sharpside
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Traders/Rank #1,154

TheWolfOfPoly

0x1c1…bfe7@TheWolfOfPoly
PnL 100k+PnL 50k+PnL 10k+1y+PoliticsCultureOther
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$173kvol $15.5M
PnL 30d+$21gains $20 · losses $0
PnL 7d+$38win rate 7d 100.0%
Win rate49.3%adj 49.3% · 30d 100.0%
Open value$1,130cash n/a
Positions48 / 2,121open / all-time
Max drawdown−11.2%of equity peak
Account age1.6ylast trade 6mo ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$182kbelow peak −$23.0kOct 8

SharpScore inputs

53/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale75
Adjusted win rateraw 49.3% · shrunk toward 50%23
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d0
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity89

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? · Noclosed+$16.3kWill Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? · Yesclosed+$10.1kWill Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? · Yesclosed+$9,869Epstein blackmail evidence released by March 31? · Noclosed+$9,243Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? · Yesclosed+$8,654

Worst markets

Will Donald Trump not announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve before February 2026? · Yesclosed−$16.7kWill Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? · Noclosed−$7,205Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by January 31, 2026? · Noclosed−$5,940Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? · Noclosed−$5,715Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 15 minutes and 1 hour and 30 minutes? · Noclosed−$4,083

Open positions · 48

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes10.0k0.4¢3¢$300+$260+$163
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026?Yes18363.6¢98.5¢$180+$64$0
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes11.3k0.4¢1.3¢$141+$95+$132
Will Tom Cotton win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes11.0k0.4¢0.5¢$49+$7.62$0
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes23.5k0.4¢0.2¢$35−$59$0
Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes23.5k0.4¢0.2¢$35−$59$0
Will Mitch Landrieu win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes23.5k0.4¢0.2¢$35−$59$0
Will Abigail Spanberger win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes23.5k0.4¢0.2¢$35−$59$0
Will Chris Van Hollen win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes23.5k0.4¢0.2¢$35−$59$0
Will Josh Stein win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes23.5k0.4¢0.2¢$35−$59$0
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes10.0k0.4¢0.4¢$35−$5.17+$104
Will Candace Owens win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes11.0k0.4¢0.3¢$27−$14$0
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?Yes2959.6¢95.5¢$27+$10−$70
Will a new country buy Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?No2050¢100¢$20+$10$0
Will John McEntee win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes11.0k0.4¢0.2¢$16−$25$0
Will John N. Kennedy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes11.0k0.4¢0.2¢$16−$25$0
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes11.0k0.4¢0.2¢$16−$25$0
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes10.0k0.4¢0.2¢$15−$25+$27
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes23.5k0.4¢0.1¢$12−$83$0
Will Adam Schiff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes23.5k0.4¢0.1¢$12−$83$0
Will Alex Padilla win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes23.5k0.4¢0.1¢$12−$83$0
Will Tim Scott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes11.0k0.4¢0.1¢$5.50−$36$0
Will Mike Johnson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes11.0k0.4¢0.1¢$5.50−$36$0
Will Rick Scott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes11.0k0.4¢0.1¢$5.50−$36$0
Will Doug Burgum win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes11.0k0.4¢0.1¢$5.50−$36$0
Will Mark Zuckerberg be richest person on December 31?Yes9410.4¢0.4¢$3.29−$0.67$0
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?Yes5038¢6.5¢$3.25−$16$0
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?Yes2439.7¢11¢$2.59−$6.77+$56
Will Larry Page be richest person on December 31?Yes1,5461.6¢0.2¢$2.32−$22$0
Will Jensen Huang be richest person on December 31?Yes7712¢0.3¢$1.93−$14$0
US defaults on debt by 2027?No187¢98.2¢$0.98+$0.11$0
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day?Yes602¢1.1¢$0.63−$0.59$0
Will Trump resign before 2027?Yes233.9¢2.5¢$0.58−$0.32+$161
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?Yes561¢8.5¢$0.42−$2.63$0
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day?Yes552.1¢0.4¢$0.22−$0.94$0
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?Yes414.1¢0.5¢$0.20−$1.48$0
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day?Yes456.2¢0.5¢$0.20−$2.60$0
Will Bernard Arnault be richest person on December 31?Yes180.5¢0.3¢$0.04−$0.04$0
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Hungary before 2027?Yes3414.6¢0.1¢$0.03−$5.01$0
Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?Yes195.7¢0.2¢$0.03−$1.05$0
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by March 31?Yes1,5635.7¢0¢$0−$90$0
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30?Yes53427¢0¢$0−$144$0
Pierce Brosnan announced as next James Bond?Yes4001.1¢0¢$0−$4.40$0
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?Yes3008¢0¢$0−$24$0
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30?Yes20013¢0¢$0−$26$0
Another Elon baby by June 30?Yes13324¢0¢$0−$32$0
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?Yes2047¢0¢$0−$9.40$0
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?Yes1314.2¢0¢$0−$1.82−$2,020

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
SELL YesWill Apple release a MacBook with cellular connectivity by June 30?2.1¢227$4.7849%53
SELL YesWill Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?0.6¢13.5k$8149%53
SELL YesWill Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?1.1¢3,574$3949%53
SELL YesWill Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?1.5¢6,393$9649%53
SELL YesWill James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?1.9¢4,773$9149%53
SELL YesWill Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?1.6¢2,350$3849%53
SELL YesWill Trump pardon Elon Musk before 2027?4¢60$2.4049%53
SELL YesWill Hamas agree to disarm by March 31?2.9¢200$5.7849%53
SELL NoWill 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?84¢290$24449%53
SELL NoBillionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?64¢458$29349%53
SELL YesWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?2.7¢2,894$7849%53
SELL YesTrump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027?20¢97$1949%53
SELL YesLuigi Mangione out of custody before 2027?6¢100$6.0049%53
SELL YesWill MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?9.3¢200$1949%53
SELL NoWill Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes before 2027?80.7¢10$8.0749%53
SELL NoWill Trump visit China by April 30?98.3¢20$2049%53
SELL YesWill Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?1.2¢9,926$11949%53
SELL YesWill James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?2¢4,227$8549%53
SELL YesWill Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?1.5¢11.0k$16549%53
SELL YesWill Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?0.6¢11.0k$6649%53