sharpside
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Traders/Rank #1,744

Outsmarter

0x1b6…a55b
SharpPnL 50k+PnL 10k+WR 80+WR 70+WR 60+PoliticsOther
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$74.6kvol $852k
PnL 30d+$1,088gains $1,846 · losses $110
PnL 7d+$7,261win rate 7d 100.0%
Win rate82.4%adj 78.1% · 30d 88.9%
Open value$97.7kcash n/a
Positions68 / 200open / all-time
Max drawdown−7.9%of equity peak
Account age9molast trade 21h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$78.8kbelow peak −$700Oct 9

SharpScore inputs

84/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale70
Adjusted win rateraw 82.4% · shrunk toward 50%95
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable77
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d97
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity92

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31? · Yesclosed+$48.2kWill Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by July 31, 2026? · Yesclosed+$5,287Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? · Yesclosed+$3,873Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? · Yesclosed+$3,665US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? · Yesclosed+$2,690

Worst markets

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? · Yesopen−$1,012Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31? · Noclosed−$863Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026? · Yesopen−$542Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026? · Noopen−$496Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026? · Yesopen−$410

Open positions · 68

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Trump out as President before 2027?No10,00092¢95.5¢$9,545+$345$0
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?No7,82490.6¢97.2¢$7,605+$518$0
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?No6,80090.9¢97.8¢$6,647+$463+$70
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?No6,30081.9¢93.5¢$5,890+$732$0
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?No5,54188.9¢96.7¢$5,358+$429$0
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?No5,00078¢95.9¢$4,795+$895+$118
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Yes5,00083¢84.5¢$4,225+$75$0
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Yes4,80683.2¢79.5¢$3,821−$179$0
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?No4,02190.2¢94¢$3,780+$152$0
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?No3,49689.2¢95.5¢$3,338+$220$0
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?No3,26690.7¢95.8¢$3,127+$164$0
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?No4,00076.7¢77.5¢$3,100+$31−$90
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?No3,58263¢85.5¢$3,062+$806+$5.14
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No3,17393.6¢90.5¢$2,872−$97$0
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?No2,97479.8¢92¢$2,736+$361+$96
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes3,00280.6¢90.5¢$2,716+$296$0
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?Yes3,81366.1¢63.5¢$2,421−$99$0
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?No2,00087¢90.5¢$1,810+$70$0
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes58.8k2.4¢2.8¢$1,617+$185$0
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?No1,57689.7¢95.5¢$1,505+$91$0
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?No1,50085.5¢98.5¢$1,478+$196$0
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?Yes2,91668.6¢50¢$1,458−$542$0
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes3,05050.4¢43.6¢$1,328−$209$0
Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026?No1,35479.6¢94.9¢$1,284+$207$0
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes2,00065¢62.5¢$1,250−$50$0
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?Yes1,05987.1¢95.5¢$1,011+$88$0
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes6,04921.2¢16.5¢$995−$287−$91
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No1,00094¢98¢$980+$40$0
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?No1,00092.9¢96.4¢$964+$35$0
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?No1,00093¢93.5¢$935+$5.00$0
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No1,00088¢83.5¢$835−$45$0
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? No59589¢95.7¢$569+$40+$111
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?Yes2,04145.6¢25.5¢$520−$410$0
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?Yes75965.9¢67¢$508+$8.30$0
Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?No1,42070.4¢35.5¢$504−$496$0
Will Ukraine sign an EU accession treaty by December 31, 2027?No50090.6¢93.5¢$468+$15+$9.03
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?No50092¢84.5¢$423−$37$0
Will any aircraft land or take off at Kyiv Boryspil Airport by October 31?No41481.1¢95.8¢$397+$61$0
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by October 31?No40095.8¢98.5¢$394+$11$0
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?No36794.9¢95.9¢$352+$3.72$0
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?No30080¢81¢$243+$3.00$0
Will Trump meet with Aleksandr Lukashenko in 2026?No24572¢87.5¢$215+$38$0
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No20089.5¢99.4¢$199+$20$0
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by December 31?No13586.9¢93.5¢$126+$8.87$0
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?No48641.1¢18¢$88−$112$0
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes2,6323.8¢3.2¢$83−$17$0
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?No1,25024¢4.5¢$56−$244$0
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by December 31?No5385.7¢96.5¢$51+$5.73$0
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes7,6921.3¢0.3¢$19−$81$0
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes2,06948.9¢0¢$0−$1,012$0
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 24, 2026?Yes1,0000.9¢0¢$0−$9.00$0
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?No90433.2¢0¢$0−$300$0
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?No82824.2¢0¢$0−$200$0
Starmer out by June 24, 2026?No66130.2¢0¢$0−$200−$5.58
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?Yes6139.2¢0¢$0−$56−$70
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?No58817¢0¢$0−$100−$3.32
Starmer out by June 26, 2026?No53118.8¢0¢$0−$100−$3.25
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?No50060¢0¢$0−$300−$4.80
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026?No50028¢0¢$0−$140−$0.46
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?No49381.1¢0¢$0−$400$0
Starmer out by June 25, 2026?No41724¢0¢$0−$100−$3.04
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026?No32031.3¢0¢$0−$100$0
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?No28110.8¢0¢$0−$30$0
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?No24270¢0¢$0−$169$0
Will Russia enter Stinky by July 31?Yes20031.5¢0¢$0−$63$0
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?No20041¢0¢$0−$82−$1.88
Will Stripe have the third highest private market valuation on July 31?Yes12083.2¢0¢$0−$100−$0.67
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?Yes7114¢0¢$0−$10−$171

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY YesRussia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?63.3¢789$50082%84Sharp
BUY YesWill Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?80¢625$50082%84Sharp
BUY YesWill Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?65.9¢759$50082%84Sharp
BUY YesWill the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?65¢2,000$1,30082%84Sharp
BUY YesWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?83¢5,000$4,15082%84Sharp
BUY YesWill Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?82¢1,220$1,00082%84Sharp
BUY YesWill Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?82¢1,220$1,00082%84Sharp
BUY NoWill Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?86¢36$3182%84Sharp
BUY NoFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?93¢1,000$93082%84Sharp
BUY NoWill the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?71¢704$50082%84Sharp
BUY NoFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?80¢3,000$2,40082%84Sharp
BUY NoFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?79.9¢1,300$1,03882%84Sharp
BUY NoFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?85.3¢1,125$96082%84Sharp
BUY NoFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 202694¢621$58382%84Sharp
BUY YesWill Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?93¢538$50082%84Sharp
BUY YesRussia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?71.4¢701$50082%84Sharp
BUY YesRussia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?66.1¢756$50082%84Sharp
BUY YesRussia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?48¢1,041$50082%84Sharp
SELL NoRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?85.8¢13.1k$11.2k82%84WhaleSharp
BUY NoWill the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?69.8¢716$50082%84Sharp