sharpside
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johnnyA

0x11f…d859@johnnyAonX
SharpPnL 10k+WR 70+WR 60+1y+PoliticsOther
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$22.5kvol $2.05M
PnL 30d+$2,428gains $4,843 · losses $1,547
PnL 7d−$184win rate 7d 100.0%
Win rate72.7%adj 71.8% · 30d 76.3%
Open value$24.6kcash n/a
Positions45 / 804open / all-time
Max drawdown−12.0%of equity peak
Account age2.3ylast trade 2d ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$23.7kbelow peak −$406Oct 12

SharpScore inputs

77/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale62
Adjusted win rateraw 72.7% · shrunk toward 50%80
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable97
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d92
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity88

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? · Yesclosed+$1,634US bank failure by January 31? · Yesclosed+$1,275US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? · Yesclosed+$1,256Weed rescheduled in 2025? · Yesclosed+$1,090US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? · Yesclosed+$983

Worst markets

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? · Yesclosed−$2,392X relaunches Vine in 2025? · Noclosed−$1,852Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? · Noclosed−$1,817US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? · Noopen−$1,562Will Kathy Hochul endorse Mamdani? · Noclosed−$1,145

Open positions · 45

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?No3,79494.1¢99.2¢$3,762+$193$0
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?No3,97675.2¢85.5¢$3,399+$411−$344
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?No2,50278.8¢94¢$2,352+$380+$101
Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31?No2,25091.2¢97.7¢$2,198+$147$0
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?No2,25087¢95.9¢$2,157+$199$0
Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?No2,00071¢71.5¢$1,430+$10$0
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?No1,40490.7¢96.8¢$1,359+$85−$104
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?No1,50089.7¢85.5¢$1,283−$62−$35
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31?No1,25093.9¢95.5¢$1,194+$20$0
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?No1,06686.9¢96.3¢$1,026+$99+$69
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?Yes3,67237.1¢27.5¢$1,010−$353$0
Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?Yes80092¢91.5¢$732−$4.00$0
America.gov removed by October 31?No55696¢97.2¢$541+$6.40$0
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?No41594¢94.5¢$392+$1.88+$75
Will a hurricane make landfall in Delaware by November 30, 2026?No34294.5¢97.8¢$334+$11$0
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Yes1,25030.8¢26.5¢$331−$54$0
Will a hurricane make landfall in New Hampshire by November 30, 2026?No16394.3¢98.4¢$160+$6.60$0
Will Pete Crow-Armstrong win the 2026 National League MVP Award?Yes14653.9¢98.6¢$144+$65$0
Leopold Aschenbrenner charged in 2026?No9392¢94.8¢$88+$2.56$0
Will Ahmad Vahidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?No9175.3¢96.6¢$87+$19−$1.10
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?Yes2,5006.4¢3.4¢$85−$76+$177
Will the Republicans win the South Dakota Senate race in 2026?Yes8693.7¢93.2¢$80−$0.44$0
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?Yes55517.3¢14¢$78−$18$0
Will a hurricane make landfall in New Jersey by November 30, 2026?No7596.2¢94.6¢$71−$1.20$0
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes14150.2¢45.6¢$64−$6.52$0
Iran Nuke before 2027?Yes1,5006.5¢3.4¢$50−$48−$34
Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by December 31, 2026?Yes23524.4¢20.5¢$48−$9.21−$4.21
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 20?Yes6551.5¢55.5¢$36+$2.61+$19
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes1,2502.9¢2.5¢$31−$5.13$0
Will Isaias peak at Category 3?Yes2096.4¢99.3¢$20+$0.57+$5.66
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31?No2093¢98.5¢$20+$1.09$0
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes2046¢23.5¢$4.70−$4.50+$41
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes1,5000.3¢0.3¢$3.75−$0.75$0
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes5001.6¢0.4¢$1.75−$6.25$0
Will Mamdani pass the 2% Millionaire Tax before 2027?No133¢97.4¢$1.45+$0.96$0
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?No2,50062.1¢0¢$0−$1,553−$9.13
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Yes1,6754.1¢0¢$0−$69+$228
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?No1,25076.6¢0¢$0−$957−$134
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?No83037.2¢0¢$0−$308$0
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Yes45045.7¢0¢$0−$205−$5.52
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?No40060.9¢0¢$0−$243$0
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?Yes4002.9¢0¢$0−$12+$3.51
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by September 30, 2026?Yes3003¢0¢$0−$8.98−$0.35
UC Davis vs. SMUUC Davis1005¢0¢$0−$5.00−$0.24
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22?Yes1826¢0¢$0−$4.77$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoWill a hurricane make landfall in New Jersey by November 30, 2026?96.2¢75$7273%77Sharp
BUY NoWill Isaias peak at Category 4?96.8¢39$3873%77Sharp
BUY YesWill Isaias peak at Category 3?96.8¢240$23273%77Sharp
BUY YesWill Isaias peak at Category 3?94¢26$2573%77Sharp
BUY NoWill Isaias peak at Category 4?94.6¢117$11073%77Sharp
BUY YesWill the Republicans win the South Dakota Senate race in 2026?93.8¢66$6273%77Sharp
BUY YesWill the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?92¢800$73673%77Sharp
BUY NoAny of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?71¢2,000$1,42073%77Sharp
BUY NoWill a hurricane make landfall in New Hampshire by November 30, 2026?94.3¢163$15373%77Sharp
BUY NoWill a hurricane make landfall in Delaware by November 30, 2026?94.5¢342$32373%77Sharp
BUY YesUS announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?34¢5$1.7073%77Sharp
BUY NoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?87¢34$2973%77Sharp
BUY NoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?88¢750$66073%77Sharp
BUY NoUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?78¢2,000$1,56073%77Sharp
BUY YesUS announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?35¢1,500$52573%77Sharp
SELL NoTrump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?96.9¢452$43873%77Sharp
BUY NoStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?97¢1,000$97073%77Sharp
SELL YesWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?82¢100$8273%77Sharp
BUY NoSaudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?37.2¢500$18673%77Sharp
BUY NoWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?90.2¢105$9573%77Sharp