sharpside
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Traders/Rank #2,270

firegold

0x1d5…634d
WhalePnL 10k+WR 70+WR 60+OtherPoliticsCrypto
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$23.9kvol $2.34M
PnL 30d+$9,609gains $15.8k · losses $14.5k
PnL 7d+$5,889win rate 7d 100.0%
Win rate70.3%adj 69.6% · 30d 75.6%
Open value$103kcash n/a
Positions142 / 669open / all-time
Max drawdown−42.6%of equity peak
Account age8molast trade 1d ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$39.3kbelow peak −$2,361Oct 9

SharpScore inputs

69/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale63
Adjusted win rateraw 70.3% · shrunk toward 50%74
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable94
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d95
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity57

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 100

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?Yes23.0k74.2¢91.5¢$21.1k+$3,977$0
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?Yes16.9k82.9¢90¢$15.2k+$1,194$0
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Yes15.0k60.6¢84.5¢$12.7k+$3,580−$328
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?Yes10.5k72.3¢76.4¢$8,044+$433−$9.79
No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?Yes9,32074.2¢83.5¢$7,782+$867+$19
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Yes7,70481.4¢95.4¢$7,349+$1,082$0
Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?Yes7,32286.9¢88.5¢$6,480+$120$0
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?No6,00085.6¢89.5¢$5,370+$234$0
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision?Yes4,76179.9¢85.5¢$4,071+$265$0
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?No4,09973.9¢92.5¢$3,792+$763+$161
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?No2,00661.7¢86.5¢$1,735+$497−$210
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the December 2026 meeting?Yes2,08059.1¢75.5¢$1,570+$342+$83
Xi Jinping out before 2027?No1,00095.4¢97.4¢$973+$20+$232
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes1,00088.9¢95.6¢$956+$67+$68
Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?Yes1,39554¢65¢$907+$153$0
Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the December 2026 meeting?Yes1,16761.1¢57¢$665−$48−$25
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes5,00013¢12.5¢$625−$25$0
Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?No2,12069.5¢23¢$488−$986−$947
No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?Yes85677.3¢56¢$479−$183$0
No change in Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rates at the October 2026 meeting?Yes1,52478.5¢29.5¢$450−$747−$977
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?Yes62161¢64.5¢$401+$22+$15
UK Recession in 2026?No33587¢93¢$311+$20$0
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?No25091.7¢96.8¢$242+$13+$85
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?Yes1,00067¢22.5¢$225−$445$0
Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026?No21284.9¢96.2¢$204+$24+$155
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026?No20085¢93¢$186+$16$0
Will USD/JPY hit 165 (High) in 2026?No19956¢73¢$145+$34$0
Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September?Yes30046¢47¢$141+$3.00$0
No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the December 2026 meeting?Yes20073¢63.5¢$127−$19$0
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September?Yes27836¢38¢$106+$5.55$0
Will the Bank of Korea hike by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?Yes20045¢46.5¢$93+$3.00$0
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in September?Yes30044¢30.5¢$92−$41$0
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September?Yes20034¢32.5¢$65−$3.00$0
Will the Bank of Korea hold at the October 2026 meeting?Yes6387¢88.5¢$56+$0.94$0
Will annual inflation be 3.5% in September?Yes30011¢12.5¢$37+$4.50$0
Bank of England rate hike in 2026?No70547.4¢1.9¢$13−$321−$331
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the November meeting?Yes20023¢4.6¢$9.20−$37$0
Will annual inflation be 3.7% in September?Yes2131¢29.5¢$6.16−$0.31$0
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?No2,85733.3¢0¢$0−$951−$23
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?No2,38374.4¢0¢$0−$1,772−$11
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?No2,32048.3¢0¢$0−$1,121−$144
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes2,0005.1¢0¢$0−$102$0
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June?Yes1,84150.1¢0¢$0−$923$0
Will annual inflation be 3.7% in June?Yes1,58629¢0¢$0−$460−$41
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June?Yes1,49316.7¢0¢$0−$249+$16
Will the June 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?Yes1,44645.7¢0¢$0−$661−$1.91
Will the August 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?Yes1,41132.4¢0¢$0−$457−$0.65
Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?Yes1,40629.6¢0¢$0−$416$0
Will the September 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?Yes1,40038.2¢0¢$0−$535$0
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.8% in June?Yes1,19654.3¢0¢$0−$650−$1.22
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the April meeting?Yes1,17579.9¢0¢$0−$938$0
Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?Yes1,13535¢0¢$0−$398$0
Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the September meeting?Yes1,11661.2¢0¢$0−$683−$15
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in August?Yes1,07353.7¢0¢$0−$576−$3.41
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.9% in June?Yes1,06135.2¢0¢$0−$373−$0.31
Will Core PCE MoM be 0.3% in August?Yes1,04568.5¢0¢$0−$716−$21
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September?No1,00085.9¢0¢$0−$859$0
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September?No99568¢0¢$0−$677−$3.38
Will annual inflation be 4.3% in May?Yes96639.4¢0¢$0−$380−$0.79
Will Core PCE YoY be 3.2% in August?Yes87628.7¢0¢$0−$252$0
Will Core PCE YoY be 3.3% in August?Yes84925.4¢0¢$0−$216$0
Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in July?Yes81841¢0¢$0−$336$0
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for the cash rate after the May Meeting?Yes81712.5¢0¢$0−$102−$124
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in June?No80079¢0¢$0−$632$0
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 22-28?No80070.8¢0¢$0−$566$0
Will Core PCE YoY be 3.4% in August?Yes80034.5¢0¢$0−$276$0
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,500 in May?No70059¢0¢$0−$413$0
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in May?No69076.6¢0¢$0−$528−$237
Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in April?Yes60433.7¢0¢$0−$203$0
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in May?Yes6009¢0¢$0−$54$0
Will annual inflation be 3.3% in July?Yes56831.1¢0¢$0−$176+$10
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Yes5100.2¢0¢$0−$1.02−$668
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in September?No50038¢0¢$0−$190$0
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?Yes50048¢0¢$0−$240−$3.74
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May?No50069¢0¢$0−$345$0
Will annual inflation be 3.5% in July?Yes50021¢0¢$0−$105−$40
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in May?Yes48618.3¢0¢$0−$89$0
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting?Yes40036¢0¢$0−$144−$0.24
Will the US add between 100k and 150k jobs in June?Yes40040¢0¢$0−$160$0
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in May?Yes40018.7¢0¢$0−$75$0
Will Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?Yes40034.5¢0¢$0−$138$0
Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in September?Yes40035¢0¢$0−$140$0
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 1-7?No40082.6¢0¢$0−$330$0
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in July?Yes40020.7¢0¢$0−$83$0
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the July decision?Yes38853.3¢0¢$0−$207−$130
Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in July?Yes37540¢0¢$0−$150$0
Will Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?Yes35930.7¢0¢$0−$110−$0.61
Will ISM Services PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in August?Yes35123.5¢0¢$0−$82$0
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,550 in May?No35042¢0¢$0−$147$0
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in May?No35019¢0¢$0−$66$0
Will UK annual inflation be between 2.2% and 2.4% in June?Yes32630¢0¢$0−$98−$21
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.00% in September?No32311.4¢0¢$0−$37−$1.64
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in July?Yes32031¢0¢$0−$99−$0.21
Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 55.0 and 55.9 in September?Yes31930.8¢0¢$0−$98$0
Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?Yes30628.7¢0¢$0−$88−$2.59
Will the US add between 100k and 150k jobs in July?Yes30532.3¢0¢$0−$99$0
Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%?Yes30024¢0¢$0−$72$0
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 1-7?No30069.3¢0¢$0−$208$0
Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 55.0 and 55.9 in August?Yes30029¢0¢$0−$87$0
Will monthly inflation stay flat (0.0%) in July?Yes29932¢0¢$0−$96−$34

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
SELL NoBank of England rate hike in 2026?4.7¢1,157$5470%69
BUY YesWill the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?72.1¢2,204$1,58970%69
BUY YesBank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?86.3¢13.2k$11.3k70%69Whale
SELL NoWill inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?92¢13$1270%69
SELL NoXi Jinping out before 2027?97.4¢6,000$5,84470%69
BUY YesWill the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?90¢26$2370%69
SELL YesNo change in Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rates at the October 2026 meeting?33.2¢1,730$57570%69
BUY YesNo change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?82.1¢1,493$1,22670%69
BUY YesWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?82¢214$17570%69
BUY YesNo change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?74¢61$4570%69
BUY YesNo change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?74¢165$12270%69
BUY YesNo change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?74¢188$13970%69
BUY YesNo change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?74.4¢3,218$2,39670%69
BUY NoUK Recession in 2026?91¢5$4.5570%69
BUY YesNo change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?71¢414$29470%69
BUY YesWill the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?66¢302$20070%69
BUY YesWill the Reserve Bank of India increase the policy repo rate by 25 bps at the October meeting?82¢15$1270%69
SELL NoWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in September?95¢1,824$1,73370%69
BUY YesWill the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?63.6¢1,456$92770%69
BUY YesNo change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?73.9¢1,655$1,22470%69