PnL all-time−$110vol $32.7k
PnL 30d+$214gains $4.64 · losses $0
PnL 7d−$77win rate 7d 100.0%
Win rate54.0%adj 52.9% · 30d 100.0%
Open value$2,617cash n/a
Positions5 / 55open / all-time
Max drawdown−50.1%of equity peak
Account age12molast trade 2d ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL+$233below peak −$247Oct 12
SharpScore inputs
33/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 54.0% · shrunk toward 50%32
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable58
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d93
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity50
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yesopen+$306Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? · Noclosed+$152Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 27, 2026? · Yesclosed+$105Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026? · Yesclosed+$80Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10? · Yesclosed+$70
Worst markets
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? · Noclosed−$200Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? · Noclosed−$152Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? · Noclosed−$121Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026? · Yesclosed−$119Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? · Yesclosed−$50
Open positions · 5
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 2,295 | 50.1¢ | 63.5¢ | $1,457 | +$306 | $0 | |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | No | 800 | 87.7¢ | 91.5¢ | $732 | +$30 | +$14 | |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 386 | 71.5¢ | 80.2¢ | $309 | +$33 | $0 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2027? | No | 300 | 38¢ | 36¢ | $108 | −$6.00 | $0 | |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | Yes | 294 | 17¢ | 3.7¢ | $11 | −$39 | $0 |
Recent trades
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