sharpside
LIVE--:--:-- UTCdata as of —24h vol —trades —whale trades —markets —Polymarket flow, ranked — who’s sharp, who’s early, where size is moving.
Traders/Unranked

cmarx

0x173…9411@carlmarxpmt
WR 70+WR 60+Politics
Polymarket
PnL all-time−$25vol $277k
PnL 30d−$31gains $884 · losses $0
PnL 7d−$1,084win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate74.6%adj 70.9% · 30d 100.0%
Open value$13.3kcash n/a
Positions44 / 158open / all-time
Max drawdown−95.5%of equity peak
Account age8molast trade 3h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$2,305below peak −$2,871Oct 12

SharpScore inputs

44/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 74.6% · shrunk toward 50%77
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable73
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity5

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 44

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes12.0k57.1¢50.9¢$6,114−$739$0
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes22.5k10.4¢10.4¢$2,330−$8.17$0
Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?Yes1,83732.5¢78.5¢$1,441+$845+$806
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?No2,11564.6¢56.5¢$1,195−$172−$162
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Yes2,70032¢37.5¢$1,013+$149$0
Will Trump say "Ammunition" this week?No1,01975.4¢73.4¢$748−$20$0
Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election?No39194¢98.7¢$386+$18$0
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Yes31021¢15.5¢$48−$17$0
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?Yes25362.7¢19¢$48−$110$0
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026?Yes3,54775.5¢0¢$0−$2,678−$9.40
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?Yes3,5006.5¢0¢$0−$228$0
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?Yes1,96538.8¢0¢$0−$764$0
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?No1,70056.5¢0¢$0−$960−$6.93
Will GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026?No1,60914¢0¢$0−$225−$7.75
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?No1,55081.8¢0¢$0−$1,269−$635
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO3) - The International PlayoffsTeam Liquid1,35137¢0¢$0−$500−$16
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?No1,30027.7¢0¢$0−$360$0
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?No1,17761.1¢0¢$0−$719$0
Will Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) beat quarterly earnings?Yes1,1152.9¢0¢$0−$33$0
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 10, 2026?Yes1,07938¢0¢$0−$409$0
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?Yes1,00015.9¢0¢$0−$159$0
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30?Yes83117.8¢0¢$0−$148$0
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?No80371¢0¢$0−$570$0
Will Trump say "Mutilation" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conference?Yes77214.6¢0¢$0−$113−$2.99
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?No75656.7¢0¢$0−$428−$7.43
Will Russell Fry be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Yes75513.8¢0¢$0−$104−$3.60
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?Yes71766.6¢0¢$0−$478$0
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?Yes67080.5¢0¢$0−$539$0
Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?No55632.7¢0¢$0−$182−$4.89
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes49616.6¢0¢$0−$82$0
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Yes44386¢0¢$0−$381$0
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?No37850.7¢0¢$0−$192−$3.78
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 13?Yes21279¢0¢$0−$167$0
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 2?No19019.4¢0¢$0−$37−$1.19
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?Yes17771¢0¢$0−$126$0
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 14?Yes1296.1¢0¢$0−$7.87$0
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 15?Yes11359¢0¢$0−$66$0
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026?Yes9054¢0¢$0−$49$0
Israel closes its airspace by June 8?Yes8763.2¢0¢$0−$55$0
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 12, 2026?Yes7448.3¢0¢$0−$36$0
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?Yes6525.9¢0¢$0−$17$0
Will Donald Trump be the first substitute White House Press Secretary?Yes4143.6¢0¢$0−$18$0
Will Trump visit China by April 30?Yes2041¢0¢$0−$8.20$0
Will Trump say "Patriot" during Fox interview on Wednesday?No1976.7¢0¢$0−$14$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoWill Trump say "Ammunition" this week?76.4¢519$39675%44
SELL NoWill Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?60¢2,115$1,26975%44
BUY YesWill the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?32¢2,000$64075%44
SELL YesWill Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?77.9¢1,837$1,43175%44
SELL NoWill Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?64.7¢1,410$91275%44
BUY YesWill the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?32¢700$22475%44
BUY YesWill Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?57.1¢12.0k$6,85375%44
BUY NoWill OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1510?79¢360$28475%44
BUY YesWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?80¢405$32475%44
BUY YesWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?80.4¢3,250$2,61575%44
BUY YesWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?76¢820$62375%44
BUY NoWill GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026?14¢1,609$22575%44
BUY YesWill Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?10.4¢22.5k$2,33975%44
BUY NoWill Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election?94¢391$36875%44
BUY YesWill Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?33¢216$7175%44
BUY YesWill Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?32.4¢3,407$1,10475%44
BUY Team LiquidDota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO3) - The International Playoffs37¢1,081$40075%44
BUY Team LiquidDota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO3) - The International Playoffs37¢270$10075%44
BUY YesNATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?38.7¢935$36275%44
BUY YesNATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?39¢1,000$39075%44