PnL all-time+$942vol $29.6k
PnL 30d+$34gains $0 · losses $0
PnL 7d+$9.21win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate48.3%adj 48.6% · 30d 0.0%
Open value$4,401cash n/a
Positions5 / 130open / all-time
Max drawdown−66.0%of equity peak
Account age1.6ylast trade 5mo ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL+$1,716below peak −$33Oct 11
SharpScore inputs
37/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale42
Adjusted win rateraw 48.3% · shrunk toward 50%22
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable70
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d0
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity34
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
Will the February 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%? · Yesclosed+$776Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year? · Noopen+$415Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · Noopen+$297Will the February 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%? · Noclosed+$290Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in February? · Noclosed+$224
Worst markets
US military action against Iran by Saturday? · Noclosed−$1,139Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 24? · Yesclosed−$208Trump ends all military aid to Ukraine before April? · Noclosed−$103Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? · Noclosed−$26Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31? · Yesopen−$25
Open positions · 5
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 2,261 | 84.6¢ | 97.8¢ | $2,210 | +$296 | +$0.79 | |
| Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year? | No | 1,981 | 70.5¢ | 91.5¢ | $1,813 | +$415 | $0 | |
| Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026? | No | 350 | 78.7¢ | 96.7¢ | $339 | +$63 | $0 | |
| Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | Yes | 44 | 15¢ | 69.5¢ | $30 | +$24 | $0 | |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31? | Yes | 44 | 78¢ | 21.5¢ | $9.40 | −$25 | $0 |
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