PnL all-time+$2,508vol $105k
PnL 30d−$13gains $67 · losses $0
PnL 7d−$48win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate65.2%adj 64.2% · 30d 100.0%
Open value$1,293cash n/a
Positions9 / 333open / all-time
Max drawdown−33.9%of equity peak
Account age2.2ylast trade 1mo ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL+$2,839below peak −$1,386Oct 12
SharpScore inputs
56/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale49
Adjusted win rateraw 65.2% · shrunk toward 50%61
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable84
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d0
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity66
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
Worst markets
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026? · Noclosed−$244Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? · Noclosed−$198Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026? · Yesclosed−$182Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? · Noclosed−$182Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score below 1480? · Noclosed−$174
Open positions · 9
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | Yes | 479 | 72.7¢ | 67¢ | $321 | −$27 | $0 | |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31? | No | 290 | 75¢ | 96.6¢ | $280 | +$62 | $0 | |
| SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027? | No | 363 | 49¢ | 67¢ | $243 | +$65 | $0 | |
| Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | No | 216 | 55.4¢ | 83.5¢ | $180 | +$60 | +$41 | |
| EU debt downgrade before 2027? | No | 166 | 68.6¢ | 87.5¢ | $145 | +$31 | $0 | |
| Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026? | Yes | 328 | 39.3¢ | 29¢ | $95 | −$34 | $0 | |
| Metamask FDV above $300M one day after launch? | No | 30 | 76¢ | 93¢ | $28 | +$5.08 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510? | No | 2 | 84¢ | 72.6¢ | $1.11 | −$0.18 | $0 | |
| Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? | No | 5 | 68¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3.40 | $0 |
Recent trades
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