| US recession by end of 2026? | No | 5,990 | 78.3¢ | 93.5¢ | $5,601 | +$909 | +$113 | |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026? | No | 4,734 | 58.6¢ | 95.5¢ | $4,521 | +$1,745 | +$170 | |
| Denmark snap election called by December 31? | No | 3,362 | 92.6¢ | 98.6¢ | $3,314 | +$201 | −$458 | |
| Will CDU win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | Yes | 3,183 | 23.7¢ | 98.6¢ | $3,137 | +$2,381 | +$1.28 | |
| Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? | No | 3,255 | 67.5¢ | 89.5¢ | $2,914 | +$717 | +$12 | |
| Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | No | 3,403 | 72.4¢ | 83.8¢ | $2,850 | +$388 | +$229 | |
| Will Anduril's valuation hit (LOW) $65B by December 31? | No | 2,357 | 84.1¢ | 96.1¢ | $2,263 | +$281 | −$69 | |
| Will Mohammed bin Salman attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | No | 2,158 | 89.3¢ | 97.7¢ | $2,108 | +$181 | −$658 | |
| Greenland snap election called by December 31? | No | 2,099 | 90.5¢ | 94.9¢ | $1,992 | +$93 | −$1,148 | |
| Trump renames ICE to NICE by December 31? | No | 2,006 | 74.6¢ | 94.5¢ | $1,896 | +$398 | +$0.30 | |
| US Government removes public access to another Anthropic AI model in 2026? | No | 1,830 | 84.3¢ | 90¢ | $1,647 | +$104 | $0 | |
| Will Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | No | 1,923 | 79.2¢ | 85.5¢ | $1,644 | +$122 | −$2,084 | |
| Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain? | Yes | 2,008 | 75¢ | 77.5¢ | $1,556 | +$50 | +$13 | |
| Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $150B by December 31? | No | 1,639 | 69.3¢ | 94.4¢ | $1,547 | +$411 | −$200 | |
| Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be at least $2.5T? | Yes | 8,116 | 3.4¢ | 18.5¢ | $1,501 | +$1,226 | +$1,455 | |
| Will Kazem Gharibabadi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | No | 1,508 | 76¢ | 80.5¢ | $1,214 | +$68 | −$214 | |
| Will Mistral Large 4 debut at a score of at least 1490 by June 30, 2027? | No | 1,204 | 82.8¢ | 99.5¢ | $1,198 | +$201 | +$36 | |
| America.gov removed by October 31? | No | 1,213 | 92.4¢ | 97.1¢ | $1,178 | +$57 | −$4.27 | |
| Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.50T and $1.75T? | No | 1,188 | 74.4¢ | 94.6¢ | $1,124 | +$240 | −$253 | |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026? | No | 1,080 | 55.9¢ | 97.5¢ | $1,053 | +$449 | −$31 | |
| Insurrection Act invoked by December 31? | No | 1,105 | 65.3¢ | 89.5¢ | $989 | +$267 | +$21 | |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 6,688 | 22.6¢ | 14.5¢ | $970 | −$540 | −$1,099 | |
| Jumper listed on Upbit within 30 days of TGE? | No | 1,162 | 70.3¢ | 82¢ | $953 | +$136 | −$4.66 | |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? | No | 1,594 | 49¢ | 56.5¢ | $901 | +$120 | +$1.65 | |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? | Yes | 1,453 | 54.7¢ | 62¢ | $901 | +$106 | $0 | |
| Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) be in the next Swedish government? | No | 4,282 | 8.6¢ | 20.1¢ | $861 | +$492 | +$32 | |
| Will Nayib Bukele win the 2027 Salvadoran presidential election? | Yes | 771 | 88.4¢ | 97.1¢ | $748 | +$66 | −$55 | |
| Ostium FDV above $50M one day after launch? | No | 770 | 49.1¢ | 94.2¢ | $725 | +$347 | −$1.26 | |
| Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | No | 3,502 | 16.1¢ | 20.5¢ | $718 | +$155 | +$922 | |
| Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | Yes | 1,597 | 37.3¢ | 43.5¢ | $695 | +$99 | +$51 | |
| Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be between $1.50T and $1.75T at the end of November 2026? | No | 720 | 86.3¢ | 95.9¢ | $690 | +$69 | −$45 | |
| Will US win 55% or more of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? | No | 703 | 90.1¢ | 96.1¢ | $675 | +$41 | −$10 | |
| Will Lambda's valuation hit (LOW) $6B by December 31? | No | 693 | 81.6¢ | 97.1¢ | $673 | +$107 | $0 | |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? | Yes | 700 | 86¢ | 93.5¢ | $655 | +$53 | −$291 | |
| Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? | No | 817 | 69.9¢ | 78¢ | $637 | +$67 | −$72 | |
| Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31? | No | 722 | 77.1¢ | 87.5¢ | $632 | +$75 | −$12 | |
| Will Amazon’s market capitalization be between $2.50T and $3.00T at the end of 2026? | Yes | 1,179 | 38.3¢ | 48¢ | $566 | +$114 | +$24 | |
| Will CATL be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? | No | 675 | 63.3¢ | 82¢ | $553 | +$126 | +$28 | |
| Will Newt Gingrich attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | No | 564 | 85.4¢ | 96.6¢ | $544 | +$63 | +$88 | |
| Will Oman join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026? | No | 527 | 89.5¢ | 98.4¢ | $518 | +$46 | $0 | |
| Total Internet Blackout in Iran by December 31, 2026? | No | 604 | 75.7¢ | 85.5¢ | $516 | +$59 | $0 | |
| Netanyahu drops out before election? | No | 522 | 96.1¢ | 97.6¢ | $510 | +$7.37 | $0 | |
| Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026? | No | 540 | 74.5¢ | 92.5¢ | $499 | +$97 | −$0.06 | |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026? | No | 495 | 78.7¢ | 99.7¢ | $493 | +$104 | +$1.16 | |
| Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? | No | 503 | 90.4¢ | 97.9¢ | $492 | +$37 | $0 | |
| Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026? | No | 727 | 62.7¢ | 67.5¢ | $490 | +$34 | $0 | |
| Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? | No | 692 | 62.4¢ | 70.5¢ | $488 | +$56 | −$5.33 | |
| Frontier AI lab pulls a model over safety concerns in 2026? | No | 527 | 79.6¢ | 87.5¢ | $461 | +$41 | +$160 | |
| Altcoin market cap dip to $150B before 2027? | Yes | 2,172 | 7¢ | 21¢ | $456 | +$304 | $0 | |
| Pacifica FDV above $50M one day after launch? | No | 640 | 60.1¢ | 71¢ | $454 | +$69 | $0 | |
| Will AfD be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government? | No | 465 | 93.3¢ | 96.9¢ | $451 | +$17 | $0 | |
| Will Meta's Watermelon model debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 55% or higher? | No | 475 | 74.4¢ | 95¢ | $451 | +$97 | $0 | |
| Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 9? | No | 465 | 77.4¢ | 96¢ | $447 | +$87 | −$40 | |
| Will Morocco join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026? | No | 462 | 91¢ | 96.2¢ | $444 | +$24 | $0 | |
| No-confidence vote against Spain PM Sanchez by December 31? | No | 455 | 78.4¢ | 97.4¢ | $443 | +$86 | −$112 | |
| Will Taylor Swift's monthly listeners figure hit 122m by October 31? | No | 449 | 77¢ | 97.9¢ | $440 | +$94 | $0 | |
| Will Lighter reach $8 before 2027? | No | 519 | 67.8¢ | 83.2¢ | $432 | +$80 | $0 | |
| Will Amazon be the #3 AI Lab at the end of December 2026 (Style Control On)? | No | 423 | 91¢ | 99.5¢ | $421 | +$36 | $0 | |
| Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $45B by December 31? | No | 432 | 35.9¢ | 97.5¢ | $421 | +$266 | +$150 | |
| Will EUR/USD hit 1.26 (High) in 2026? | No | 438 | 51.3¢ | 94.2¢ | $412 | +$188 | +$12 | |
| Closer Senate Race: Alaska or Texas? | Texas | 529 | 52.3¢ | 77.5¢ | $410 | +$133 | +$4.05 | |
| JD Vance Republican nomination odds leader on October 31? | Yes | 407 | 50.7¢ | 97.1¢ | $395 | +$189 | +$25 | |
| Will Revolut's valuation hit (LOW) $80B by December 31? | No | 411 | 70.6¢ | 95.6¢ | $392 | +$102 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI announce that it has resumed training on October 16, 2026? | No | 403 | 87.5¢ | 96.6¢ | $389 | +$37 | −$383 | |
| Will OpenAI announce that it has resumed training on October 18, 2026? | No | 398 | 85.4¢ | 97.1¢ | $386 | +$46 | −$198 | |
| Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $270B by October 31? | No | 384 | 89.2¢ | 99.4¢ | $382 | +$39 | $0 | |
| Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election be less than 76%? | No | 394 | 84.3¢ | 96.8¢ | $381 | +$49 | −$9.05 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 498 | 50.2¢ | 73.5¢ | $366 | +$116 | +$32 | |
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | Yes | 828 | 30.9¢ | 42.1¢ | $348 | +$92 | $0 | |
| Will the Left Party (V) be in the next Swedish government? | Yes | 1,930 | 15.9¢ | 17.5¢ | $338 | +$31 | +$0.80 | |
| Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $39B by October 31? | No | 354 | 88.3¢ | 93¢ | $329 | +$17 | $0 | |
| Ron DeSantis Republican nomination odds leader on October 31? | No | 330 | 92.4¢ | 99.4¢ | $328 | +$23 | $0 | |
| Will Mistral Large 4 debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027? | No | 337 | 33¢ | 96.1¢ | $324 | +$212 | $0 | |
| James Comey charges dropped by December 31? | No | 502 | 25.6¢ | 63¢ | $317 | +$188 | +$141 | |
| Vance announces he won't run for President in 2028 this year? | No | 332 | 79.7¢ | 94.5¢ | $314 | +$49 | $0 | |
| Will Linke be in the next Berlin state government? | No | 766 | 26.5¢ | 39¢ | $299 | +$95 | +$25 | |
| Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by October 31, 2026? | No | 296 | 83.2¢ | 97.9¢ | $289 | +$43 | $0 | |
| Will Revolut's valuation hit (LOW) $95B by October 31? | No | 295 | 83.5¢ | 98¢ | $289 | +$43 | $0 | |
| Jumper listed on Coinbase within 30 days of TGE? | No | 423 | 51.8¢ | 68¢ | $288 | +$68 | −$17 | |
| Will Iran target Egypt by October 31, 2026? | No | 286 | 87¢ | 98¢ | $280 | +$31 | $0 | |
| Will Grok 5 be released by October 31, 2026? | No | 285 | 91¢ | 98.1¢ | $280 | +$20 | $0 | |
| Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $825B by October 31? | No | 282 | 87.6¢ | 97¢ | $274 | +$26 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 2,077 | 10.1¢ | 12.8¢ | $266 | +$56 | +$134 | |
| Will the next Muse model family be named Muse Fire? | No | 311 | 71.3¢ | 82.5¢ | $256 | +$35 | $0 | |
| Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $177.5B by October 31? | No | 253 | 83.4¢ | 99.5¢ | $252 | +$41 | $0 | |
| Will Manchester City be stripped of a Premier League title by June 30, 2027? | No | 333 | 57.4¢ | 73.5¢ | $245 | +$54 | $0 | |
| Will the Liberals (L) be in the next Swedish government? | No | 298 | 77¢ | 82¢ | $245 | +$15 | −$23 | |
| Will Anduril's valuation hit (LOW) $75B by December 31? | Yes | 2,032 | 6.6¢ | 12¢ | $244 | +$111 | +$248 | |
| Will Trump not endorse a Party in the 2026 Israeli Election? | Yes | 288 | 52.3¢ | 83.5¢ | $240 | +$90 | $0 | |
| Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $15B by December 31? | No | 265 | 80.1¢ | 90.5¢ | $240 | +$27 | +$395 | |
| Will Anduril's valuation hit (LOW) $70B by December 31? | No | 281 | 77.4¢ | 84¢ | $236 | +$19 | −$3.37 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028? | No | 296 | 76¢ | 77.5¢ | $229 | +$4.43 | +$1.52 | |
| Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by October 31, 2026? | No | 331 | 47.7¢ | 68.5¢ | $227 | +$69 | +$44 | |
| Will Kylian Mbappé be the #2 searched person on Google this year? | No | 227 | 92.9¢ | 98.3¢ | $223 | +$12 | $0 | |
| Will Lambda's valuation hit (LOW) $7B by December 31? | No | 255 | 31.6¢ | 87¢ | $222 | +$141 | +$88 | |
| Microsoft matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31? | No | 284 | 73.4¢ | 78¢ | $221 | +$13 | −$68 | |
| Will the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) win the second most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election? | Yes | 1,312 | 9.6¢ | 16.8¢ | $220 | +$95 | +$116 | |
| Will the National Action Party (PAN) win the second most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election? | No | 930 | 27.2¢ | 23.5¢ | $219 | −$34 | +$595 | |
| Will Stefan Evers be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin? | Yes | 980 | 18¢ | 22¢ | $216 | +$39 | +$91 | |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $1.1T by October 31? | No | 215 | 86.7¢ | 98.5¢ | $212 | +$25 | $0 | |
