PnL all-time+$135kvol $4.91M
PnL 30d−$773gains $4,250 · losses $18.2k
PnL 7d+$305win rate 7d 8.1%
Win rate51.9%adj 51.8% · 30d 8.1%
Open value$23.2kcash n/a
Positions9 / 781open / all-time
Max drawdown−7.1%of equity peak
Account age1.9ylast trade 7d ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL+$137kbelow peak −$3,568Oct 9
SharpScore inputs
67/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale73
Adjusted win rateraw 51.9% · shrunk toward 50%29
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable96
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d74
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity93
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? · Yesclosed+$24.6kStarmer out by July 31, 2026? · Yesclosed+$20.9kWill Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election? · Yesclosed+$18.6kUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? · Yesclosed+$9,251MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? · Noclosed+$8,236
Worst markets
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? · Yesclosed−$4,774Epstein blackmail evidence released by March 31? · Yesclosed−$4,031Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yesopen−$3,920US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? · Yesclosed−$3,303US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? · Noclosed−$2,930
Open positions · 9
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 13.0k | 50¢ | 80.2¢ | $10.4k | +$3,920 | $0 | |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | No | 8,699 | 84.6¢ | 97¢ | $8,438 | +$1,081 | +$326 | |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 13.0k | 50¢ | 19.9¢ | $2,581 | −$3,920 | $0 | |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | 15.0k | 12¢ | 9.5¢ | $1,425 | −$375 | $0 | |
| Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? | Yes | 966 | 36¢ | 21.5¢ | $208 | −$140 | +$0.10 | |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | Yes | 3,238 | 6.1¢ | 1.8¢ | $57 | −$142 | −$152 | |
| Dutch House of Representatives dissolved in 2026? | No | 30 | 80¢ | 93.9¢ | $28 | +$4.16 | +$0.45 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | Yes | 151 | 23¢ | 5¢ | $7.53 | −$27 | $0 | |
| Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration before 2027? | Yes | 9 | 10¢ | 6.5¢ | $0.59 | −$0.32 | $0 |
Recent trades
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