sharpside
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Traders/Rank #13,622

0x14a…9912

0x14a…9912
<30d oldPoliticsOther
Polymarket
PnL all-time−$4,213vol $297k
PnL 30d−$4,521gains $0.26 · losses $2,904
PnL 7d−$1,492win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate0.2%adj 2.1% · 30d 0.2%
Open value$1,090cash n/a
Positions61 / 561open / all-time
Max drawdown−98.4%of equity peak
Account age21dlast trade 1h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL−$4,444below peak −$4,372Oct 13

SharpScore inputs

28/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 0.2% · shrunk toward 50%0
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable92
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity2

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Will Oura's market cap be between $10B and $12.5B at market close on IPO day? · Yesclosed+$0.26

Worst markets

Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31? · Noopen−$145Will there be no next Meta Muse Spark model release by October 31, 2026? · Noopen−$130Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027? · Noopen−$100Will NYC have between 5 and 6 inches of precipitation in September? · Noopen−$100Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? · Yesopen−$100

Open positions · 61

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technocrat?Yes22080¢62.5¢$138−$39−$1.60
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amazonas?No20556¢48.5¢$100−$15−$11
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?Yes22080¢43.5¢$96−$80$0
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?Yes12875.8¢67.4¢$86−$11−$8.51
Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by December 31, 2027?No22039¢33.5¢$74−$12−$8.19
Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of November 2026 (Style Control On)?No9874¢63.5¢$62−$10$0
Will US GDP growth in 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?Yes9170¢50.5¢$46−$18−$0.40
Will Morgan Wallen be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026?No22030.6¢19.6¢$43−$24$0
Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?Yes11455.8¢37.4¢$43−$21−$1.56
Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?Yes22045¢18.5¢$41−$58$0
Will Waymo operate in 12-15 cities on December 31 2026?No10877.6¢32.2¢$35−$49$0
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the December interest rate announcement?Yes5661¢54.5¢$31−$3.67−$0.21
Will Moonshot AI be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?Yes20623¢14.5¢$30−$18−$5.53
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?Yes22034.7¢13.6¢$30−$47$0
Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?Yes9544¢30.5¢$29−$13−$6.44
Will there be no next Meta Muse Spark model release by October 31, 2026?No22071¢12¢$26−$130$0
Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?No4174¢57¢$24−$7.03−$1.20
Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Yes14627¢13.5¢$20−$20−$4.41
Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 40% or higher?Yes2487.4¢79.2¢$19−$1.97−$1.56
Will there be 20 to 34 West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among NYC residents in 2026?Yes12725.9¢13.6¢$17−$16$0
Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?No11447¢13.5¢$15−$38−$1.37
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 34M tonnes at end of November 2026?No2367¢60.5¢$14−$1.49−$6.23
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?No3359¢35.5¢$12−$7.73−$2.70
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?Yes2943¢34.5¢$10−$2.47−$19
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?Yes1965¢46¢$8.81−$3.64−$19
Will OpenAI not announce that it has resumed training by October 20, 2026?No4850¢18¢$8.58−$15−$0.99
Will Taylor Swift's monthly listeners figure hit 110m by October 31?Yes17417.8¢4.7¢$8.16−$23−$4.13
Will another result occur for the next governing coalition of Romania?Yes3037.2¢23¢$6.94−$4.28$0
Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31?Yes19032.5¢2.5¢$4.66−$57−$6.35
Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 50+ bps at the October meeting?Yes8337.8¢4.9¢$4.04−$27$0
Will Vicentinho Júnior win the 2026 Tocantins gubernatorial election?No756¢42.5¢$3.05−$0.97−$7.91
Lindsay Clancy convicted of manslaughter in 2026?Yes5624.5¢5.3¢$2.94−$11$0
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by November 30?No468¢59.5¢$2.44−$0.35−$0.50
Will OpenAI announce that it has resumed training on October 14, 2026?Yes599.6¢1.8¢$1.06−$4.60$0
Will Koguma peak as a Violent typhoon?Yes1817¢2.3¢$0.41−$2.71−$0.92
Will the next Muse model family be named Muse Fire?Yes22016¢0¢$0−$35$0
Will the median home value in Miami be between $1,125,000 and $1,161,000 on September 30?No22030.5¢0¢$0−$67$0
Will the next Muse model family be named Muse Flame?Yes22013.6¢0¢$0−$30$0
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin by October 31?No2209¢0¢$0−$20$0
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?No22053.8¢0¢$0−$118−$26
Spain snap election called in 2026?No22036¢0¢$0−$79$0
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?No17656.8¢0¢$0−$100$0
Will NYC have between 5 and 6 inches of precipitation in September?No13673.5¢0¢$0−$100$0
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?Yes11091¢0¢$0−$100$0
US x China tariff agreement by September 30?No814.7¢0¢$0−$3.81−$1.48
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?Yes8180¢0¢$0−$64−$3.74
Will Jynxzi, Ron or Los be eliminated by the void?Yes7425¢0¢$0−$19$0
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?No7019¢0¢$0−$13$0
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?No6933¢0¢$0−$23−$4.04
Will "Avengers: Endgame Encore" be #1 Box Office this weekend?No5549¢0¢$0−$27$0
Will Jynxzi, Ron or Los be eliminated by magic?Yes520.4¢0¢$0−$0.21$0
Will "Resident Evil" be #1 Box Office this weekend?Yes5267¢0¢$0−$35$0
Will Claude go down 5-7 times in September?No4024¢0¢$0−$9.60$0
Will Z.ai be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?No3263.7¢0¢$0−$20$0
Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $0.75 and $1.00 on September 30, 2026?No3159.8¢0¢$0−$19$0
Democratic Senate odds 62-64% on September 25?Yes2528¢0¢$0−$6.87−$0.09
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of October 10?No2446¢0¢$0−$11$0
Will MrBeast's next video get between 64 and 65 million views on day 6?Yes2224¢0¢$0−$5.28$0
Will Alibaba be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?No2040¢0¢$0−$8.00$0
Will the median home value in NYC be between $663,000 and $689,000 on September 30?No2029.6¢0¢$0−$5.92$0
Will Jay Clayton be Trump's AI czar?No1239¢0¢$0−$4.74−$4.22

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
SELL YesWill Mark Warner vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?7.5¢100$7.500%28
SELL YesMilitary action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31?32¢182$580%28
SELL NoWill Marine Le Pen win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?14.1¢220$310%28
SELL YesNext Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?74.3¢24$180%28
SELL NoWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?58¢220$1280%28
SELL YesGemini 4.0 released by October 23, 2026?85.7¢95$810%28
SELL NoWill Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 50% or higher?21¢77$160%28
SELL YesWill no next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs be appointed by February 28, 2027?33¢118$390%28
SELL YesUS announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?26.7¢220$590%28
SELL NoNo one announced as next James Bond?66¢199$1310%28
SELL YesWill there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?33.3¢220$730%28
SELL NoWill Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 60% or higher?84¢50$420%28
SELL NoNext Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?17.2¢171$290%28
SELL YesWill the next Muse model family be named Muse Watermelon?0.2¢61$0.120%28
SELL NoUS imports Russian diesel by October 31?76.2¢220$1680%28
SELL NoWill an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?78¢217$1690%28
SELL NoWill there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?12¢107$130%28
SELL YesIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31?36¢87$310%28
SELL NoWill Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?88.6¢50$440%28
SELL NoNext Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?80¢22$180%28