sharpside
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Traders/Rank #2,534

laureman

0x135…092e
SharpPnL 10k+WR 70+WR 60+PoliticsCryptoOther
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$11.2kvol $2.14M
PnL 30d+$10.7kgains $12.9k · losses $2,976
PnL 7d+$0.30win rate 7d 63.6%
Win rate77.4%adj 73.0% · 30d 77.4%
Open value$73.0kcash n/a
Positions26 / 133open / all-time
Max drawdown−17.3%of equity peak
Account age30dlast trade 44m ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$10.6kbelow peak −$2,217Oct 8

SharpScore inputs

71/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale58
Adjusted win rateraw 77.4% · shrunk toward 50%83
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable71
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity83

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September? · Noclosed+$2,124Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? · Yesclosed+$1,695Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · Yesclosed+$1,335US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? · Yesclosed+$1,103Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? · Yesopen+$985

Worst markets

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? · Yesclosed−$678Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? · Yesclosed−$653Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy) · Yesopen−$618Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from October 2 to October 9, 2026? · Yesclosed−$441US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? · Yesclosed−$370

Open positions · 26

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No15.0k84.1¢84.5¢$12.7k+$59−$44
Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Yes12.3k77.7¢77.5¢$9,514−$27+$79
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?Yes9,02192.9¢94¢$8,480+$96+$99
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes10.0k82.6¢82.5¢$8,275−$5.66+$990
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes6,05679.5¢78.5¢$4,754−$59+$131
Iran leadership change by December 31?No5,00088¢88.5¢$4,425+$25+$0.05
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in October?No5,99668.5¢67¢$4,017−$91+$171
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?Yes3,87096.2¢95.6¢$3,700−$22$0
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Yes4,74772.4¢72.5¢$3,442+$3.78$0
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Yes5,99849¢48.1¢$2,882−$56+$104
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?No3,38490.5¢84¢$2,841−$223+$1.92
Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by October 10, 2026?No2,18995.6¢99.1¢$2,168+$75+$1.91
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?Yes2,26793.7¢92.5¢$2,097−$27+$138
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?No2,00077¢77.5¢$1,550+$10.00+$29
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in October?No1,30536¢36.5¢$476+$6.01+$38
Will another city host the final of the 2030 FIFA World Cup?Yes90049¢46.5¢$419−$22$0
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from October 9 to October 16, 2026?Yes36988.7¢89.8¢$331+$4.10$0
Will Mojtaba Khamenei attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?No31396.8¢97.9¢$307+$3.17+$5.69
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)Yes1,46360.7¢18.5¢$271−$618$0
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from October 6 to October 13, 2026?Yes46394¢33.7¢$156−$279−$9.16
Carles Puigdemont back in Spain by October 31, 2026?No13384¢82.1¢$110−$2.52−$1.57
Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?No3285¢92¢$29+$2.24$0
Will OpenAI have the best Image Edit AI at the end of October 2026?Yes2893¢88¢$25−$1.40$0
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Yes3243.5¢41.5¢$13−$0.63−$366
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by October 31, 2026?No42577¢0.5¢$2.12−$325+$5.52
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes374¢41.5¢$1.28−$1.00−$35

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?77¢10$7.7077%71Sharp
SELL NoWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in October?36¢924$33277%71Sharp
SELL NoWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in October?37¢61$2377%71Sharp
BUY YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?94¢876$82377%71Sharp
SELL YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?77¢5$3.8577%71Sharp
SELL YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?93¢869$80877%71Sharp
BUY NoWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in October?64¢5$3.4677%71Sharp
BUY NoWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in October?34¢86$2977%71Sharp
BUY NoWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in October?33.5¢74$2577%71Sharp
BUY YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?96.2¢69$6677%71Sharp
BUY YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?96.7¢900$87077%71Sharp
BUY YesIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?83¢26$2277%71Sharp
BUY YesIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?73¢10$7.3077%71Sharp
BUY YesIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?73¢130$9577%71Sharp
BUY YesIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?82¢560$45977%71Sharp
BUY YesIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?73¢10$7.3077%71Sharp
BUY YesIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?73¢30$2277%71Sharp
BUY YesIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?70.1¢140$9877%71Sharp
BUY YesIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?67.5¢427$28877%71Sharp
BUY NoWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in October?63¢387$24477%71Sharp