sharpside
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Traders/Unranked

ourdemocracy

0x08c…a2ef
SharpWR 80+WR 70+WR 60+1y+PoliticsOtherCrypto
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$3,869vol $4.29M
PnL 30d+$1,302gains $2,074 · losses $545
PnL 7d+$136win rate 7d 100.0%
Win rate86.0%adj 84.6% · 30d 86.4%
Open value$35.0kcash n/a
Positions68 / 638open / all-time
Max drawdown−35.1%of equity peak
Account age1.3ylast trade 3d ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$6,639below peak −$823Oct 12

SharpScore inputs

74/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale51
Adjusted win rateraw 86.0% · shrunk toward 50%100
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable93
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d89
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity65

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? · Yesclosed+$41.5kWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? · Yesclosed+$11.2kFed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? · Noclosed+$7,213Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? · Yesclosed+$5,971Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? · Yesclosed+$2,844

Worst markets

Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? · Yesclosed−$22.4kNo change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? · Yesclosed−$20.7kFed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? · Noclosed−$9,672Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? · Yesclosed−$5,528Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? · Yesclosed−$5,450

Open positions · 68

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?No8,95188.3¢89.5¢$8,012+$108−$153
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?No3,04991.4¢91.5¢$2,790+$2.76$0
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in October?No2,71897.1¢97.8¢$2,658+$20$0
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?No2,00094.1¢93¢$1,860−$21$0
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?No1,96775.5¢89.5¢$1,760+$275$0
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?No1,62796¢96.7¢$1,572+$9.79$0
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in December?No1,64090.7¢95¢$1,558+$71−$12
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?No1,56690.9¢92.6¢$1,450+$27$0
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31?No1,50094.7¢95.5¢$1,433+$13$0
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?No1,50479.1¢81.5¢$1,226+$37$0
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?No1,50579.9¢78.5¢$1,181−$21$0
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in October?No1,00098.2¢98.8¢$988+$6.01$0
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in October?No1,00098.7¢97.2¢$972−$15$0
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?No89283¢83¢$740$0$0
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $200 in October?No65096.7¢98.1¢$637+$8.51$0
Will a 8.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by October 31?No66693.8¢92.2¢$614−$11$0
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?No55586.5¢92.4¢$513+$33−$27
Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?No51090.5¢96.1¢$490+$29$0
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?No50093¢93.5¢$468+$2.50$0
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026?No40774.5¢90¢$366+$63$0
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in October?No30097.5¢97.8¢$293+$0.90$0
Will Solana dip to $80 in October?No30097.3¢94.7¢$284−$7.95$0
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?No28996.6¢94.9¢$274−$5.06$0
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027?No32193.3¢84¢$270−$30$0
Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by October 31?No30090¢87.5¢$263−$7.50$0
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?No30083¢83.5¢$251+$1.50−$13
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in October?No20095.9¢99.2¢$198+$6.50$0
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?No20093¢97¢$194+$7.90+$300
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?No20044¢95¢$190+$102$0
Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026?No19487.6¢96.2¢$187+$17+$28
Will Trump visit Greenland by October 31?No18397.6¢99.1¢$181+$2.66$0
Will Tucker Carlson announce a presidential run before 2027?No15089¢98¢$147+$13$0
Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by December 31, 2026?No16668¢79.5¢$132+$19$0
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseYes38835¢28.5¢$110−$25$0
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in October?No12097¢91.9¢$110−$6.12$0
US congress stock trading ban before 2027?No10294¢94.4¢$96+$0.36$0
Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?No10095¢92.5¢$93−$2.50$0
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in October?No8197.5¢97.4¢$79−$0.10$0
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?No10056¢70.5¢$71+$15$0
Gavin Newsom or his wife federally charged by December 31, 2026? No8587.4¢74.5¢$63−$11$0
RFK Jr. Out by October 31?No5797.9¢96.5¢$55−$0.80$0
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?Yes54813¢9.5¢$52−$19−$377
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.6T by October 31?No5096.1¢97.6¢$49+$0.75$0
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $900B by October 31?No5096¢94.3¢$47−$0.88$0
Will Elon Musk announce Presidential run before 2027?No3891.6¢97¢$37+$2.06$0
JD Vance Republican nomination odds leader on October 31?Yes3098¢97.3¢$29−$0.21$0
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027?No492.3¢93.3¢$3.97+$0.04+$1.67
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2026?No292.9¢96.9¢$1.94+$0.08+$0.94
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in September?Yes16.7k0.3¢0¢$0−$50$0
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?Yes1,0000.1¢0¢$0−$1.00$0
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Yes56722¢0¢$0−$125$0
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?No30471.9¢0¢$0−$218+$4.29
Solana above $200 on August 15?Yes20055.2¢0¢$0−$110$0
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $70 by end of January?Yes1535.9¢0¢$0−$9.05$0
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or higher on May 4?Yes1503.5¢0¢$0−$5.25−$0.25
Will Google reach $355 in April?No14193.8¢0¢$0−$132$0
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in May?No10098¢0¢$0−$98$0
Will Hyperliquid reach $76 in August?No10097.5¢0¢$0−$97−$0.17
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?No10094.4¢0¢$0−$94$0
Will Russia capture Riasne by May 31?No9897.2¢0¢$0−$95$0
Will MrBeast hit 480 million subscribers by April 30?No7986.3¢0¢$0−$69−$47
Will Amazon reach $260 in April?No6697.9¢0¢$0−$65$0
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% in September?No5898.1¢0¢$0−$57−$0.05
Will MrBeast hit 124 billion views by May 31?No3896.7¢0¢$0−$37−$0.06
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by August 31, 2026?No2762.7¢0¢$0−$17−$0.32
Will Google reach $375 in April?No2098¢0¢$0−$20$0
Will MrBeast hit 124.5 billion views by May 31?No1297¢0¢$0−$12−$0.02
Will MrBeast hit 465 Million subscribers by January 31?No834¢0¢$0−$2.72−$32

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoWill Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in October?98.2¢1,000$98286%74Sharp
BUY NoWill Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in October?97¢530$51486%74Sharp
BUY NoWill Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in October?97¢1,000$97086%74Sharp
BUY NoWill OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $900B by October 31?96¢50$4886%74Sharp
BUY NoRFK Jr. Out by October 31?97.9¢57$5686%74Sharp
BUY NoWill S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in December?94¢195$18386%74Sharp
BUY NoPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?81.6¢500$40886%74Sharp
BUY NoWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in October?97.5¢81$7986%74Sharp
BUY NoWill Ethereum dip to $1,800 in October?97.5¢300$29386%74Sharp
BUY NoWill Solana dip to $80 in October?97.3¢300$29286%74Sharp
BUY NoWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in October?98.7¢1,000$98786%74Sharp
BUY NoWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in October?97¢120$11686%74Sharp
BUY NoWill Bitcoin reach $105,000 in October?95.9¢200$19286%74Sharp
BUY NoWill Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in October?97.2¢1,188$1,15486%74Sharp
BUY NoWill Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?91¢1,000$91086%74Sharp
BUY NoPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?79¢100$7986%74Sharp
BUY NoIran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?83¢575$47786%74Sharp
BUY NoWill Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026?92¢100$9286%74Sharp
BUY NoWill Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?92¢100$9286%74Sharp
BUY NoWill Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?97.5¢250$24486%74Sharp