PnL all-time+$1,294vol $78.8k
PnL 30d+$493gains $623 · losses $188
PnL 7d+$141win rate 7d 50.0%
Win rate81.8%adj 61.3% · 30d 50.0%
Open value$25.5kcash n/a
Positions8 / 19open / all-time
Max drawdown−59.0%of equity peak
Account age3molast trade 1d ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL+$2,105below peak $0Oct 13
SharpScore inputs
31/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale44
Adjusted win rateraw 81.8% · shrunk toward 50%53
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable43
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d96
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity41
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
Iran leadership change by September 30? · Noclosed+$383Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · Yesopen+$353Iran leadership change by July 31? · Noclosed+$263Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? · Noclosed+$239IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31? · Noopen+$205
Worst markets
Open positions · 8
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31? | No | 7,888 | 91.7¢ | 93.5¢ | $7,375 | +$145 | $0 | |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Yes | 7,232 | 83¢ | 87.9¢ | $6,353 | +$353 | $0 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | No | 3,232 | 92.8¢ | 95.8¢ | $3,096 | +$96 | $0 | |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 2,790 | 93¢ | 90.5¢ | $2,525 | −$70 | $0 | |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 3,283 | 63¢ | 63.5¢ | $2,085 | +$16 | $0 | |
| Iran leadership change by October 31? | No | 2,105 | 95¢ | 98.3¢ | $2,069 | +$69 | $0 | |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31? | No | 2,024 | 88.9¢ | 99.1¢ | $2,005 | +$205 | $0 | |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | Yes | 86 | 7¢ | 6¢ | $5.14 | −$0.86 | $0 |
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