PnL all-time+$1,060vol $30.4k
PnL 30d+$518gains $722 · losses $111
PnL 7d+$1.64win rate 7d 50.0%
Win rate78.0%adj 72.5% · 30d 78.3%
Open value$2,746cash n/a
Positions13 / 95open / all-time
Max drawdown−29.2%of equity peak
Account age1.2ylast trade 1d ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL+$1,153below peak −$69Oct 13
SharpScore inputs
64/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale43
Adjusted win rateraw 78.0% · shrunk toward 50%81
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable66
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d96
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity71
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by September 15, 2026? · Noclosed+$171Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by September 30, 2026? · Noclosed+$127Will Iran target Qatar by September 15, 2026? · Noclosed+$95Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31? · Yesclosed+$88Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026? · Noopen+$86
Worst markets
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31? · Noclosed−$99Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31? · Noclosed−$97Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? · Yesclosed−$89Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31? · Noclosed−$81Will Russia capture Bilytske by September 30, 2026? · Yesclosed−$70
Open positions · 13
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026? | No | 952 | 85.5¢ | 94.6¢ | $900 | +$86 | $0 | |
| Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by October 31, 2026? | No | 536 | 76.5¢ | 74¢ | $396 | −$14 | $0 | |
| Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by October 31, 2026? | No | 247 | 80.3¢ | 93.2¢ | $230 | +$32 | $0 | |
| Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by November 30, 2026? | No | 349 | 78.4¢ | 62¢ | $216 | −$57 | $0 | |
| Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by October 31? | No | 233 | 86¢ | 87.5¢ | $203 | +$3.49 | $0 | |
| Will Iran target Qatar by October 31, 2026? | No | 203 | 85.3¢ | 95.6¢ | $194 | +$21 | $0 | |
| Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? | No | 247 | 60¢ | 64¢ | $158 | +$9.87 | $0 | |
| Eritrea invades Ethiopia by October 31? | No | 157 | 83¢ | 83¢ | $130 | $0 | $0 | |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Terny by October 31, 2026? | No | 125 | 80¢ | 84¢ | $105 | +$5.00 | $0 | |
| Eritrea invades Ethiopia by December 31? | No | 130 | 77¢ | 67.5¢ | $88 | −$12 | $0 | |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31? | No | 106 | 66.1¢ | 68¢ | $72 | +$1.96 | $0 | |
| Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by December 31, 2026? | No | 55 | 54.9¢ | 69.5¢ | $38 | +$7.98 | $0 | |
| Will the USS George H.W. Bush be in CENTCOM on November 30, 2026? | No | 72 | 69.9¢ | 22.5¢ | $16 | −$34 | $0 |
Recent trades
auto-refresh 30s