100 | 90¢ | 89.5¢ | $90 | −$0.50 | $0 | |
| Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 15? | Yes | 294 | 8¢ | 29.5¢ | $87 | +$63 | +$213 | |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Iran by October 31, 2026? | No | 90 | 90.2¢ | 94.8¢ | $85 | +$4.12 | $0 | |
| Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement? | No | 95 | 85.3¢ | 83.1¢ | $79 | −$2.08 | −$76 | |
| Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by November 30? | Yes | 100 | 31¢ | 70.5¢ | $71 | +$40 | +$19 | |
| Next DeepSeek Pro released by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 345 | 25.4¢ | 20¢ | $69 | −$19 | $0 | |
| Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting? | Yes | 70 | 85¢ | 90¢ | $63 | +$3.50 | $0 | |
| Will one person dissent the December Fed decision? | No | 85 | 69.8¢ | 73.5¢ | $62 | +$3.11 | $0 | |
| Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by October 31? | No | 70 | 86¢ | 86.5¢ | $61 | +$0.35 | $0 | |
| Will the US announce a diesel export ban by December 31? | No | 59 | 86.4¢ | 89¢ | $52 | +$1.54 | $0 | |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? | Yes | 800 | 8.9¢ | 6.5¢ | $52 | −$19 | +$5.83 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | No | 60 | 79.7¢ | 83.5¢ | $50 | +$2.30 | +$5.25 | |
| Another critical Cloudflare incident by September 30, 2026? | No | 50 | 85.9¢ | 95.7¢ | $48 | +$4.88 | +$24 | |
| Will Houthis target Syria by October 31, 2026? | No | 50 | 92¢ | 94.5¢ | $47 | +$1.25 | $0 | |
| US strike on Colombia by December 31? | Yes | 200 | 25¢ | 23¢ | $46 | −$4.00 | $0 | |
| Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 8? | Yes | 50 | 42¢ | 91¢ | $46 | +$25 | $0 | |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | No | 50 | 81¢ | 89.5¢ | $45 | +$4.25 | $0 | |
| Jair Bolsonaro released from custody by March 31, 2027? | Yes | 68 | 55¢ | 60.5¢ | $41 | +$3.74 | $0 | |
| Will Houthis target Syria by December 31, 2026? | No | 50 | 78¢ | 81.5¢ | $41 | +$1.75 | $0 | |
| Russia strikes another vessel in the Black Sea by August 28, 2026? | Yes | 40 | 75.5¢ | 98.3¢ | $39 | +$9.10 | $0 | |
| Israeli airspace closed between Oct. 15 and Oct. 31? | No | 40 | 94¢ | 93.5¢ | $37 | −$0.20 | $0 | |
| No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 37 | 83¢ | 95.8¢ | $35 | +$4.69 | $0 | |
| Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire by September 30? | No | 30 | 93.1¢ | 99.1¢ | $30 | +$1.77 | $0 | |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? | Yes | 1,000 | 1.8¢ | 2.9¢ | $30 | +$11 | $0 | |
| Will the UK Budget include an increase to capital gains tax? | No | 45 | 36.3¢ | 57.5¢ | $26 | +$9.55 | +$13 | |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting? | Yes | 1,600 | 1.8¢ | 1.5¢ | $23 | −$5.04 | $0 | |
| Will Trump raise tariffs on Canada by September 30? | No | 30 | 89¢ | 72¢ | $22 | −$5.10 | $0 | |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 50 | 49¢ | 37.5¢ | $19 | −$5.75 | $0 | |
| Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on September 18? | No | 20 | 52¢ | 92¢ | $18 | +$8.00 | −$0.40 | |
| Jones Act domestic shipping requirements removed by December 31? | No | 20 | 80¢ | 92¢ | $18 | +$2.40 | $0 | |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 16 | 87.3¢ | 91¢ | $15 | +$0.60 | −$445 | |
| Will two people dissent the December Fed decision? | No | 15 | 79.6¢ | 86.8¢ | $13 | +$1.08 | $0 | |
| Mohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by December 31, 2026? | No | 15 | 74¢ | 86.5¢ | $13 | +$1.84 | $0 | |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31? | No | 21 | 54¢ | 56¢ | $12 | +$0.41 | +$60 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 15, 2026? | Yes | 150 | 67.8¢ | 7¢ | $10 | −$91 | −$18 | |
| EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by December 31? | Yes | 11 | 82¢ | 90.5¢ | $9.84 | +$0.92 | $0 | |
| China ballistic missile launch by December 31? | Yes | 53 | 27.2¢ | 17.5¢ | $9.22 | −$5.13 | +$13 | |
| Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? | No | 10 | 85¢ | 90.5¢ | $9.05 | +$0.55 | −$489 | |
| Will Donald Trump visit Oman in 2026? | No | 9 | 89¢ | 99.1¢ | $9.00 | +$0.91 | $0 | |
| Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 10 | 70¢ | 86¢ | $8.60 | +$1.60 | $0 | |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 20? | No | 20 | 45¢ | 39.8¢ | $7.95 | −$1.05 | $0 | |
| Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? | Yes | 59 | 16¢ | 13.5¢ | $7.95 | −$1.47 | +$12 | |
| Will Trump not endorse a Party in the 2026 Israeli Election? | No | 50 | 62¢ | 15.5¢ | $7.75 | −$23 | $0 | |
| Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting? | No | 100 | 24¢ | 7¢ | $7.00 | −$17 | +$5.06 | |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "European Union" before 2027? | Yes | 101 | 12.5¢ | 6.7¢ | $6.71 | −$5.88 | $0 | |
| Next Grok Model (4.8+) released by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 50 | 32¢ | 13¢ | $6.50 | −$9.50 | $0 | |
| NATO downs another Russian drone by October 15? | Yes | 50 | 35¢ | 11.5¢ | $5.75 | −$12 | $0 | |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | Yes | 50 | 26¢ | 11¢ | $5.50 | −$7.50 | −$14 | |
| Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 10.8k | 0.2¢ | 0.1¢ | $5.38 | −$16 | $0 | |
| Will Iran target Oman by October 31, 2026? | No | 4 | 89.1¢ | 93.4¢ | $3.46 | +$0.16 | $0 | |
| Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 100 | 5.1¢ | 3.4¢ | $3.35 | −$1.79 | $0 | |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Mexico" before 2027? | Yes | 25 | 16¢ | 12.5¢ | $3.17 | −$0.89 | +$1.27 | |
| Fed rate cut by July 2027 meeting? | No | 6 | 21¢ | 49.5¢ | $3.10 | +$1.79 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 9, 2026? | No | 3 | 91.1¢ | 99.3¢ | $2.59 | +$0.21 | $0 | |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 15 | 68¢ | 15.5¢ | $2.32 | −$7.87 | −$1,171 | |
| GitHub Git Operations critical incident by October 15, 2026? | Yes | 19 | 7¢ | 9¢ | $1.71 | +$0.38 | $0 | |
| OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by October 15? | No | 30 | 58¢ | 4¢ | $1.20 | −$16 | $0 | |
| Will Pete Hegseth be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee? | Yes | 100 | 0.3¢ | 1¢ | $0.95 | +$0.65 | $0 | |