PnL all-time+$164vol $16.8k
PnL 30d+$21gains $22 · losses $0
PnL 7d+$2,163win rate 7d 100.0%
Win rate80.0%adj 62.9% · 30d 100.0%
Open value$0cash n/a
Positions6 / 21open / all-time
Max drawdown−4.3%of equity peak
Account age3.1ylast trade 21d ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL+$164below peak $0Oct 14
SharpScore inputs
34/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale32
Adjusted win rateraw 80.0% · shrunk toward 50%57
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable44
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d28
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity96
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? · Noclosed+$184Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 90m? · Noclosed+$83>3.1 million TSA travelers any day November 23-30? · Yesclosed+$36Will MrBeast hit 474 Million subscribers by March 31? · Yesclosed+$33Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 24-August 30? · Yesclosed+$30
Worst markets
Will 'Smile 2' gross less than $21m opening weekend? · Yesclosed−$98Kamala Harris 538 odds >55% on Friday? · Yesopen−$93Will Biden's 538 approval reach 40% in August? · Noclosed−$64Will 40 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13? · Yesopen−$1.00Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? · Yesopen−$0.90
Open positions · 6
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamala Harris 538 odds >55% on Friday? | Yes | 200 | 46.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$93 | $0 | |
| Will 40 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13? | Yes | 100 | 1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.00 | $0 | |
| Will 175-199 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12? | Yes | 100 | 0.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$0.10 | $0 | |
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 100 | 0.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$0.90 | $0 | |
| Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16? | Yes | 100 | 0.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$0.20 | $0 | |
| Will 'The Equalizer 3' gross over $35m Labor Day weekend? | No | 30 | 0.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$0.03 | $0 |
Recent trades
auto-refresh 30s