PnL all-time+$24.7kvol $642k
PnL 30d−$11.6kgains $0 · losses $0
PnL 7d−$636win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate96.4%adj 84.2% · 30d 0.0%
Open value$82.1kcash n/a
Positions10 / 66open / all-time
Max drawdown−8.4%of equity peak
Account age1.0ylast trade 1h ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL+$28.3kbelow peak −$943Oct 13
SharpScore inputs
69/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale63
Adjusted win rateraw 96.4% · shrunk toward 50%100
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable61
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity92
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? · Noclosed+$1,849Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? · Yesclosed+$1,795Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? · Noclosed+$1,508Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yesopen+$1,493Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? · Yesclosed+$1,404
Worst markets
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Yesopen−$1,586Maduro out in 2025? · Noclosed−$874Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? · Yesopen−$81Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2025? · Noclosed−$26Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? · Yesopen−$22
Open positions · 10
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 29.3k | 85.4¢ | 90.5¢ | $26.5k | +$1,493 | $0 | |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 12.0k | 87¢ | 97.8¢ | $11.7k | +$1,290 | $0 | |
| Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 10.7k | 94¢ | 96.1¢ | $10.3k | +$219 | $0 | |
| Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? | No | 7,293 | 97.1¢ | 99.9¢ | $7,282 | +$202 | $0 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | No | 7,130 | 98.3¢ | 100¢ | $7,130 | +$122 | $0 | |
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | No | 6,200 | 98¢ | 100¢ | $6,200 | +$124 | −$4.86 | |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | No | 5,800 | 87¢ | 94.2¢ | $5,461 | +$415 | $0 | |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 5,400 | 75¢ | 73.5¢ | $3,969 | −$81 | $0 | |
| Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? | Yes | 4,400 | 81¢ | 80.5¢ | $3,542 | −$22 | $0 | |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | Yes | 3,220 | 48¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,546 | −$40 |
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