sharpside
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Traders/Rank #5,987

Mrpike

0x196…5e04
SharpWR 80+WR 70+WR 60+PoliticsOtherCulture
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$1,590vol $37.9k
PnL 30d−$451gains $848 · losses $71
PnL 7d+$107win rate 7d 75.0%
Win rate82.9%adj 80.2% · 30d 90.9%
Open value$1,332cash n/a
Positions71 / 290open / all-time
Max drawdown−32.0%of equity peak
Account age9molast trade 22h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$1,859below peak −$564Oct 13

SharpScore inputs

76/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale46
Adjusted win rateraw 82.9% · shrunk toward 50%100
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable82
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d97
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity68

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look" get less than 10 million views on day 1? · Yesclosed+$278Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 940m and 950m by September 30? · Noclosed+$215Will fewer than 200 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 27-August 2? · Noclosed+$156Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31? · Noclosed+$152Will Trump say "Uranium" this week? · Noclosed+$142

Worst markets

Will MrBeast's next video get at least 45 million views on day 1? · Noopen−$303Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on September 28, 2026? · Noopen−$224Will MrBeast's next video get at least 100 million views on week 1? · Noopen−$203Will Trump say "UFC" this week? · Noopen−$158Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 4, 2026? · Noopen−$107

Open positions · 71

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will the EU lift its ban on Russian diesel imports by October 31, 2026?No34786.4¢99.5¢$345+$45$0
Will GitHub's longest critical incident in October 2026 be at least 12 hours?No22787.9¢87.5¢$199−$1.04$0
Will Ledger announce compensation or reimbursement for affected users by October 16?No11587¢96.2¢$111+$11$0
Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 15?No10991.9¢99.5¢$108+$8.21$0
Will the EU lift its ban on Russian diesel imports by December 31, 2026?No12878¢82.5¢$106+$5.77$0
Will "Street Fighter" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 25m?No10628.2¢84.9¢$90+$60$0
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 9?No13474.4¢67¢$90−$9.94$0
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 25?No12480.8¢61¢$76−$24$0
Will "You Can See Everything" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 7m?No12639.8¢39.5¢$50−$0.33$0
Will "Whalefall" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m?No11145.1¢41.5¢$46−$3.96$0
Will JOLTS Job Openings be at least 7.4M in September?No2969.3¢67.5¢$19−$0.52$0
ChatGPT Full Outage by October 31?No2773¢70.5¢$19−$0.68$0
Will JOLTS Job Openings be below 6.8M in September?No1471¢80.5¢$11+$1.34$0
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 43.0 and 45.9 in October?No2050¢56¢$11+$1.20$0
Will Claude go down 11-13 times in October?No1378¢84.5¢$11+$0.83$0
Will "Whalefall" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 10m?No1469¢70¢$10+$0.14$0
Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.2M and 7.3M in September?No1286¢77.5¢$9.01−$0.99$0
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31?No1242¢67.5¢$8.04+$3.04$0
Will gas be below $3.75/gallon in any state on October 31?Yes1474¢41.5¢$5.61−$4.39$0
Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.3M and 7.4M in September?No687¢84¢$4.83−$0.17$0
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 150m and 160m by October 31?No4842¢4.4¢$2.07−$18$0
Will the #1 global Netflix movie have between 20 and 24 million views this week?No147¢0.8¢$0.11−$0.89$0
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 960m and 970m by September 30?Yes1,4801.4¢0¢$0−$20−$0.99
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on September 28, 2026?No41353.2¢0¢$0−$220−$4.11
Will MrBeast's next video get at least 45 million views on day 1?No38578¢0¢$0−$300−$3.30
Will "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore" first week sales be at least 300k?Yes3079.2¢0¢$0−$28+$14
Will "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore" first week sales be at least 250k?Yes27234.3¢0¢$0−$93−$2.16
Will MrBeast's next video get at least 100 million views on week 1?No26775¢0¢$0−$200−$2.50
Will Trump say "UFC" this week?No22370¢0¢$0−$156−$1.81
Will "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore" first week sales be at least 200k?Yes20748.4¢0¢$0−$100−$2.58
Will Trump say "Bahrain" this week?No18632.2¢0¢$0−$60−$1.37
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 4, 2026?No18258.9¢0¢$0−$107$0
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $800b on June 30?No1258¢0¢$0−$10−$0.37
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?No12365¢0¢$0−$80−$1.12
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 11, 2026?No10189¢0¢$0−$90$0
Will 180-199 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 17-August 23?Yes10010¢0¢$0−$10$0
Will 160-179 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 24-August 30?Yes9720.6¢0¢$0−$20$0
UK Cabinet Minister resigns by May 31, 2026?No9022.2¢0¢$0−$20−$0.62
Will "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 27m and 30m?No9044.6¢0¢$0−$40−$1.10
Rockstar confirms GTA VI gameplay leaked?No8050.2¢0¢$0−$40−$0.99
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?No7071¢0¢$0−$50$0
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 10?No6182.2¢0¢$0−$50$0
Grok 4.6 released by August 14, 2026?No5917¢0¢$0−$10.00−$0.33
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (LOW) $12.5B by June 30?No5843¢0¢$0−$25−$16
Will OpenAI reset Codex weekly usage limit by September 7?No5618¢0¢$0−$10.00−$0.33
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 24-August 30?Yes5418.4¢0¢$0−$10.00$0
Will there be at least 2150 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?Yes5337.5¢0¢$0−$20−$0.62
Will Trump announce new sanctions on China?Yes539.4¢0¢$0−$5.00−$0.18
Another confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 31?No5162.8¢0¢$0−$32−$0.56
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 7?No5080¢0¢$0−$40$0
Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 10?No4522¢0¢$0−$10.00−$0.39
Next White House Press Secretary announced by September 11, 2026?Yes4522¢0¢$0−$10.00−$0.31
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 24, 2026?No4588¢0¢$0−$40$0
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?No4049.5¢0¢$0−$20$0
Epstein suicide note released by May 31?Yes367¢0¢$0−$2.50−$1.84
Will Ukraine target Moscow on September 28, 2026?Yes2835.4¢0¢$0−$10.00$0
Will a new MAI model be released by April 30, 2026?No2775.2¢0¢$0−$20$0
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in May?No2442¢0¢$0−$10.00−$0.29
Will Iran target Kuwait by September 15, 2026?No2147¢0¢$0−$10.00$0
Another Frontier Math Problem Solved by September 30, 2026?No2147¢0¢$0−$10.00−$0.21
Will Trump say "Polling" this week?No1759¢0¢$0−$10.00−$0.16
Will 290 to 319 tornadoes occur in the United States in April 2026?No1486.2¢0¢$0−$12$0
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?Yes1376.7¢0¢$0−$10.00−$0.09
Will the Senate vote on the CLARITY Act before the August recess?Yes1241¢0¢$0−$5.00−$0.12
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on August 7?No1242¢0¢$0−$5.00−$0.12
Will Rodri join Barcelona?No1010.1¢0¢$0−$1.00−$0.04
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 8?No813¢0¢$0−$1.00−$0.04
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 8?No813¢0¢$0−$1.00−$0.06
FDA approves Camurus' Oclaiz?Yes680¢0¢$0−$5.00−$0.04
Will the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?Yes519¢0¢$0−$1.00−$0.03
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?Yes541¢0¢$0−$2.00$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoWill JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.3M and 7.4M in September?87¢6$5.0083%76Sharp
BUY NoWill JOLTS Job Openings be below 6.8M in September?71¢14$1083%76Sharp
BUY NoWill JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.2M and 7.3M in September?86¢12$1083%76Sharp
BUY NoWill JOLTS Job Openings be at least 7.4M in September?69.3¢29$2083%76Sharp
BUY NoWill "Whalefall" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 10m?69¢14$1083%76Sharp
BUY NoWill UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 43.0 and 45.9 in October?50¢10$5.0083%76Sharp
BUY NoWill UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 43.0 and 45.9 in October?50¢10$5.0083%76Sharp
BUY NoWill Claude go down 11-13 times in October?78¢13$1083%76Sharp
BUY NoChatGPT Full Outage by October 31?73¢14$1083%76Sharp
BUY NoChatGPT Full Outage by October 31?73¢14$1083%76Sharp
BUY NoWill GitHub's longest critical incident in October 2026 be at least 12 hours?88¢114$10083%76Sharp
BUY NoWill GitHub's longest critical incident in October 2026 be at least 12 hours?87.9¢114$10083%76Sharp
BUY NoWill "Street Fighter" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 25m?28.2¢106$3083%76Sharp
BUY NoWill the #1 global Netflix movie have between 20 and 24 million views this week?7¢14$1.0083%76Sharp
BUY NoWill "You Can See Everything" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 7m?39.8¢126$5083%76Sharp
BUY NoWill "Whalefall" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m?45.1¢111$5083%76Sharp
BUY NoMilitary action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31?42¢12$5.0083%76Sharp
BUY NoWill Ledger announce compensation or reimbursement for affected users by October 16?87¢115$10083%76Sharp
BUY NoWill the EU lift its ban on Russian diesel imports by December 31, 2026?78¢128$10083%76Sharp
BUY NoWill the EU lift its ban on Russian diesel imports by October 31, 2026?86.4¢347$30083%76Sharp