sharpside
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42021

0x0d4…f124
PnL 10k+1y+WeatherSportPoliticsOther
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$22.9kvol $9.65M
PnL 30d−$2,444gains $9,191 · losses $6,330
PnL 7d−$2,243win rate 7d 61.8%
Win rate50.1%adj 50.1% · 30d 50.4%
Open value$7,698cash n/a
Positions273 / 6,451open / all-time
Max drawdown−31.1%of equity peak
Account age1.3ylast trade 1d ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$20.6kbelow peak −$5,636Oct 11

SharpScore inputs

61/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale62
Adjusted win rateraw 50.1% · shrunk toward 50%25
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d96
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity69

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 100

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No66445.6¢62.5¢$415+$112+$115
Will Kyriakos Mitsotakis be the next Prime Minister of Greece?No1,10224.5¢25.5¢$281+$11$0
Will Francis James Allison Oyague win the next Lima mayoral elections?No26987.8¢96.1¢$259+$22+$6.74
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No28488¢90.5¢$257+$7.10+$19
Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026?No28884¢87.5¢$252+$10$0
Will the Democratic Party win the MN-02 House seat?Yes21991¢91.6¢$200+$1.20$0
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No1,19021¢16.5¢$196−$54+$64
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs PURE (BO3) - Roman Imperium Cup PlayoffsPURE17941¢100¢$179+$106+$2.73
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on September 30?No17848.8¢100¢$178+$91+$21
Will Tahiti win on 2026-09-30?No16413.3¢100¢$164+$142$0
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on October 11?No16268¢100¢$162+$52$0
Counter-Strike: ex-Keyd Stars vs Procyon Gaming (BO3) - CCT South America Series 6 PlayoffsProcyon Gaming15949.5¢100¢$159+$80$0
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?Yes20279.5¢70.9¢$143−$17+$49
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on October 2?No13591.2¢100¢$135+$12−$5.32
FC Kairat Almaty vs. Zhetysu Taldykorgan: O/U 3.5Under13161¢100¢$131+$51$0
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No32739¢37.5¢$123−$4.90−$30
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $360 Week of October 5 2026?No11851¢100¢$118+$58$0
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31?No12190.4¢94.1¢$114+$4.48+$0.36
Will "Heart of the Beast" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 13m?No11434.8¢100¢$114+$74+$32
Will Isack Hadjar finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix?No10774.3¢100¢$107+$27+$3.41
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on October 7?Yes10513.8¢100¢$105+$90+$139
Trump bans more news outlets from White House by September 30?No10497.1¢100¢$104+$3.02+$1.96
Will Jay Clayton be Trump's AI czar?Yes10093.9¢100¢$100+$6.12+$32
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 90-91°F on October 6?No9170¢100¢$91+$27+$6.25
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on October 2?No9161.3¢100¢$91+$35−$0.71
Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1400 by June 30, 2027?Yes8488.5¢98.8¢$83+$8.67$0
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on September 30?No8085.8¢100¢$80+$11+$9.82
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on October 9?No8076¢100¢$80+$19+$21
Argentina vs. Burkina Faso: O/U 5.5Over8011¢100¢$80+$71$0
LoL: G2 NORD vs BOMBA Team - Game 1 WinnerG2 NORD8061¢100¢$80+$31$0
Spread: Missouri (-3.5)Missouri7854¢100¢$78+$36$0
Will Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca win the next Lima mayoral elections?No7797.3¢99.8¢$77+$1.94+$0.20
Games Total: O/U 2.5Under7459¢100¢$74+$30$0
Will Arman Tsarukyan be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?No7991.1¢92.2¢$73+$0.87+$0.19
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No8586.9¢85.4¢$73−$1.29−$17
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of October 17?No6951.6¢98.5¢$68+$32−$0.54
Another Iranian Ambassador expelled by October 31, 2026?Yes30016¢22.5¢$68+$20$0
Alexandra Leclerc pregnant in 2026?No1891.9¢35.7¢$67+$64$0
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on October 4?No6414.7¢100¢$64+$55$0
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on October 7?No6260¢100¢$62+$25+$27
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on October 7?No6184.6¢100¢$61+$9.35+$0.06
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?Yes52811¢11.5¢$61+$2.62−$65
Will 0 Independents be elected to Congress in 2026?No13937.1¢43.5¢$60+$8.84$0
Game Handicap: TLNP (-1.5) vs Valerion (+1.5)TLN Pirates5945¢100¢$59+$33+$6.16
Will "Heart of the Beast" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 11m?Yes5932¢100¢$59+$40$0
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on September 30?Yes5945¢100¢$59+$32−$16
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on October 11?No5554¢100¢$55+$25$0
Will Core PCE YoY be 3.0% in September?Yes16527¢32¢$53+$8.25+$0.60
Modi out by June 30, 2027?Yes30021.6¢16.5¢$50−$15$0
Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs MEIA NOITE (BO3) - CCT South America Series 6 PlayoffsMEIA NOITE9828.7¢50¢$49+$21+$31
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?No6328¢7.5¢$47−$3.16$0
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on October 9?No4764.2¢100¢$47+$17+$14
Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?Yes30042.5¢15.5¢$46−$81$0
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on October 6?No4568.6¢100¢$45+$14+$3.51
Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027?Yes1,15815.9¢3.9¢$45−$139+$26
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 150m and 160m by October 31?No1,13526.3¢4¢$45−$253−$23
Will Nicoletti win the most votes in the 2026 Roraima Senate election?Yes4423.1¢100¢$44+$34+$19
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on October 1?No4383¢100¢$43+$7.33$0
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on October 6?No4283.9¢100¢$42+$6.77+$5.77
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on October 9?Yes4132.7¢100¢$41+$28+$10
Game Handicap: SU (-1.5) vs The Secret Club Esport (+1.5)SU Esports8068¢50¢$40−$14$0
Games Total: O/U 2.5Over8029¢50¢$40+$17$0
LoL: The Secret Club Esport vs SU Esports - Game 2 WinnerThe Secret Club Esport8044¢50¢$40+$4.80$0
LoL: The Secret Club Esport vs SU Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Swiss StageThe Secret Club Esport8047¢50¢$40+$2.40$0
LoL: The Secret Club Esport vs SU Esports - Game 1 WinnerThe Secret Club Esport8044¢50¢$40+$4.80$0
Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?Yes30029¢12.5¢$38−$50$0
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on September 30?Up3681¢100¢$36+$6.92+$24
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on October 6?Yes3698.8¢100¢$36+$0.43+$0.59
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 18°C on October 9?No3381¢100¢$33+$6.32−$2.46
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on October 2?No3384¢100¢$33+$5.27+$3.60
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?Yes29924¢11¢$33−$39+$60
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on October 2?No3166.7¢100¢$31+$10+$0.15
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on October 2?No3167.9¢100¢$31+$9.88+$0.41
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on October 2?No3138.9¢100¢$31+$19−$2.36
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on October 9?No3070.4¢100¢$30+$9.03+$3.33
Texas A&M vs. MissouriMissouri3063¢100¢$30+$11$0
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on October 2?No2981.6¢100¢$29+$5.30+$8.48
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on October 2?No2939¢100¢$29+$17+$6.51
Spread: Argentina (-3.5)Argentina2846¢100¢$28+$15$0
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?Yes42318¢6.5¢$27−$49−$26
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 96-97°F on October 6?No2779.8¢100¢$27+$5.52$0
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No28512.7¢9.5¢$27−$9.14−$129
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on October 7?No2576¢100¢$25+$5.91+$9.16
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on October 11?No6070¢41¢$25−$17$0
Will Manchester City be relegated from the Premier League in 2026-27?Yes8032¢30.5¢$24−$1.20$0
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections?No2222.7¢10.9¢$24+$18−$75
Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?Yes29922.5¢8¢$24−$43$0
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on October 1?No2166.8¢100¢$21+$7.05+$0.58
Will Helio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the 2026 Roraima Senate election?No2188¢100¢$21+$2.52+$2.36
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on October 2?No1960.7¢100¢$19+$7.66+$3.07
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Yes29926.3¢6.5¢$19−$59+$99
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the December meeting?Yes7935¢24.5¢$19−$8.29$0
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?No4052¢44.5¢$18−$3.00$0
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on October 7?No1880.3¢100¢$18+$3.48−$0.58
Will Trump pardon Keonne Rodriguez before 2027?Yes15917¢11¢$17−$9.54$0
Map Handicap: BHE (-1.5) vs MEIA NOITE (+1.5)MEIA NOITE3442.8¢50¢$17+$2.47+$2.66
Will there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?No1739¢100¢$17+$10$0
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections?Yes1993.9¢89.1¢$17−$0.90+$33
Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" before 2027?Yes30013.8¢5.5¢$17−$25$0
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?Yes30017.8¢5.5¢$16−$37+$7.72

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
SELL NoWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?85¢21$1850%61
SELL NoWill the highest temperature in London be 16°C on October 10?41¢15$6.1550%61
SELL YesUS-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31?8.6¢29$2.4950%61
SELL NoWill Japan's core CPI increase by less than or equal to 1.9% in 2026?40¢54$2250%61
SELL NoWill the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 150m and 160m by October 31?36¢113$4150%61
SELL NoWill the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 150m and 160m by October 31?36¢156$5650%61
SELL NoWill the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 150m and 160m by October 31?36¢156$5650%61
SELL NoWill "Patient Zero - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of October 17?16¢69$1150%61
SELL LOUDValorant: Paper Rex vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs47¢169$7950%61
SELL YesOpensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?11.8¢98$1250%61
SELL NoWill United States win on 2026-10-06?44¢14$6.1650%61
SELL NoWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on October 7?54¢5$2.7050%61
SELL NoWill Core CPI YoY be 2.5% in September?59¢22$1350%61
SELL BetBoom TeamCounter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage35¢148$5250%61
SELL NoWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?89.5¢62$5550%61
SELL YesJack Barton announced as next James Bond?8.5¢100$8.5050%61
SELL NoWill Malta win on 2026-10-04?19¢12$2.2850%61
SELL NoWill Malta win on 2026-10-04?17¢97$1650%61
SELL PARIVISIONGame Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs Aurora (+1.5)75¢51$3850%61
SELL NoWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on October 2?49¢56$2750%61