| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026? | No | 9,616 | 65.5¢ | 86.5¢ | $8,318 | +$2,023 | +$29 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 19 and October 25, 2026? | No | 5,376 | 89.2¢ | 97.8¢ | $5,255 | +$460 | −$101 | |
| Will Waymo operate in 12-15 cities on December 31 2026? | Yes | 2,849 | 49.2¢ | 69.7¢ | $1,986 | +$583 | $0 | |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 23, 2026? | No | 2,179 | 85.1¢ | 87.5¢ | $1,906 | +$53 | −$101 | |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026? | No | 1,913 | 63.9¢ | 94¢ | $1,798 | +$575 | $0 | |
| Will ByteDance have the third highest private market valuation at the end of October? | Yes | 1,680 | 91¢ | 91¢ | $1,529 | −$0.56 | $0 | |
| Will the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on October 28, 2026? | No | 1,592 | 78.6¢ | 95.9¢ | $1,526 | +$274 | $0 | |
| Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 1,558 | 10.7¢ | 89.5¢ | $1,394 | +$1,227 | +$486 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on October 11, 2026? | No | 1,347 | 92.3¢ | 99.6¢ | $1,342 | +$98 | $0 | |
| Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026? | No | 1,668 | 85.7¢ | 77.5¢ | $1,293 | −$137 | $0 | |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026? | No | 21.3k | 9.7¢ | 6¢ | $1,277 | −$785 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by November 30, 2026? | No | 1,769 | 65.1¢ | 71.5¢ | $1,265 | +$114 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by December 31, 2026? | No | 2,010 | 60.7¢ | 62¢ | $1,246 | +$26 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | No | 1,628 | 64.3¢ | 74.5¢ | $1,213 | +$166 | $0 | |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 1,399 | 91¢ | 84.8¢ | $1,186 | −$87 | −$22 | |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | No | 2,766 | 33¢ | 41.5¢ | $1,148 | +$235 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | No | 1,291 | 83.1¢ | 87¢ | $1,123 | +$50 | $0 | |
| Will the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on October 19, 2026? | No | 1,123 | 88.1¢ | 95.9¢ | $1,077 | +$86 | $0 | |
| Will Waymo operate in fewer than 12 cities on December 31 2026? | No | 1,369 | 48.5¢ | 76.9¢ | $1,052 | +$388 | $0 | |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? | No | 1,082 | 90¢ | 96.5¢ | $1,044 | +$70 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI announce that it has resumed training on October 17, 2026? | No | 995 | 94¢ | 99¢ | $985 | +$50 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher? | No | 1,640 | 57.1¢ | 56.5¢ | $926 | −$9.65 | −$1.86 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026? | No | 1,027 | 50¢ | 89.5¢ | $919 | +$406 | $0 | |
| Will DeepSeek have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5? | Yes | 1,013 | 80.5¢ | 90.6¢ | $918 | +$103 | −$1.18 | |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? | No | 1,003 | 83.5¢ | 88.5¢ | $888 | +$50 | $0 | |
| Will OpenRouter process at least 725T tokens from Sep 28 to Oct 25? | No | 977 | 79.6¢ | 89.5¢ | $874 | +$97 | $0 | |
| Will the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on October 16, 2026? | No | 839 | 89¢ | 96.9¢ | $813 | +$66 | $0 | |
| Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher? | No | 1,288 | 57.8¢ | 62.5¢ | $805 | +$60 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI announce that it has resumed training on October 15, 2026? | No | 667 | 85.4¢ | 96.6¢ | $644 | +$74 | $0 | |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 9, 2026? | No | 581 | 91.6¢ | 99.5¢ | $578 | +$46 | −$38 | |
| Will OpenRouter process between 675T and 725T tokens from Sep 28 to Oct 25? | No | 822 | 74.3¢ | 69¢ | $567 | −$44 | $0 | |
| Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026? | Yes | 569 | 13.3¢ | 93.5¢ | $532 | +$456 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490? | No | 805 | 54.5¢ | 63.2¢ | $509 | +$70 | −$292 | |
| Will the Ornn H100 Index hit $3.50 (HIGH) by December 31, 2026? | No | 1,045 | 33.3¢ | 46¢ | $481 | +$133 | $0 | |
| Will Gemini Argon be released on October 30, 2026? | No | 500 | 86.4¢ | 95¢ | $475 | +$43 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 580 | 56.4¢ | 81.5¢ | $473 | +$146 | −$5.89 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 12 and October 18, 2026? | No | 490 | 81¢ | 95.8¢ | $469 | +$73 | +$107 | |
| Will OpenAI be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of November 2026? | No | 513 | 80.1¢ | 86.1¢ | $442 | +$31 | $0 | |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher? | No | 633 | 63¢ | 66¢ | $418 | +$19 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI’s valuation be less than $600B at the end of November 2026? | No | 485 | 90¢ | 84¢ | $408 | −$29 | $0 | |
| Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | No | 662 | 72.8¢ | 61.5¢ | $407 | −$75 | −$2.90 | |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? | No | 418 | 89.3¢ | 94.7¢ | $396 | +$23 | $0 | |
| Next Alibaba Qwen Plus (3.8+) released by October 15, 2026? | No | 365 | 62.2¢ | 98.6¢ | $360 | +$133 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510? | No | 481 | 64.3¢ | 71.8¢ | $345 | +$36 | $0 | |
| Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 780 | 40.2¢ | 41.8¢ | $326 | +$12 | $0 | |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher? | No | 1,107 | 24¢ | 29.1¢ | $322 | +$56 | $0 | |
| Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 650 | 36.4¢ | 48.5¢ | $315 | +$78 | +$5.29 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 5 and October 11, 2026? | No | 313 | 95.7¢ | 99.5¢ | $311 | +$12 | $0 | |
| Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $4.50 (LOW) by December 31, 2026? | No | 401 | 69¢ | 73.5¢ | $295 | +$18 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? | No | 934 | 31¢ | 31.5¢ | $294 | +$4.67 | $0 | |
| Will OpenRouter process between 175T and 185T tokens the week of October 5? | No | 318 | 76.9¢ | 92¢ | $293 | +$48 | −$110 | |
| Will there be exactly 1 ChatGPT outage in October 2026? | No | 294 | 86¢ | 98.6¢ | $290 | +$37 | $0 | |
| Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? | No | 330 | 86¢ | 86.5¢ | $286 | +$1.65 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher? | No | 348 | 69¢ | 81.5¢ | $284 | +$43 | $0 | |
| Will OpenRouter process less than 155T tokens the week of October 5? | Yes | 1,494 | 23.2¢ | 18.5¢ | $276 | −$71 | +$125 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 23, 2026? | No | 309 | 45.4¢ | 88.5¢ | $273 | +$133 | $0 | |
| Will Gemini Argon be released on October 31, 2026? | No | 375 | 90.8¢ | 67¢ | $251 | −$89 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 9, 2026? | No | 255 | 54.4¢ | 96.8¢ | $246 | +$108 | $0 | |
| Will Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of November 2026? | No | 286 | 71.1¢ | 86¢ | $246 | +$43 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500? | No | 338 | 63.4¢ | 70.5¢ | $238 | +$24 | +$33 | |
| Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? | No | 295 | 77¢ | 79.5¢ | $235 | +$7.38 | $0 | |
| Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by October 31, 2026? | No | 400 | 13.3¢ | 48.5¢ | $194 | +$141 | $0 | |
| Will there be exactly 3 ChatGPT outages in October 2026? | No | 262 | 64.4¢ | 72¢ | $189 | +$20 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5? | No | 447 | 59.7¢ | 42¢ | $188 | −$79 | $0 | |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31? | Yes | 440 | 35.3¢ | 39.1¢ | $172 | +$16 | $0 | |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 16, 2026? | No | 190 | 88.7¢ | 89.5¢ | $170 | +$1.47 | $0 | |
| Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026? | No | 8,324 | 2.6¢ | 2¢ | $162 | −$52 | $0 | |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? | No | 180 | 90¢ | 90¢ | $162 | $0 | $0 | |
| Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-01 House seat? | Yes | 184 | 67.1¢ | 79.5¢ | $146 | +$23 | $0 | |
| Will OpenRouter process between 165T and 175T tokens the week of October 5? | No | 222 | 62.8¢ | 64.5¢ | $143 | +$3.71 | $0 | |
| Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 163 | 82.2¢ | 85.5¢ | $139 | +$5.46 | $0 | |
| Will Google have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5? | No | 140 | 85¢ | 99¢ | $139 | +$20 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of November 2026? | No | 178 | 67¢ | 74.5¢ | $133 | +$13 | $0 | |
| Will the Ornn H200 Index hit $4.00 (LOW) by December 31, 2026? | No | 314 | 26.8¢ | 41.9¢ | $131 | +$47 | $0 | |
| Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? | Yes | 182 | 41.9¢ | 68.5¢ | $125 | +$48 | $0 | |
| Will Waymo operate in 16-19 cities on December 31 2026? | Yes | 2,153 | 4.7¢ | 5.6¢ | $121 | +$19 | $0 | |
| Will Gemini Argon be released on or prior to October 8, 2026? | No | 121 | 83¢ | 95.5¢ | $116 | +$15 | $0 | |
| Will any other model be the best AI model on October 12, 2026? | Yes | 117 | 90.2¢ | 98.3¢ | $115 | +$9.51 | $0 | |
| Will the Democratic Party win the WA-03 House seat? | Yes | 125 | 70.7¢ | 88¢ | $110 | +$22 | $0 | |
| Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 287 | 43.8¢ | 36.5¢ | $105 | −$21 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 172 | 58.1¢ | 59.5¢ | $102 | +$2.46 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 15, 2026? | No | 108 | 92¢ | 91.5¢ | $99 | −$0.54 | −$328 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 232 | 34.5¢ | 42.5¢ | $99 | +$19 | $0 | |
| Will the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on October 31, 2026? | No | 100 | 90¢ | 96.9¢ | $97 | +$6.85 | $0 | |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 139 | 64.1¢ | 69.7¢ | $97 | +$7.70 | −$29 | |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 23, 2026? | No | 447 | 11.1¢ | 20.5¢ | $92 | +$42 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher? | No | 165 | 42.5¢ | 54¢ | $89 | +$19 | $0 | |
| Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 45% or higher? | Yes | 100 | 72.1¢ | 87.9¢ | $88 | +$16 | $0 | |
| Will the Ornn H200 Index be less than $4.50 on November 30, 2026? | No | 103 | 71¢ | 84.8¢ | $87 | +$14 | $0 | |
| Will the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on October 21, 2026? | No | 100 | 89¢ | 86.5¢ | $87 | −$2.50 | $0 | |
| Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $0.75 and $1.00 on November 30, 2026? | Yes | 146 | 36¢ | 58.5¢ | $85 | +$33 | $0 | |
| Will Aileen Cannon be the next Supreme Court nominee? | No | 101 | 78.6¢ | 83.4¢ | $84 | +$4.81 | −$8.68 | |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026? | No | 187 | 39.6¢ | 45¢ | $84 | +$10 | $0 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 116 | 62.9¢ | 71.5¢ | $83 | +$9.96 | $0 | |
| Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $0.50 and $0.75 on October 31, 2026? | No | 86 | 86.9¢ | 93.3¢ | $80 | +$5.50 | $0 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 573 | 7¢ | 13.5¢ | $77 | +$37 | $0 | |
| Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released by October 16, 2026? | No | 100 | 19.2¢ | 76.5¢ | $76 | +$57 | $0 | |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | Yes | 867 | 14.8¢ | 8.5¢ | $74 | −$55 | $0 | |
| Will the Democratic Party win the PA-10 House seat? | Yes | 91 | 75.3¢ | 80.5¢ | $73 | +$4.70 | $0 | |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 16, 2026? | No | 172 | 26.9¢ | 42.5¢ | $73 | +$27 | $0 | |