sharpside
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Traders/Rank #3,670

rocky42022

0x08c…f301
PnL 10k+1y+WeatherPoliticsSport
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$20.5kvol $8.71M
PnL 30d−$1,159gains $3,227 · losses $3,339
PnL 7d−$532win rate 7d 47.2%
Win rate47.6%adj 47.7% · 30d 47.5%
Open value$4,941cash n/a
Positions133 / 4,276open / all-time
Max drawdown0%of equity peak
Account age1.3ylast trade 2d ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

Not enough history to draw an equity curve.

SharpScore inputs

65/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale62
Adjusted win rateraw 47.6% · shrunk toward 50%19
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d92
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity100

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 89

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?No81122.2¢93¢$754+$574$0
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?No53049.8¢69.5¢$369+$105+$139
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?Yes30098.7¢99.1¢$297+$1.07+$2.50
Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026?No1,18814.3¢22.5¢$267+$98+$16
Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026?No32777.5¢77¢$252−$1.62−$6.22
Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?No25896.8¢97.1¢$250+$0.74−$3.12
No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?No28082.1¢89.4¢$250+$20−$70
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?No25594.3¢94.5¢$241+$0.40+$7.21
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on October 30?No41448.2¢49¢$203+$3.44+$1.39
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on October 30?No19282.5¢79.5¢$153−$5.73−$2.97
Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?Yes30050¢46¢$138−$12$0
Will the Republicans win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026?No10997.1¢97.2¢$106+$0.05+$0.92
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on October 30?No11680.1¢86¢$99+$6.82+$0.22
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 AZ-04 House election by 20%-25%?Yes30030¢29¢$87−$3.00$0
Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?Yes9588.1¢88.9¢$85+$0.83+$7.80
Will no next Israeli Minister of Justice be appointed by February 28, 2027?Yes16044.7¢52¢$83+$12+$14
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on October 30?No24543.3¢34¢$83−$23+$0.52
Will any state enact a data center moratorium by December 31?Yes30018.5¢26.9¢$81+$25$0
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on October 30?Yes8241.9¢88¢$73+$38+$21
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch?No7585¢95.6¢$72+$7.88−$47
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a Presidential run before 2027?Yes82715.7¢8¢$66−$64+$60
Will Chovy win Worlds 2026 Finals MVP?No7081¢83.5¢$59+$1.76$0
Oracle downgraded to junk by Moody's or S&P by June 30, 2027?Yes17330¢33.5¢$58+$6.14+$0.40
Will the Democrats win Tarrant County in the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes5091.2¢94.9¢$48+$1.84+$0.40
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?Yes23933.8¢19¢$45−$35−$10
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on October 30?No4566.5¢92.5¢$42+$12+$0.15
Will BNB reach $1500 by December 31, 2026?Yes84535.9¢4.6¢$39−$265−$0.16
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 30?Yes8545¢42.5¢$36−$2.12−$8.07
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on October 30?No3585.3¢98.3¢$34+$4.53$0
Will Riyadh airport reopen (50+ departures) by November 15?Yes7536¢45¢$34+$6.75$0
Will the Democrats win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026?No1,1512.4¢2.7¢$31+$3.61+$3.77
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?Yes45950.6¢6.2¢$28−$204+$35
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on October 30?No32939.8¢8.5¢$28−$103−$0.52
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?No3383.2¢83.8¢$28+$0.18+$23
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch?Yes6952.5¢3.8¢$26+$8.48−$1.10
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on October 30?No20318.6¢12¢$24−$13+$1.76
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?Yes2996¢7.5¢$22+$4.48−$24
Over $180B wagered on US sports betting in 2026?Yes4072¢55.5¢$22−$6.60$0
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on October 30?Yes13610.3¢14¢$19+$4.99$0
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?Yes21719.5¢6.5¢$14−$28+$322
Will Trump's approval rating be at least 39.0 on October 30, 2026?Yes12413.9¢9.5¢$12−$5.51$0
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?Yes7368.7¢1.6¢$12−$52−$15
Will Oprah Winfrey announce a Presidential run before 2027?Yes34014.2¢3.5¢$12−$37−$15
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.20 and $2.30 in October?Yes1961¢61¢$12$0$0
Will the Winnipeg Jets record 90+ points?No2058¢57.5¢$12−$0.10$0
Will Parker Posey be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?Yes11622¢9.5¢$11−$15+$1.32
Xi Jinping divorce before 2027?Yes1,1231.4¢1¢$11−$5.22+$0.11
Will Andrey Gyurov win the most votes in the second round of the Bulgaria presidential election from abroad?No1187.5¢9¢$11+$1.82+$6.61
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on October 30?No1172.7¢90.5¢$10+$2.03+$1.80
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?Yes8015.5¢12.5¢$10−$2.38−$39
Will John Thune announce a presidential run before 2027?Yes20416¢4.7¢$9.59−$23$0
Will Tucker Carlson announce a presidential run before 2027?Yes22215¢4.3¢$9.53−$24−$4.71
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes2661.7¢3.6¢$9.43+$4.91+$97
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on October 30?Yes11534.6¢7.5¢$8.65−$31−$4.25
Will any aircraft land or take off at Kyiv Boryspil Airport by October 31?Yes39516.1¢2.2¢$8.48−$55$0
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes7411¢10.5¢$7.82−$0.37+$4.06
Will Trump's approval rating be at least 37.0 on October 30, 2026?No2877.5¢2.7¢$7.75−$14+$2.43
Will Democrats win white women in the midterms?No2529¢29¢$7.25$0$0
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes3002.1¢2.3¢$6.74+$0.45+$73
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026?Yes7913.2¢8.1¢$6.36−$4.10$0
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on October 30?Yes6224.9¢9.5¢$5.92−$9.61+$11
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?No1341¢41.5¢$5.51+$0.07−$82
Will Kristi Noem announce a presidential run before 2027?Yes16511.2¢3.3¢$5.45−$13$0
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on October 30?Yes856¢66¢$5.38+$0.82+$1.65
Will Trump's approval rating be at least 40.0 on October 30, 2026?Yes3008.8¢1.4¢$4.20−$22−$0.35
Will Rihanna have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?No14842.3¢2.8¢$4.07−$59−$6.03
Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?No3614.1¢11.1¢$4.02−$1.13−$0.25
Will Ivanka Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?Yes1357.1¢2.9¢$3.97−$5.65+$17
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on October 30?Yes855.2¢4.5¢$3.77−$0.64$0
Will Peyz win Worlds 2026 Finals MVP?Yes4911¢7.5¢$3.67−$1.71−$0.61
Over $200B wagered on US sports betting in 2026?Yes2038¢17.5¢$3.50−$4.10$0
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch?Yes724.8¢4.3¢$3.08−$0.32−$89
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?No1033.3¢2.9¢$3.03−$0.39−$108
Will "Babydoll — Dominic Fike" be the top song for 2026?Yes2313¢12.4¢$2.90−$0.16+$3.84
Will Alphabet’s market capitalization be between $3.50T and $4.00T at the end of October 2026?No365¢72.2¢$2.32+$0.23−$32
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes6593.2¢0.4¢$2.31−$19+$0.09
Will Clayton Johnson win The Bachelorette Season 22?Yes83120.2¢0.3¢$2.08−$166$0
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.20 and $2.30 in October?No537¢39¢$2.01+$0.10$0
Will John Fetterman announce a Presidential run before 2027?Yes4011¢4.9¢$1.97−$2.46+$2.72
Will Jon Ossoff announce a Presidential run before 2027?Yes422.4¢4.6¢$1.94+$0.93$0
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes1,2392.6¢0.2¢$1.86−$30−$5.92
Turkish troops enter Yemen by October 31, 2026?Yes757.5¢2.5¢$1.83−$3.78$0
Will the Democrats win Tarrant County in the Texas Senate race in 2026?No329.2¢5.1¢$1.66−$1.34−$2.45
Will Alex Pereira be the UFC Light Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?No235¢99.2¢$1.55+$1.00+$6.98
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes2992.1¢0.5¢$1.35−$4.96+$159
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes2862.1¢0.5¢$1.29−$4.72+$240
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes1,2501.7¢0.1¢$1.25−$20−$51
Will Democrats win exactly 2 House seats in Iowa in the 2026 midterm elections?Yes527¢24¢$1.25−$0.16$0
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes1152.6¢1.1¢$1.20−$1.80$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
SELL YesWill David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?16.3¢299$4948%65
SELL NoWill FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-21?58¢150$8748%65
SELL HAVUCounter-Strike: Inner Circle Academy vs HAVU (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #12 Group Stage40¢166$6648%65
SELL NoWill Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?95.4¢100$9548%65
SELL NoWill the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on October 20?46¢15$6.9048%65
SELL YesWill "Babydoll — Dominic Fike" be the top song for 2026?12.6¢27$3.4048%65
SELL NoWill the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on October 19?54¢30$1648%65
SELL NoWill Vitality Win the ESL Pro League Season 24?54¢50$2748%65
SELL YesWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on October 10?41¢5$2.0548%65
SELL NoWill Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?57¢109$6248%65
SELL LGD GamingDota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs11¢85$9.3548%65
SELL LGD GamingDota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs11¢112$1248%65
SELL LGD GamingDota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs11¢112$1248%65
SELL NoWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?55¢153$8448%65
SELL NoWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?55¢222$12248%65
SELL NoWill Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?59¢145$8648%65
SELL YesWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on October 8?43¢46$2048%65
SELL YesWill François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?5.1¢58$2.9648%65
SELL NoWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 1 to October 3, 2026?90.5¢81$7348%65
SELL YesWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 1 to October 3, 2026?12.2¢43$5.2548%65