| Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? | Yes | 984 | 15.4¢ | 76.5¢ | $753 | +$601 | $0 | |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 594 | 14.7¢ | 69.3¢ | $411 | +$324 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic launch a Muse-like personal agent before 2027? | No | 292 | 63¢ | 91¢ | $265 | +$82 | $0 | |
| Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026? | Yes | 257 | 31.4¢ | 90.6¢ | $233 | +$152 | $0 | |
| Will Trump and Putin not meet? | No | 187 | 36.1¢ | 81¢ | $151 | +$84 | $0 | |
| Natural Disaster in 2026? | No | 126 | 72¢ | 91¢ | $115 | +$24 | $0 | |
| Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? | No | 449 | 51.5¢ | 22¢ | $99 | −$132 | $0 | |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | 96 | 92¢ | 97.2¢ | $93 | +$4.95 | −$1.04 | |
| Will OpenAI have the best Image Edit AI at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 98 | 77.9¢ | 85.5¢ | $84 | +$7.44 | $0 | |
| Will ByteDance have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026? | No | 94 | 78.4¢ | 87¢ | $82 | +$8.11 | $0 | |
| Will Google be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026? | No | 85 | 88¢ | 87¢ | $74 | −$0.85 | $0 | |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher? | No | 104 | 56¢ | 63.5¢ | $66 | +$7.82 | $0 | |
| Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027? | No | 83 | 75.1¢ | 77.5¢ | $64 | +$2.01 | $0 | |
| Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 608 | 37.9¢ | 10.5¢ | $64 | −$167 | $0 | |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? | No | 74 | 77.8¢ | 84.5¢ | $63 | +$5.01 | −$0.34 | |
| Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 211 | 50.5¢ | 29¢ | $61 | −$45 | $0 | |
| Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $1.00 and $1.25 on October 31, 2026? | Yes | 194 | 51.9¢ | 31.5¢ | $61 | −$40 | −$1.74 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 84 | 29¢ | 72.5¢ | $61 | +$36 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | No | 69 | 70¢ | 87.5¢ | $60 | +$12 | $0 | |
| Will GPT Astra's output price be at or below $25 in 2026? | No | 77 | 85¢ | 76.5¢ | $59 | −$6.55 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 83 | 74.9¢ | 70.5¢ | $59 | −$3.67 | $0 | |
| Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026? | Yes | 71 | 33.4¢ | 80.5¢ | $57 | +$34 | $0 | |
| Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $303,000 and $308,000 on December 31? | No | 65 | 85.6¢ | 85.3¢ | $55 | −$0.19 | $0 | |
| Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by October 31, 2026? | No | 102 | 22¢ | 53.5¢ | $54 | +$32 | $0 | |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher? | No | 55 | 83.5¢ | 95.3¢ | $53 | +$6.50 | $0 | |
| Will Claude Opus's output price be at or below $10 in 2026? | No | 62 | 84¢ | 79.5¢ | $49 | −$2.80 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 59 | 62.4¢ | 79¢ | $47 | +$9.84 | $0 | |
| Will more than 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026? | No | 73 | 45.1¢ | 62.5¢ | $46 | +$13 | $0 | |
| Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? | No | 100 | 81¢ | 42.5¢ | $43 | −$39 | $0 | |
| Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027? | No | 99 | 64.4¢ | 42.5¢ | $42 | −$22 | $0 | |
| Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? | Yes | 54 | 54¢ | 78¢ | $42 | +$13 | $0 | |
| Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? | No | 44 | 86.5¢ | 94.2¢ | $41 | +$3.34 | −$0.33 | |
| Tom Holland as Spider-Man? | No | 79 | 58¢ | 51.5¢ | $41 | −$5.12 | $0 | |
| Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 119 | 33.8¢ | 33.5¢ | $40 | −$0.32 | $0 | |
| Will Alibaba be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026? | No | 48 | 84¢ | 81.8¢ | $39 | −$1.06 | $0 | |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 40 | 64¢ | 96.1¢ | $38 | +$13 | $0 | |
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | No | 43 | 84¢ | 89.5¢ | $38 | +$2.37 | +$25 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 43 | 37.4¢ | 88¢ | $38 | +$22 | $0 | |
| Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027? | No | 41 | 88¢ | 88.5¢ | $36 | +$0.20 | $0 | |
| Next Grok Model (4.8+) released by November 30, 2026? | Yes | 42 | 85¢ | 86.5¢ | $36 | +$0.62 | $0 | |
| Will ChatGPT Dots be available on the free plan by October 31, 2026? | No | 38 | 85¢ | 95¢ | $36 | +$3.76 | $0 | |
| Will there be 20 to 34 West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among NYC residents in 2026? | Yes | 147 | 42¢ | 23.3¢ | $34 | −$28 | $0 | |
| Will Google be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of November 2026? | No | 39 | 72¢ | 88¢ | $34 | +$6.24 | $0 | |
| Will Seoul have 85mm or more of precipitation in October? | No | 41 | 90.6¢ | 84.5¢ | $34 | −$2.48 | $0 | |
| Will Pablo Picasso be #1 in global fine art auction turnover for 2026? | Yes | 42 | 75¢ | 81.5¢ | $34 | +$2.71 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 46 | 70¢ | 70.5¢ | $32 | +$0.23 | $0 | |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 137 | 55.2¢ | 23.5¢ | $32 | −$43 | +$7.79 | |
| Will the lowest St. Louis river level be -1.00 to 0.99 ft by November 30? | Yes | 170 | 27¢ | 16.5¢ | $28 | −$18 | $0 | |
| Supreme Court vacancy in 2026? | No | 31 | 65¢ | 90¢ | $28 | +$7.76 | $0 | |
| Will FaZe win a Tier 1 event in 2026? | No | 28 | 86.6¢ | 96.8¢ | $28 | +$2.89 | −$7.61 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 36 | 55.7¢ | 67¢ | $24 | +$4.08 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 36 | 45.9¢ | 66.5¢ | $24 | +$7.44 | $0 | |
| Will Polymarket mindshare hit 75% by December 31? | No | 36 | 6.6¢ | 65.8¢ | $24 | +$21 | $0 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 53 | 79.4¢ | 44.6¢ | $23 | −$18 | $0 | |
| Kimi K4 released by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 267 | 14.9¢ | 8.5¢ | $23 | −$17 | $0 | |
| Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.55 and $0.60 on October 31, 2026? | Yes | 88 | 14.4¢ | 25.5¢ | $22 | +$9.72 | $0 | |
| Will Meituan be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)? | No | 22 | 98¢ | 99.6¢ | $22 | +$0.35 | $0 | |
| Meta's Watermelon released by October 15, 2026? | No | 39 | 43.4¢ | 55¢ | $21 | +$4.52 | $0 | |
| Evangeline Lilly as the Wasp? | No | 22 | 90.2¢ | 91.5¢ | $20 | +$0.29 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026? | No | 21 | 51¢ | 88.5¢ | $18 | +$7.82 | $0 | |
| Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 32 | 40.7¢ | 56.5¢ | $18 | +$4.97 | $0 | |
| Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.50 and $7.00 on December 31, 2026? | Yes | 258 | 13¢ | 6.8¢ | $18 | −$16 | $0 | |
| Will the lowest Baton Rouge river level be 6.00 ft or more by November 30? | No | 26 | 53.5¢ | 68.6¢ | $18 | +$3.84 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 40 | 49¢ | 42.5¢ | $17 | −$2.60 | $0 | |
| Will Alibaba be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026? | No | 18 | 89.5¢ | 94.7¢ | $17 | +$0.92 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500? | Yes | 64 | 49.2¢ | 26.5¢ | $17 | −$14 | $0 | |
| Will MiniMax have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 19 | 40.4¢ | 86.5¢ | $16 | +$8.65 | $0 | |
| Will the peak severe (S2+) drought coverage in Minas Gerais be 5% to 19.99%? | Yes | 55 | 26¢ | 28.5¢ | $16 | +$1.38 | $0 | |
| Will Thinky have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of October 2026? | No | 16 | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | $16 | +$0.13 | $0 | |
| Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.50 and $0.55 on October 31, 2026? | Yes | 133 | 21.6¢ | 11.7¢ | $16 | −$13 | $0 | |
| Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.75 and $3.00 on November 30, 2026? | Yes | 86 | 20.6¢ | 18¢ | $15 | −$2.25 | $0 | |
| Will ByteDance's valuation hit (LOW) $300B by December 31? | No | 15 | 85.3¢ | 99¢ | $15 | +$2.05 | $0 | |
| Will the lowest 2026 Great Salt Lake elevation be 4,189.5 or 4,189.6 ft? | Yes | 238 | 54¢ | 6¢ | $14 | −$114 | $0 | |
| Will Meta's Watermelon model debut at a score of at least 1505 by June 30, 2027? | No | 20 | 57¢ | 70.5¢ | $14 | +$2.70 | $0 | |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? | Yes | 15 | 87¢ | 95.5¢ | $14 | +$1.24 | $0 | |
| Will Grok Bot be available on the free plan by October 31, 2026? | No | 16 | 89.3¢ | 89¢ | $14 | −$0.05 | $0 | |
| Benedict Wong as Wong? | No | 49 | 39¢ | 28.5¢ | $14 | −$5.10 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 22 | 72¢ | 64¢ | $14 | −$1.73 | $0 | |
| Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $5.50 on October 31, 2026? | Yes | 60 | 27.3¢ | 22¢ | $13 | −$3.17 | $0 | |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 31 | 7¢ | 42.5¢ | $13 | +$11 | $0 | |
| Will there be no Meta Watermelon model release by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 49 | 21.7¢ | 26.5¢ | $13 | +$2.31 | $0 | |
| China ballistic missile launch by December 31? | No | 15 | 82¢ | 82.5¢ | $13 | +$0.08 | $0 | |
| Will Google be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 52 | 43.9¢ | 23.5¢ | $12 | −$10 | $0 | |
| Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 38 | 49.8¢ | 31.5¢ | $12 | −$7.02 | $0 | |
| Will the lowest St. Louis river level be 1.00 to 2.99 ft by November 30? | Yes | 50 | 21¢ | 22.5¢ | $11 | +$0.75 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 36 | 38.9¢ | 29.5¢ | $11 | −$3.36 | $0 | |
| Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be between $1,115,000 and $1,126,000 on December 31? | Yes | 53 | 19¢ | 19.5¢ | $10 | +$0.26 | $0 | |
| Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by October 31, 2026? | No | 23 | 18¢ | 43¢ | $10 | +$5.86 | $0 | |
| Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 28 | 42¢ | 36.5¢ | $10 | −$1.51 | $0 | |
| Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $3.00 and $3.50 on December 31, 2026? | Yes | 62 | 11.5¢ | 16.3¢ | $10 | +$2.93 | $0 | |
| Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 23 | 33.3¢ | 41.1¢ | $9.39 | +$1.77 | $0 | |
| Will GPT Sol's output price be at or below $5 in 2026? | No | 13 | 80¢ | 73¢ | $9.37 | −$0.90 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 14 | 73¢ | 65.5¢ | $9.21 | −$1.05 | $0 | |
| Will Hong Kong have between 70-120mm of precipitation in October? | No | 52 | 26¢ | 17¢ | $8.83 | −$4.68 | $0 | |
| Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $3.50 and $4.00 on December 31, 2026? | Yes | 75 | 9¢ | 11.4¢ | $8.50 | +$1.79 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510? | No | 12 | 60.9¢ | 71.4¢ | $8.40 | +$1.23 | $0 | |
| Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? | Yes | 175 | 19¢ | 4.3¢ | $7.46 | −$26 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 13 | 60¢ | 57.5¢ | $7.27 | −$0.32 | $0 | |
| Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be at least $1,165,000 on December 31? | No | 8 | 84¢ | 91.9¢ | $7.16 | +$0.61 | $0 | |
| Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 1,518 | 0.5¢ | 0.5¢ | $6.83 | −$0.96 | $0 | |