sharpside
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Traders/Rank #10,320

DonaldEllison1011

0x1b6…bd0e
PoliticsSportCultureCrypto
Polymarket
PnL all-time−$831vol $347k
PnL 30d−$0.70gains $0 · losses $0
PnL 7d+$0.08win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate56.5%adj 56.2% · 30d 0.0%
Open value$1,512cash n/a
Positions52 / 529open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age11molast trade 5mo ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL−$832below peak −$854Oct 13

SharpScore inputs

26/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 56.5% · shrunk toward 50%41
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable91
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d0
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 52

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by April 30?No93587¢100¢$935+$122$0
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026?No56437¢100¢$564+$355$0
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?Yes569¢100¢$5.00+$1.55+$0.65
Will Tempo launch a token by December 31, 2026?No344¢96¢$2.88+$1.56−$1.58
Will Darko Rajakovic win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?No196.5¢100¢$1.00+$0.04+$0.31
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026?No195¢100¢$1.00+$0.05$0
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026?No189.9¢100¢$1.00+$0.10+$0.10
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?No195.9¢96.4¢$0.96$0−$0.02
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison?Yes257¢32.5¢$0.65−$0.49−$0.17
Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026?Yes536¢5.5¢$0.28−$1.52+$18
Hyperbeat FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes166¢10¢$0.10−$0.56−$3.08
Will Stephen A. Smith announce a Presidential run before 2027?Yes121¢2.1¢$0.02−$0.19−$4.20
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 3 be between 1,700,000 and 1,900,000?Yes82343¢0¢$0−$354$0
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 5 be greater than 2,300,000?No48660¢0¢$0−$292$0
Will Daniel Radcliffe say "Emma" or "Watson" on Hot Ones?No34348¢0¢$0−$165$0
Capitals vs. PenguinsPenguins32784¢0¢$0−$275$0
Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 2.5Over27041¢0¢$0−$111$0
Hapoel Tel Aviv vs. Paris BasketballParis Basketball26768¢0¢$0−$182$0
XRP Up or Down - February 15, 10PM ETDown22550¢0¢$0−$113$0
Solana Up or Down - February 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ETDown19324¢0¢$0−$46$0
Will Albin Kurti be the next Prime Minister of Kosovo?No15183.4¢0¢$0−$126$0
Will SEED Latam win 2025 Uniswap Cup?Yes1466¢0¢$0−$8.76$0
Will Fernando Mendoza win the Heisman Trophy?No14362.5¢0¢$0−$89$0
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in November 2025?No10865¢0¢$0−$70−$1.16
Will Aaron Ford win the 2026 Nevada Governor Democratic primary election?No10396¢0¢$0−$99−$43
Will ENS win 2025 Uniswap Cup?Yes948.3¢0¢$0−$7.80$0
Will Anthony Joshua win in Round 3?Yes7016¢0¢$0−$11$0
Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro by December 31?No6457¢0¢$0−$36$0
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1?No4767¢0¢$0−$31$0
Solana Up or Down - February 11, 8:00PM-12:00AM ETDown2351¢0¢$0−$12$0
Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo win between 12% and 14% of votes in the first round?Yes1918¢0¢$0−$3.42+$12
Will Jeremiyah Love win the Heisman Trophy?Yes152.9¢0¢$0−$0.43+$2.46
Will Texas Tech make the College Football Playoff?No118.8¢0¢$0−$0.97−$1.15
Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to 5–10 years in prison?Yes1023¢0¢$0−$2.30+$4.88
Will Catalin Drula finish third in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election?Yes929¢0¢$0−$2.58+$4.80
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 17?Yes325¢0¢$0−$0.75−$28
Will Fomo launch a token by September 30 2026?Yes325¢0¢$0−$0.75+$0.96
Will Cutting Through Rocks be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?No377.7¢0¢$0−$2.33+$10
US recession in 2025?Yes24.5¢0¢$0−$0.09−$0.44
Will Liam rank #1 among boy names on the SSA’s official list for 2025?No218.4¢0¢$0−$0.37−$43
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win more than 43.5 regular season games in 2025–26?Yes26¢0¢$0−$0.12+$0.51
Will Guillermo del Toro be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes216¢0¢$0−$0.32$0
Will Stephen Curry win the 2025–2026 NBA Clutch Player of the Year?Yes16.3¢0¢$0−$0.06$0
Will Chet Holmgren win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?Yes141¢0¢$0−$0.41+$5.74
Will the U.S. invade Iran in 2025?Yes11.6¢0¢$0−$0.02−$0.37
Will Steve Cohen and Seminole Hard Rock Entertainment receive a license for Metropolitan Park casino in Queens?No131¢0¢$0−$0.31$0
Trump declares another national emergency by December 31?Yes117¢0¢$0−$0.17−$0.65
Will the Phoenix Suns win more than 30.5 regular season games in 2025–26?No151¢0¢$0−$0.51$0
Israel strike on Yemen by November 30?Yes17¢0¢$0−$0.07$0
Will Park Chan-wook be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes111¢0¢$0−$0.11−$7.66
Tom Lee mindshare all time high by March 31?Yes141¢0¢$0−$0.41+$0.95
Abdul-Malik out as leader of Houthis by December 31?Yes16¢0¢$0−$0.06$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
SELL NoWill Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027?79¢551$43557%26
BUY NoWill Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027?78¢551$43057%26
BUY NoWill Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by April 30?87¢935$81357%26
BUY NoWill Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026?37¢564$20957%26
SELL NoDatabricks IPO before 2027?82¢151$12457%26
SELL NoDatabricks IPO before 2027?82¢384$31557%26
SELL NoDatabricks IPO before 2027?78¢406$31757%26
BUY NoDatabricks IPO before 2027?70¢941$65957%26
SELL NoWill Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?53¢324$17257%26
SELL NoWill Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?53¢841$44657%26
SELL NoWill Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30?64¢64$4157%26
BUY NoWill Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30?66¢64$4257%26
SELL NoGRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?37¢117$4357%26
BUY NoWill "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 50m and 54m?59.9¢708$42457%26
BUY NoWill Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?73¢1,165$85057%26
BUY NoGRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?38¢117$4457%26
SELL NoWill "War Machine" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?68¢592$40357%26
SELL YesTesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?10¢221$2257%26
SELL NoWill OG qualify to IEM Cologne Major 2026? 11¢584$6457%26
SELL NoWill "War Machine" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?31¢32$9.9257%26