PnL all-time−$214vol $6,193
PnL 30d−$0.69gains $0 · losses $0
PnL 7d+$1.00win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate72.2%adj 60.5% · 30d 0.0%
Open value$195cash n/a
Positions18 / 36open / all-time
Max drawdown−27.3%of equity peak
Account age12molast trade 10mo ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL−$250below peak −$259Oct 14
SharpScore inputs
20/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 72.2% · shrunk toward 50%51
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable52
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d0
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity73
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
Will any of the stolen Louvre jewels be returned by December 31? · Noclosed+$25Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? · Noopen+$15Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $100k first? · 80kopen+$15Nothing Ever Happens: November · Yesclosed+$14US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? · Yesclosed+$9.11
Worst markets
House passes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025? · Noclosed−$50Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31? · Noopen−$36Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 8? · Yesopen−$31Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by October 31? · Yesclosed−$30Will any of the stolen Louvre jewels be returned by October 31 · Yesclosed−$30
Open positions · 5
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? | No | 100 | 85¢ | 100¢ | $100 | +$15 | $0 | |
| Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $100k first? | 80k | 140 | 72.6¢ | 50¢ | $70 | −$32 | +$47 | |
| Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 606 | 3.3¢ | 1.8¢ | $11 | −$9.39 | $0 | |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 91 | 22¢ | 9.2¢ | $8.32 | −$12 | $0 | |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 439 | 4.6¢ | 1.3¢ | $5.48 | −$15 | $0 |
Recent trades
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