PnL all-time+$636vol $25.0k
PnL 30d+$63gains $168 · losses $104
PnL 7d+$5.84win rate 7d 100.0%
Win rate87.5%adj 73.1% · 30d 85.7%
Open value$3,332cash n/a
Positions8 / 40open / all-time
Max drawdown−86.6%of equity peak
Account age1.4ylast trade 3d ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL+$728below peak −$1.59Oct 13
SharpScore inputs
39/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale40
Adjusted win rateraw 87.5% · shrunk toward 50%83
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable53
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d88
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity13
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10? · Yesclosed+$443US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? · Noclosed+$211Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record? · Noclosed+$198Will Jesus Christ return in 2025? · Noclosed+$84Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? · Noclosed+$72
Worst markets
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? · Noclosed−$420Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? · Noclosed−$272Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? · Yesclosed−$271Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? · Yesclosed−$104Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Noopen−$23
Open positions · 8
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | No | 607 | 91¢ | 94.5¢ | $574 | +$21 | $0 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 553 | 94¢ | 94.5¢ | $523 | +$2.77 | $0 | |
| Saudi troops enter Sanaa by October 31, 2026? | No | 522 | 97.5¢ | 97.9¢ | $511 | +$2.09 | $0 | |
| Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | No | 506 | 93¢ | 97.3¢ | $492 | +$22 | $0 | |
| Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31? | No | 412 | 81¢ | 84.5¢ | $348 | +$14 | $0 | |
| Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain? | No | 398 | 82.4¢ | 84.7¢ | $337 | +$8.96 | $0 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | No | 311 | 93¢ | 95.8¢ | $298 | +$8.70 | $0 | |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 302 | 90¢ | 82.3¢ | $249 | −$23 | $0 |
Recent trades
auto-refresh 30s