sharpside
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arbdiscovery

0x145…449c
WR 60+PoliticsCulture
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$426vol $35.6k
PnL 30d+$104gains $200 · losses $0
PnL 7d−$246win rate 7d 100.0%
Win rate69.4%adj 62.5% · 30d 100.0%
Open value$11.1kcash n/a
Positions106 / 143open / all-time
Max drawdown−31.8%of equity peak
Account age5molast trade 1mo ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$1,968below peak −$303Oct 12

SharpScore inputs

37/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale38
Adjusted win rateraw 69.4% · shrunk toward 50%56
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable72
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d0
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity68

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 100

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Bruno Mars be the top artist for 2026?No1,49992.5¢98.5¢$1,476+$89$0
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes2,38416.8¢40¢$952+$551$0
Will the Republican Party win the OH-10 House seat?Yes1,07473.8¢83.5¢$897+$104$0
Will the Republican Party win the MD-01 House seat?Yes84282.6¢92.5¢$779+$83$0
Will the Democratic Party win the GA-06 House seat?Yes75393¢95.6¢$719+$19$0
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026?No68453.9¢83.5¢$571+$203$0
Discord IPO before 2027?No60040¢93.1¢$558+$318$0
Will the Republican Party win the IN-05 House seat?Yes62376.3¢80.5¢$502+$26$0
Will the federal gas tax be suspended by November 2, 2026?No40977.4¢99.4¢$407+$90$0
Will the Democratic Party win the PA-10 House seat?Yes42469.4¢80.5¢$341+$47$0
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-24 House seat?Yes31490.9¢95.3¢$299+$14$0
Will the Democratic Party win the NH-02 House seat?Yes31386.2¢95¢$297+$27$0
Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?No43872.3¢65.5¢$287−$30$0
Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2026?No26889.5¢93.5¢$251+$11−$0.05
Will the Republican Party win the FL-07 House seat?Yes36662.9¢65¢$238+$7.64$0
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?No28235.8¢82.6¢$233+$132$0
Will the Republican Party win the TX-35 House seat?Yes58353¢35.5¢$207−$102$0
Will the Democratic Party win the KY-06 House seat?Yes56232.6¢33.5¢$188+$5.18$0
Will Trump pardon Martin Shkreli before 2027?No11987.9¢97.2¢$115+$11$0
Bank of England rate hike in 2026?Yes11450¢98.9¢$113+$56$0
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes15454.8¢72.5¢$112+$27$0
Will the Republican Party win the OH-09 House seat?Yes39831¢27.5¢$109−$14$0
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams before 2027?No11188.4¢97¢$108+$9.60$0
Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-06 House seat?Yes12873.2¢83¢$106+$13$0
Will the Republican Party win the KS-03 House seat?No10588.1¢95.5¢$100+$7.78$0
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?No12078¢81.5¢$98+$4.20$0
Fannie Mae IPO before 2027?No9881.8¢98.5¢$96+$16$0
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-14 House seat?Yes13740¢66.5¢$91+$36$0
Will the Republican Party win the CO-08 House seat?Yes52218.8¢14.5¢$76−$23$0
Will Blake Miguez be the Republican nominee for LA-05?No7680.7¢98.5¢$75+$14$0
Will the Democratic Party win the OH-10 House seat?No6975¢85.5¢$59+$7.25$0
US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?No6380.2¢93¢$58+$8.02$0
Will the Republican Party win the FL-14 House seat?Yes14746.4¢31¢$46−$23$0
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-09 House seat?Yes20515¢17.5¢$36+$5.13$0
Will the Democratic Party win the GA-01 House seat?Yes31011¢10.5¢$33−$1.55$0
Will the Republican Party win the MI-04 House seat?Yes6252¢52.5¢$33+$0.31$0
Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?Yes4039.1¢75.5¢$30+$15$0
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?Yes7207.8¢4.2¢$30−$26$0
Will the Democratic Party win the CO-05 House seat?No4070.5¢74.5¢$30+$1.60$0
Will the Republican Party win the IA-03 House seat?Yes11323.9¢21.5¢$24−$2.76$0
Will the Republican Party win the NY-21 House seat?Yes3173¢72¢$22−$0.31$0
Will the Democratic Party win the NV-01 House seat?Yes2383¢95.2¢$22+$2.79$0
Will the Democratic Party win the IA-02 House seat?No5150¢42.5¢$22−$3.83$0
Will Misti Cordell be the Republican nominee for LA-05?No2087.4¢96.6¢$19+$1.84$0
Will the Democratic Party win the CO-04 House seat?Yes6233.7¢29.5¢$18−$2.61$0
Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2026?Yes22319.8¢8¢$18−$26$0
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?No2057.5¢86.5¢$17+$5.80$0
Trump meets with Putin by December 31?Yes2038.5¢81¢$16+$8.50$0
Will the Republican Party win the NJ-07 House seat?Yes17420¢8¢$14−$21$0
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-06 House seat?No2785.9¢4.9¢$14−$2.76$0
Will the Republican Party win the PA-07 House seat?Yes8323¢13.5¢$11−$7.92$0
Will Taylor Swift be the top artist for 2026?Yes1484.1¢7.5¢$11+$5.08$0
Will Blagomir Kotsev win the next Bulgarian presidential election?No1080.3¢100¢$9.99+$1.97$0
Will the Republican Party win the CA-21 House seat?Yes24913¢4¢$9.84−$22$0
Will the Republican Party win the NJ-03 House seat?Yes7507¢1.3¢$9.75−$43$0
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes2141.6¢44.8¢$9.39+$0.65$0
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?No3430¢27.5¢$9.35−$0.85$0
Will the Republican Party win the NM-02 House seat?Yes23916.9¢3.2¢$7.65−$33$0
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes2,4400.7¢0.3¢$7.32−$9.90$0
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-07 House seat?No1070¢65.5¢$6.55−$0.45$0
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-22 House seat?No1447.3¢45.5¢$6.37−$0.26$0
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-21 House seat?No770¢72.5¢$5.08+$0.17$0
Will Shehbaz Sharif be TIME Person of the Year 2026?No588¢96.5¢$4.83+$0.42$0
Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027?No577¢90¢$4.50+$0.65$0
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?Yes1124¢3.3¢$3.70−$0.78$0
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?Yes65412.6¢0.5¢$3.27−$79$0
Will Donald Trump visit Colorado in 2026?No552¢59¢$2.95+$0.35$0
Will Peter Obi win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?Yes1024¢23¢$2.30−$0.10$0
Will Bad Bunny be the top artist for 2026?No1615.4¢12.5¢$2.00−$0.46$0
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested before 2027?Yes2917¢4.2¢$1.22−$3.71$0
Will the Democratic Party win the UT-02 House seat?Yes275¢4.4¢$1.19−$0.16$0
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes1032.8¢0.8¢$0.77−$2.11$0
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes1015.3¢0.8¢$0.76−$4.59$0
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland before 2027?Yes1111.7¢0.7¢$0.72−$1.16$0
Will Treg Taylor win the 2026 Alaska governor election?Yes16918.7¢0.3¢$0.42−$31$0
Will Lesil McGuire win the 2026 Alaska governor election?Yes7400.2¢0.1¢$0.37−$1.11$0
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?No3311.7¢0.9¢$0.28−$3.60$0
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?Yes5138¢0.5¢$0.23−$19$0
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes3225¢0.5¢$0.18−$7.82$0
Will Patrick Mahomes attend Taylor Swift's wedding?No2,0273.9¢0¢$0−$78−$3.77
Will Donald Trump visit California in 2026?No88229.8¢0¢$0−$263−$7.34
Will Alana Haim attend Taylor Swift's wedding?No7604¢0¢$0−$30−$1.46
Will Gracie Abrams attend Taylor Swift's wedding?No71916.2¢0¢$0−$117−$4.89
Will Jack Antonoff attend Taylor Swift's wedding?No6533.8¢0¢$0−$25−$1.21
Will Brittany Mahomes attend Taylor Swift's wedding?No5753.6¢0¢$0−$21−$1.01
Will Robert Smullen be the Republican nominee for NY-21?Yes49110.6¢0¢$0−$52−$1.86
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $1.20T on July 31?Yes40018.9¢0¢$0−$76−$2.33
Will Selena Gomez attend Taylor Swift's wedding?No3543.1¢0¢$0−$11−$0.53
Will Este Haim attend Taylor Swift's wedding?No3425¢0¢$0−$17−$0.81
Will "The Odyssey" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?No26713.4¢0¢$0−$36−$1.55
Will Tram Nguyen be the Democratic nominee for MA-06?Yes22423.8¢0¢$0−$53−$1.62
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after July 2026 meeting?No1884.7¢0¢$0−$8.90−$0.42
Will Yousef Rabhi be the Democratic nominee for the Ann Arbor Mayoral Election?No9657¢0¢$0−$55−$0.94
Will Patrick Roath be the Democratic nominee for MA-08?Yes9339.7¢0¢$0−$37−$0.88
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in June 2026?Yes682¢0¢$0−$1.36−$0.07
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Yes674.5¢0¢$0−$3.02−$0.14
Will Toby Doeden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?Yes4052¢0¢$0−$21−$0.40
Will Danielle Haim attend Taylor Swift's wedding?No375.8¢0¢$0−$2.14−$0.10
Will Mark Tedford be the Republican nominee for OK-01?No3069¢0¢$0−$20−$0.25
Will Christopher Taylor be the Democratic nominee for the Ann Arbor Mayoral Election?Yes2553¢0¢$0−$13−$0.25

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoWill the federal gas tax be suspended by November 2, 2026?78.7¢202$15969%37
BUY NoWill the federal gas tax be suspended by November 2, 2026?78¢34$2769%37
BUY NoWill the federal gas tax be suspended by November 2, 2026?78¢11$8.5869%37
BUY NoWill the federal gas tax be suspended by November 2, 2026?78¢11$8.5869%37
BUY NoWill Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026?56¢27$1569%37
BUY NoWill Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026?56¢8$4.4869%37
BUY NoWill Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026?56¢21$1269%37
BUY NoWill Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026?55¢6$3.3069%37
BUY NoWill Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026?56¢8$4.4869%37
BUY NoWill Trump pardon Eric Adams before 2027?88¢16$1469%37
BUY NoWill Trump pardon Eric Adams before 2027?88¢15$1369%37
BUY NoWill Trump pardon Eric Adams before 2027?88¢14$1269%37
BUY NoWill Trump pardon Eric Adams before 2027?88.6¢66$5969%37
BUY NoWill Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?34¢7$2.3269%37
BUY NoWill Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?5.9¢167$9.8969%37
BUY YesWill the Ornn B200 Index hit $7.50 (HIGH) by December 31, 2026?47.7¢27$1369%37
BUY YesWill the Ornn B200 Index hit $7.50 (HIGH) by December 31, 2026?60.9¢12$7.3169%37
BUY YesWill the Ornn B200 Index hit $7.50 (HIGH) by December 31, 2026?45¢88$4069%37
BUY NoWill Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2026?90.9¢61$5569%37
BUY NoWill Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2026?90.4¢65$5969%37