| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | No | 26.4k | 92¢ | 91.5¢ | $24.2k | −$132 | $0 | |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | No | 19.5k | 77.3¢ | 89.5¢ | $17.5k | +$2,378 | $0 | |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 14.8k | 63.4¢ | 84.5¢ | $12.5k | +$3,107 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 12.8k | 52.3¢ | 95.5¢ | $12.2k | +$5,507 | $0 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 12.8k | 81.8¢ | 84.5¢ | $10.8k | +$350 | $0 | |
| Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? | No | 10.6k | 74.1¢ | 95¢ | $10.1k | +$2,221 | $0 | |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | No | 8,990 | 84.9¢ | 88.5¢ | $7,956 | +$322 | $0 | |
| Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | No | 8,432 | 76.4¢ | 61.5¢ | $5,186 | −$1,253 | $0 | |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? | No | 4,512 | 71.4¢ | 85.5¢ | $3,858 | +$638 | $0 | |
| Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? | No | 2,322 | 59.7¢ | 91.5¢ | $2,124 | +$739 | $0 | |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | Yes | 6,799 | 35.9¢ | 27.5¢ | $1,870 | −$573 | $0 | |
| Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 2,201 | 72¢ | 71.5¢ | $1,574 | −$11 | $0 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 3,569 | 49.8¢ | 36.5¢ | $1,303 | −$475 | −$22 | |
| Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures? | No | 1,288 | 48.6¢ | 93.5¢ | $1,204 | +$578 | $0 | |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 2,981 | 54.8¢ | 35.5¢ | $1,058 | −$576 | −$225 | |
| Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 4,456 | 8.1¢ | 23.5¢ | $1,049 | +$688 | $0 | |
| Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? | No | 1,120 | 86¢ | 87¢ | $974 | +$11 | $0 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 1,005 | 68¢ | 71.5¢ | $719 | +$35 | $0 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 1,005 | 52¢ | 55.5¢ | $558 | +$35 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 885 | 41.1¢ | 58.3¢ | $516 | +$152 | $0 | |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 3,058 | 7¢ | 15.2¢ | $463 | +$248 | $0 | |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 7,541 | 5.4¢ | 5.9¢ | $449 | +$39 | $0 | |
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 7,070 | 6.4¢ | 5.1¢ | $357 | −$99 | $0 | |
| Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? | No | 372 | 53¢ | 95.5¢ | $356 | +$158 | $0 | |
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | Yes | 2,734 | 15.8¢ | 13¢ | $355 | −$78 | $0 | |
| Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 23.0k | 0.6¢ | 1.4¢ | $310 | +$172 | $0 | |
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | Yes | 2,342 | 13.6¢ | 12¢ | $281 | −$37 | $0 | |
| Will Manchester United qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Champions League? | Yes | 539 | 50¢ | 44¢ | $237 | −$32 | −$0.80 | |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 559 | 33¢ | 36.5¢ | $204 | +$20 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? | No | 1,005 | 20¢ | 18.5¢ | $186 | −$15 | $0 | |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | Yes | 816 | 43¢ | 19¢ | $155 | −$196 | −$39 | |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | No | 274 | 60.8¢ | 36.5¢ | $100 | −$66 | −$244 | |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 600 | 3¢ | 15.1¢ | $90 | +$72 | $0 | |
| Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 13.7k | 1.4¢ | 0.7¢ | $89 | −$106 | $0 | |
| Will Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary General of the United Nations? | No | 138 | 49¢ | 62.5¢ | $86 | +$19 | $0 | |
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 3,000 | 2.5¢ | 2.8¢ | $83 | +$7.50 | $0 | |
| Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 8,070 | 3.8¢ | 0.7¢ | $56 | −$253 | $0 | |
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | Yes | 1,000 | 12.9¢ | 5.3¢ | $53 | −$76 | $0 | |
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | Yes | 674 | 14¢ | 7.5¢ | $51 | −$44 | $0 | |
| Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.2m barrels per day in 2026? | Yes | 85 | 25¢ | 59¢ | $50 | +$29 | $0 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes | 180 | 78.2¢ | 18.5¢ | $33 | −$107 | −$1,922 | |
| Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | 3,845 | 1.7¢ | 0.3¢ | $9.61 | −$57 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 824 | 21.6¢ | 1.1¢ | $8.65 | −$169 | $0 | |
| Will Fulham qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Champions League? | Yes | 210 | 2¢ | 1.6¢ | $3.35 | −$0.94 | $0 | |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | Yes | 6 | 18.3¢ | 8.5¢ | $0.53 | −$0.62 | −$70 | |
| Will Anthropic not IPO before 2028? | Yes | 23 | 1.3¢ | 1.5¢ | $0.34 | +$0.05 | $0 | |
| Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | 271 | 2.9¢ | 0.1¢ | $0.14 | −$7.72 | $0 | |
| Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | 118 | 4.3¢ | 0.1¢ | $0.06 | −$5.01 | $0 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | No | 4,476 | 80¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3,581 | $0 | |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | Yes | 4,247 | 44.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,879 | −$1,165 | |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 3,560 | 2.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$100 | −$1.69 | |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 2,299 | 16¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$368 | $0 | |
| Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 Men's US Open? | Yes | 2,259 | 7.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$163 | −$4.53 | |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? | No | 2,090 | 91.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,919 | $0 | |
| Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | Yes | 2,033 | 8.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$173 | −$4.74 | |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | Yes | 1,959 | 67.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,315 | $0 | |
| Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? | No | 1,657 | 41.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$692 | $0 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 1,470 | 78.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,159 | $0 | |
| Will Darline Graham win at least 30% of votes in the SC Republican Senate special primary runoff? | No | 1,409 | 1.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$17 | $0 | |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1,339 | 10.8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$145 | +$151 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | No | 1,110 | 69¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$766 | $0 | |
| No listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027 | Yes | 1,108 | 12.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$134 | +$25 | |
| Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31? | Yes | 935 | 11¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$103 | $0 | |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? | Yes | 859 | 3.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$30 | $0 | |
| Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12? | Yes | 617 | 54.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$335 | $0 | |
| Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 3 Spain? | Yes | 590 | 6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$35 | −$1.00 | |
| Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? | Yes | 589 | 70¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$412 | $0 | |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | No | 575 | 40.6¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$234 | −$84 | |
| Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | Yes | 441 | 8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$35 | −$1.30 | |
| Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Bosnia and Herzegovina? | Yes | 440 | 3.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$15 | −$0.45 | |
| United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Team to Advance | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 440 | 17¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$75 | $0 | |
| Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Argentina? | Yes | 400 | 10¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$40 | −$1.80 | |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? | No | 330 | 61¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$201 | $0 | |
| Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Morocco? | Yes | 300 | 15¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$45 | −$1.15 | |
| Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first? | Leadership Change | 298 | 30¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$89 | $0 | |
| Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 2 Spain? | Yes | 259 | 9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$23 | −$0.64 | |
| ICE Shooter fired/resigns by March 31? | Yes | 220 | 15¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$33 | $0 | |
| Spread: Spain (-1.5) | Spain | 200 | 28¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$56 | −$1.21 | |
| Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? | Yes | 142 | 39.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$56 | $0 | |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? | Yes | 100 | 1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.00 | $0 | |
| Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19? | No | 91 | 74¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$67 | $0 | |
| Will Netflix close Warner Bros acquisition? | Yes | 67 | 46.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$31 | −$1,268 | |
| Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? | Yes | 65 | 37¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$24 | $0 | |
| Will Marcus Rashford stay at Manchester United? | No | 30 | 32.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$9.72 | −$0.33 | |
| Will Robert Lewandowski be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season? | Yes | 30 | 3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$0.90 | $0 | |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? | Yes | 28 | 10.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3.05 | $0 | |
| Will Ukraine agree to give up Russian territory in Kursk? | Yes | 22 | 53.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$12 | −$597 | |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | No | 22 | 68¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$15 | $0 | |
| Trump signs housing bill by end of July? | Yes | 18 | 56¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$10 | −$0.18 | |
| Nothing Ever Happens: August | Yes | 13 | 62¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$8.16 | $0 | |
| Will Trump pardon CZ by October 31? | No | 12 | 79¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$9.30 | $0 | |
| Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? | No | 9 | 60¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$5.26 | $0 | |