sharpside
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Traders/Rank #1,071

archaic

0x1f0…f7aa@archaic_on_Poly
SharpWhalePnL 100k+PnL 50k+PnL 10k+WR 80+WR 70+WR 60+1y+Politics
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$191kvol $28.8M
PnL 30d+$2,961gains $19.0k · losses $3,473
PnL 7d+$131win rate 7d 93.1%
Win rate91.6%adj 90.0% · 30d 94.1%
Open value$165kcash n/a
Positions221 / 3,005open / all-time
Max drawdown−3.5%of equity peak
Account age4.4ylast trade 3h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$194kbelow peak −$378Oct 9

SharpScore inputs

88/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale75
Adjusted win rateraw 91.6% · shrunk toward 50%100
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity97

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 100

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?Yes14.9k87.5¢88.5¢$13.2k+$157$0
Will GameStop acquire eBay?No10.6k90¢94.5¢$10.0k+$476+$610
Modi out by December 31, 2026?No10.2k91.6¢92.5¢$9,420+$88+$324
Will Mark Brown be the next Prime Minister of the Cook Islands following the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections?Yes7,62795.2¢97.7¢$7,447+$187+$310
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Yes7,68195.6¢96¢$7,374+$33+$1.42
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?No5,72695.7¢96.6¢$5,528+$47+$8.23
Yoon out of custody before 2027?No5,55789.1¢95¢$5,277+$324+$36
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 31, 2026?No5,45190.2¢95.5¢$5,206+$287+$326
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31?No5,17991.7¢96.3¢$4,988+$236+$163
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?No5,31589.5¢87.5¢$4,651−$108+$136
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026?No3,91088.9¢95¢$3,714+$238+$125
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes3,99692¢90.5¢$3,617−$60+$136
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026?No3,20888¢95¢$3,048+$223+$47
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?No2,92598.5¢98.4¢$2,878−$2.86+$1,811
Will Nasir Idris win the 2027 Kebbi State gubernatorial election?Yes2,83687.5¢88.5¢$2,510+$27−$8.10
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes2,92484.4¢85.8¢$2,507+$40+$242
Will Douglas Ruas win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?Yes2,40198.6¢99.2¢$2,380+$13+$82
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?No2,54585.3¢91.5¢$2,329+$157+$497
Will Frank Chikane be the next mayor of Johannesburg?No2,57986.9¢88.9¢$2,294+$54$0
Will Esthela Damián Peralta win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?No2,18989¢98.3¢$2,150+$203+$45
Will the African Democratic Congress (ADC) win the most seats in the 2027 Nigerian House of Representatives election?No2,27292.5¢92¢$2,090−$12$0
Tshisekedi out as President of the DRC by December 31, 2026?No2,03291.4¢97.3¢$1,977+$118+$61
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseNo1,99891.5¢91.5¢$1,828$0+$49
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No1,81991.5¢90.5¢$1,646−$19+$77
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?No1,57193.3¢92.9¢$1,459−$5.95+$7.78
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?No1,84077.9¢78.5¢$1,444+$11+$664
Will S.O.S. Romania (SOS) be included in the next Romanian government?No1,44496.8¢98.1¢$1,416+$18$0
Will Otu Bassey Edet win the 2027 Cross River State gubernatorial election?Yes1,77883.6¢79¢$1,405−$82$0
Andrew Tate released from custody by December 31, 2026?No1,49391.6¢92.5¢$1,381+$13+$0.77
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?No2,17266.1¢58.8¢$1,276−$161+$34
Will Solomon Olamilekan Adeola win the 2027 Ogun State gubernatorial election?Yes1,62876.9¢75.5¢$1,229−$23+$24
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?No1,30394¢93.5¢$1,218−$6.33+$163
Will Macky Sall be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?No1,25493.8¢96.4¢$1,209+$33+$12
UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026?No1,26193.7¢94¢$1,185+$3.70+$77
Will José Maria Neves win the Cape Verde presidential election?Yes1,46970.4¢77.5¢$1,139+$105+$19
Will Namadi Umar Alhaji win the 2027 Jigawa State gubernatorial election?Yes1,28286.5¢88.5¢$1,134+$26+$11
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?No1,16491.5¢92.5¢$1,077+$12+$148
Will the National Regeneration Movement (Morena) win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election?Yes1,23989.6¢85.7¢$1,061−$49+$80
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No1,18288.7¢86.9¢$1,026−$22+$20
Will Sally Doyle win the next Huon Valley mayoral election?No1,03598.9¢98.9¢$1,024+$0.26+$39
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?No1,03192.5¢92.9¢$958+$4.62+$0.03
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No97298.2¢98¢$952−$1.53+$41
Will Zandile Hlophe-Mkhwanazi be the next mayor of eThekwini?No1,09089.4¢86.8¢$946−$29$0
Will Peter Freshney win the next Latrobe mayoral election?No93294.8¢99.4¢$926+$43+$146
Will Roy Charlie Arbaiza Corcuera win the next Trujillo mayoral elections?Yes91097.1¢99.4¢$904+$21$0
Will Oman join the Abraham Accords before 2027?No91994.8¢95.2¢$874+$3.58+$37
Will Masao Uchibori win the 2026 Fukushima gubernatorial election?Yes87396¢98¢$856+$18+$2.25
Will Mutfwang Caleb Manasseh win the 2027 Plateau State gubernatorial election?Yes1,04078.4¢80¢$832+$17+$4.51
Will Abubakar Malami win the 2027 Kebbi State gubernatorial election?No89789.7¢90¢$807+$2.69$0
Will Dauda Lawal win the 2027 Zamfara State gubernatorial election?Yes91179.3¢87¢$793+$70+$6.37
Will Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?No99077.6¢75.3¢$745−$23+$593
Imran Khan released from prison by December 31, 2026?No75184.5¢90.5¢$680+$45+$48
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027?No70293.2¢96.3¢$676+$22+$24
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Mato Grosso do Sul?Yes65396.8¢98.6¢$644+$12$0
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026?No66491.3¢95.5¢$634+$28+$159
Will Nuevas Ideas (NI) win the most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?Yes64892.7¢96.6¢$626+$25$0
Will Eno Umo Bassey win the 2027 Akwa Ibom State gubernatorial election?Yes87463.5¢70.5¢$616+$61+$19
Will Ülle Madise be the next President of Estonia?Yes61996.4¢99.1¢$613+$16$0
Will Oborevwori Sheriff Francis Orohwedor win the 2027 Delta State gubernatorial election?Yes75083.8¢79¢$593−$36+$2.19
Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Yes64789.5¢91¢$588+$9.48+$8.27
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Yes60593¢94.9¢$574+$11+$30
Will Mbah Peter Ndubuisi win the 2027 Enugu State gubernatorial election?Yes74676.8¢75.5¢$563−$9.49−$0.31
Will Alex Nuttall win the 2026 Barrie mayoral election?Yes60988.9¢92¢$561+$19+$3.25
Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?No55489.7¢94.6¢$524+$27+$119
Will Janine Lélis win the Cape Verde presidential election?No52294.2¢98.8¢$516+$24+$22
Will Jaroslav Baška win the 2026 Trenčín Region gubernatorial election?Yes53891.9¢95.7¢$514+$20+$9.37
Will Mario Colberth Reyna Rodríguez win the next Trujillo mayoral elections?No49398¢99.8¢$492+$8.84+$7.49
Will Albert Aníbal Arenas Yabar win the next Cusco mayoral elections?Yes48599¢96.6¢$468−$12$0
Will María Teresa Guerra Ochoa win the 2027 Sinaloa Governor Election?No45792.9¢99.5¢$454+$30$0
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by June 30, 2027?No48382.6¢92.5¢$447+$48+$10
Will Mat Siscoe win the 2026 St. Catharines mayoral election?Yes45389.5¢94.5¢$429+$23+$0.05
Will Pakistan join the Abraham Accords before 2027?No43393.3¢97.1¢$420+$17$0
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the next Kolkata municipal election?Yes48191.9¢87¢$418−$24$0
Will Ntombi Mekgwe be the next mayor of Ekurhuleni?No45992.3¢88.7¢$407−$17$0
Will Ahmed Galadima win the 2027 Adamawa State gubernatorial election?Yes67147.6¢60.5¢$406+$87+$55
Will Pakistan recognize Israel by December 31?No40893.2¢95.5¢$389+$9.29+$16
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?No39694.5¢96.1¢$381+$6.19+$92
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?No38195.4¢95.4¢$364−$0.11$0
Will Mohammed Umaru Bago win the 2027 Niger State gubernatorial election?Yes48974.6¢72¢$352−$13+$0.17
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?Yes45391¢73.5¢$333−$79+$0.94
Will Tunisia recognize Israel by December 31?No33993.4¢94.5¢$320+$3.88+$18
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?No32695.2¢97.5¢$318+$7.36$0
Will Walther Guerrero Silva win the next Piura mayoral elections?No32099¢98.7¢$316−$0.94$0
Will the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) be included in the next Romanian government?No32581.4¢93.3¢$304+$39+$48
Will Anton Danko win the 2026 Poprad mayoral election?Yes36081.3¢84¢$302+$9.65−$0.24
Will José Luis Morey Requejo win the next Piura mayoral elections?No29899.1¢99.8¢$297+$2.08$0
Will Geoffrey Uchechukwu Nnaji win the 2027 Enugu State gubernatorial election?No29996¢99.2¢$297+$9.30+$0.43
Will Eugenio Segura Vázquez win the 2027 Quintana Roo Governor Election?Yes36771.5¢80.5¢$295+$33$0
Will the All Progressives Congress (APC) win the most seats in the 2027 Nigerian House of Representatives election?Yes38374.9¢76.5¢$293+$5.99$0
Will Ahmed Aliyu win the 2027 Sokoto State gubernatorial election?Yes47881.8¢60.5¢$289−$102+$1.89
Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?No30292.3¢95¢$286+$8.06+$17
Will Biodun Ogundipe win the 2027 Ogun State gubernatorial election?No29295.3¢97¢$283+$4.98+$1.26
Will Marco Rubio be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?No38569.3¢70.5¢$272+$4.74−$6.38
Will Péricles Tavares win the Cape Verde presidential election?No27496.6¢98.6¢$270+$5.22+$0.16
Will Mama Kandeh win the 2026 Gambian presidential election?No26793.8¢99.3¢$265+$15$0
Will Sharafadeen Abiodun Alli win the 2027 Oyo State gubernatorial election?Yes70242.5¢35.5¢$249−$49$0
Will Anna Jähnke be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Skåne?No24996.9¢98.3¢$244+$3.26+$14
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes3,00014.8¢8.1¢$242−$203+$0.02
Will Abimbola Adekanmbi win the 2027 Oyo State gubernatorial election?Yes41212.2¢58¢$239+$189+$5.47
Will Milena Quiroga Romero win the 2027 Baja California Sur Governor Election?No25089.7¢94.4¢$236+$12+$2.14

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY YesWill Douglas Ruas win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?98.9¢1,914$1,89392%88Sharp
BUY YesWill Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?23.9¢555$13392%88Sharp
BUY YesWill Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?3.8¢201$7.6492%88Sharp
BUY YesWill Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?3.6¢359$1392%88Sharp
BUY YesWill Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?8¢403$3292%88Sharp
BUY YesWill there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?88¢13.1k$11.5k92%88WhaleSharp
BUY NoLee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?95.4¢381$36492%88Sharp
BUY NoLee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?94¢10$9.3292%88Sharp
BUY NoWill Russia invade another country in 2026?94¢1,298$1,22092%88Sharp
BUY NoWill Jordan join the Abraham Accords before 2027?92.8¢53$4992%88Sharp
BUY YesWill Jean-Luc Mélenchon be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?94.4¢431$40892%88Sharp
BUY NoWill Umaro Sissoco Embaló win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?93.1¢64$6092%88Sharp
BUY NoWill Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?91.7¢218$19992%88Sharp
BUY YesWill Justina Pula be the next President of Kosovo?99.4¢11.1k$11.0k92%88WhaleSharp
BUY YesWill Justina Pula be the next President of Kosovo?99.1¢3,208$3,18092%88Sharp
BUY YesWill Justina Pula be the next President of Kosovo?99¢2,691$2,66392%88Sharp
BUY YesWill Justina Pula be the next President of Kosovo?97.7¢2,022$1,97492%88Sharp
BUY NoWill Bekim Sejdiu be the next President of Kosovo?96.9¢238$23092%88Sharp
SELL YesWill Bekim Sejdiu be the next President of Kosovo?5.7¢25$1.4292%88Sharp
BUY NoWill Bekim Sejdiu be the next President of Kosovo?93¢520$48492%88Sharp