PnL all-time+$199kvol $35.6M
PnL 30d+$0.36gains $0 · losses $0
PnL 7d−$0.23win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate70.7%adj 69.9% · 30d 0.0%
Open value$102cash n/a
Positions11 / 1,091open / all-time
Max drawdown−14.7%of equity peak
Account age2.4ylast trade 4d ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL+$199kbelow peak −$1,843Oct 10
SharpScore inputs
77/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale76
Adjusted win rateraw 70.7% · shrunk toward 50%75
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d84
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity85
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
Worst markets
Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday? · Yesclosed−$11.7kRussia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? · Noclosed−$8,182Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? · Yesclosed−$5,984Will the government shutdown end November 13? · Yesclosed−$5,397US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026? · Noclosed−$4,252
Open positions · 11
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 100 | 85¢ | 84.5¢ | $85 | −$0.50 | +$472 | |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 15 | 50¢ | 81¢ | $12 | +$4.64 | −$3.45 | |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 5 | 79¢ | 97.8¢ | $4.89 | +$0.94 | $0 | |
| Over $6M committed to the Trove public sale? | No | 985 | 19.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$196 | +$99 | |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by March 31? | Yes | 149 | 19.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$29 | $0 | |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | No | 96 | 92¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$88 | $0 | |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | Yes | 50 | 51¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$26 | $0 | |
| LoL: DRX vs T1 (BO3) | DRX | 50 | 9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$4.50 | $0 | |
| Will Hezbollah disarm by March 31? | Yes | 45 | 6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2.69 | $0 | |
| Foreign intervention in Gaza by March 31? | Yes | 7 | 18¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.29 | $0 | |
| European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? | Yes | 6 | 19¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.14 | $0 |
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