sharpside
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Traders/Rank #5,240

Askeladd.

0x15d…ec0f
WR 70+WR 60+Politics
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$2,137vol $59.7k
PnL 30d+$1,573gains $3,695 · losses $486
PnL 7d+$92win rate 7d 71.4%
Win rate71.4%adj 67.6% · 30d 72.5%
Open value$2,609cash n/a
Positions55 / 146open / all-time
Max drawdown−13.0%of equity peak
Account age37dlast trade 10h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$2,365below peak −$273Oct 12

SharpScore inputs

67/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale48
Adjusted win rateraw 71.4% · shrunk toward 50%69
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable72
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d98
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity87

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by September 30, 2026? · Yesclosed+$503Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026? · Yesclosed+$366Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 3, 2026? · Yesclosed+$339Israel military action against Lebanon on September 5? · Yesclosed+$329Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 17, 2026? · Yesclosed+$227

Worst markets

Will Trump not announce his AI czar pick by December 31, 2026? · Yesopen−$155Will "Patient Zero" hit 60m first week streams? · Yesopen−$134Tread FDV above $40M one day after launch · Noopen−$129U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by September 30? · Noopen−$114Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · Yesopen−$104

Open positions · 55

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes1,03429¢30.5¢$316+$16$0
Will Iran target Iraq by October 15, 2026?Yes56545¢54.5¢$308+$54$0
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 5% and 15% on December 31?Yes28149.8¢78.5¢$220+$80$0
Will Iran target an Arab country by October 15, 2026?Yes40752.6¢53.5¢$218+$3.57$0
Will Drake be featured on GTA VI: The Album?Yes65637¢28.5¢$187−$56$0
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes19079¢80.5¢$153+$2.85−$12
Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 30, 2026?No48431¢30.5¢$148−$2.42$0
StandX FDV above $200M one day after launch?No22467¢65.5¢$147−$3.36$0
Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 5-October 11?No16959¢81¢$137+$37$0
Will Yisrael Beiteinu win 8-9 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Yes24348.7¢51.5¢$125+$6.80$0
Will Trump and Putin not meet?No13574¢82¢$111+$11$0
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?No15664.2¢66.5¢$104+$3.54$0
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy by October 31?No21539.6¢45.5¢$98+$13$0
Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by October 31, 2026?No12779¢68¢$86−$14$0
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte by October 31?No9958.5¢44¢$44−$14$0
Israel military action against Lebanon on October 22?No21823¢19¢$41−$8.64$0
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes7241.7¢52.4¢$38+$7.66$0
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 2?No6053.3¢60¢$36+$4.00$0
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher?No3860¢73¢$28+$4.98$0
Will Trump endorse Likud in the 2026 Israeli Election?Yes16913¢11.5¢$19−$2.54$0
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 23, 2026?No3059.1¢60.5¢$18+$0.41$0
Will there be no next Meta Muse Spark model release by October 31, 2026?Yes1667.6¢79.5¢$13+$1.94$0
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 26?Yes2053¢57.5¢$12+$0.90$0
Will Eli Cohen be the next Israeli Minister of Finance?Yes604.2¢5.7¢$3.42+$0.90$0
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 1?Yes5,0000.1¢0¢$0−$5.00$0
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by September 30?No1,0185.9¢0¢$0−$61−$53
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24?No8688.6¢0¢$0−$75−$2.74
Will Trump not announce his AI czar pick by December 31, 2026?Yes78816.8¢0¢$0−$133−$22
Will "Patient Zero" hit 35m first week streams?No7107¢0¢$0−$50−$2.32
Will "Patient Zero" hit 70m first week streams?Yes68510.2¢0¢$0−$70−$2.79
Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes62516¢0¢$0−$100−$4.20
Israel military action against Lebanon on September 15?No54811.3¢0¢$0−$62$0
Will "Patient Zero" hit 60m first week streams?Yes41731.2¢0¢$0−$130−$4.41
Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?Yes38513¢0¢$0−$50$0
Will "Patient Zero" hit 80m first week streams?Yes3472.9¢0¢$0−$10.00−$0.49
Will Houthis target Saudi Arabia by September 30, 2026?No30010¢0¢$0−$30$0
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Yes25012¢0¢$0−$30−$1.32
Israel military action against Lebanon on September 16?No23813¢0¢$0−$31$0
Tread FDV above $40M one day after launchNo23852.6¢0¢$0−$125−$4.15
Will Russia target Kyiv on September 13, 2026?No23228.9¢0¢$0−$67$0
Will Trump say "Iran" 2+ times during his announcement?No21532.5¢0¢$0−$70−$1.89
Israel military action against Lebanon on September 10?No2039.8¢0¢$0−$20$0
Israel military action against Lebanon on September 20?No16422¢0¢$0−$36$0
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during his announcement?No14734¢0¢$0−$50−$1.32
Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 28-October 4?Yes14047.1¢0¢$0−$66$0
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4?Yes13253¢0¢$0−$70$0
Will voter turnout be between 56% and 59% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?Yes12524¢0¢$0−$30−$0.91
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.10–$2.20 in August?Yes12041.7¢0¢$0−$50−$1.46
Will Tread launch a token by September 30, 2026?No1000.1¢0¢$0−$0.10$0
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?Yes9049.3¢0¢$0−$44−$0.65
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 24, 2026?Yes5919.1¢0¢$0−$11−$32
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through September 22?No595¢0¢$0−$2.93$0
Will "Heart of the Beast" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 23m?No5663¢0¢$0−$35−$0.65
Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?Yes5573¢0¢$0−$40−$0.54
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 26?Yes2077¢0¢$0−$15+$0.85

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
SELL NoWill Trump say "Ammunition" this week?73.3¢275$20171%67
BUY YesWill Iran target an Arab country by October 15, 2026?52¢133$6971%67
BUY NoWill Trump say "Ammunition" this week?75.4¢66$5071%67
BUY NoWill Trump say "Ammunition" this week?71.9¢209$15071%67
BUY YesWill there be no next Meta Muse Spark model release by October 31, 2026?67.6¢16$1171%67
BUY YesWill Iran target Iraq by October 15, 2026?44.5¢79$3571%67
BUY YesWill Iran target an Arab country by October 15, 2026?52.9¢274$14571%67
BUY YesWill Iran target Iraq by October 15, 2026?46.1¢347$16071%67
BUY YesWill Iran target Iraq by October 15, 2026?42.3¢139$5971%67
BUY NoWill Iran target the United Arab Emirates by October 31, 2026?79¢127$10071%67
BUY NoWill Predict.fun launch a token by November 30, 2026?31¢484$15071%67
BUY NoWill Trump speak to Mark Rutte by October 31?58.5¢99$5871%67
BUY NoWill Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy by October 31?39.6¢215$8571%67
SELL YesUS imports Russian diesel by October 31?35.2¢382$13571%67
SELL YesIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?74.8¢260$19471%67
BUY YesUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?79¢190$15071%67
SELL YesWill Trump meet with Marcos by December 31, 2026?88.9¢140$12471%67
BUY NoStandX FDV above $200M one day after launch?67¢224$15071%67
BUY YesIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?77¢260$20071%67
SELL YesWill the Danube River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?19.9¢209$4271%67