sharpside
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Traders/Rank #2,602

lpgb

0x1f5…50fa
<30d oldPoliticsOtherCultureWeather
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$9,616vol $333k
PnL 30d−$3,509gains $26.4k · losses $16.4k
PnL 7d+$12.4kwin rate 7d 33.8%
Win rate32.4%adj 33.1% · 30d 32.4%
Open value$576cash n/a
Positions93 / 593open / all-time
Max drawdown−1.3%of equity peak
Account age28dlast trade 16m ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$21.7kbelow peak $0Oct 8

SharpScore inputs

61/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale57
Adjusted win rateraw 32.4% · shrunk toward 50%0
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable92
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity99

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 93

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?Yes25510¢28.2¢$72+$46$0
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day?No7486.7¢87.2¢$65+$0.33+$19
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?No7884¢80.5¢$63−$2.73+$31
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?No7876¢75.5¢$59−$0.39+$73
Will the Democratic Party win the MT-01 House seat?No7275¢66.5¢$48−$6.13+$0.48
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Yes7111.1¢66.5¢$47+$39+$2.29
Will Artificial Inu be the first to hit a $1B FDV?Yes47220¢8¢$38−$57−$0.11
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?Yes14720¢22.5¢$33+$3.67+$2.69
Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?No9127.2¢26.4¢$24−$0.77+$1,859
Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?Yes54810¢2.6¢$14−$41$0
Will ANSEM be the first to hit a $1B FDV?Yes85620¢1.5¢$12−$159−$166
No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?Yes2191¢53.5¢$11−$7.88$0
Will "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 24m and 27m?Yes10516.7¢8.5¢$8.93−$8.57−$6.66
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?Yes29420¢2.9¢$8.37−$50−$852
Will USD be between 3.0M and 3.5M Iranian rials on December 31?No1071¢78.5¢$7.85+$0.75+$3.77
Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Yes7111.1¢9.5¢$6.74−$1.14$0
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?Yes25510¢2.5¢$6.25−$19−$25
Will "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 21m and 24m?Yes10516.7¢4.4¢$4.57−$13−$9.45
Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day?Yes17710¢2.3¢$4.07−$14$0
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?Yes50420¢0.8¢$3.78−$97−$76
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on October 10?No576¢74.5¢$3.60−$0.07$0
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win 2026-27 Nations League Group B4?No485.2¢79.5¢$3.21−$0.23−$9.57
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?Yes29420¢1.1¢$3.08−$56−$892
Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in August 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%?No557¢56¢$2.58−$0.05$0
Will "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 33m?No371.7¢70¢$2.35−$0.06+$27
Will USD be between 3.0M and 3.5M Iranian rials on December 31?Yes1016.7¢21.5¢$2.15+$0.48+$4.64
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes1,1843.8¢0.2¢$1.78−$44$0
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes1,1843.8¢0.2¢$1.78−$44$0
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes1,1843.8¢0.2¢$1.78−$44$0
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes1,1843.8¢0.2¢$1.78−$44$0
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Yes7911.1¢2.1¢$1.66−$7.13−$3.39
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes1,1843.8¢0.1¢$1.18−$44$0
Will the lowest Baton Rouge river level be 6.00 ft or more by November 30?No257¢58.8¢$1.18+$0.04+$0.76
Will "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 21m?Yes10516.7¢1.1¢$1.10−$16−$10
Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Yes7111.1¢1.5¢$1.06−$6.82−$10
Will Republicans win the Michigan Senate seat, and Democrats win Minnesota and New Hampshire?Yes2011.1¢5.2¢$1.04−$1.18$0
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?Yes6420¢1.5¢$0.93−$12−$110
Will NetNet be the first to hit a $1B FDV?Yes1,32920¢0.1¢$0.66−$265−$78
Will Tim O'Hare win the 2026 Tarrant County Judge election?No153¢53.5¢$0.54+$0.01+$2.70
Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in Azerbaijan?Yes993.4¢0.5¢$0.49−$2.92$0
Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in China?Yes993.4¢0.5¢$0.45−$2.97$0
Will the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the December interest rate announcement?Yes2420¢1.4¢$0.33−$4.41$0
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-26 House seat?Yes215.2¢1.6¢$0.33−$0.77$0
Will the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by 50+ bps at the December interest rate announcement?Yes2420¢1.2¢$0.28−$4.46$0
Will UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 2% and 3%?Yes2414.3¢1.2¢$0.28−$3.15$0
Will Pavel Bosák be the next Mayor of Plzeň?Yes452.9¢0.6¢$0.27−$1.05$0
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon be between 1,800,000 and 1,900,000?Yes3011.1¢0.9¢$0.26−$3.08$0
Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in Slovakia?Yes993.4¢0.3¢$0.25−$3.17$0
Will UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be below 0%?Yes2414.3¢1¢$0.23−$3.20$0
Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in Ukraine?Yes993.4¢0.2¢$0.20−$3.22$0
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 50+ bps at the December interest rate announcement?Yes2420¢0.8¢$0.19−$4.55$0
Will a team from LCP (Asia-Pacific) win LoL Worlds 2026?Yes7314.3¢0.3¢$0.18−$10$0
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon be less than 1,500,000?Yes3011.1¢0.5¢$0.17−$3.17$0
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon be between 1,500,000 and 1,600,000?Yes3011.1¢0.5¢$0.17−$3.17$0
Will Project Hail Mary be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?Yes412.2¢0.4¢$0.16−$0.73$0
Will Miloš Vučević be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?Yes1611.9¢0.1¢$0.16−$2.88$0
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon be between 1,700,000 and 1,800,000?Yes3011.1¢0.5¢$0.15−$3.18$0
Will Broadcom be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?Yes2924¢0.1¢$0.15−$12$0
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon be between 1,600,000 and 1,700,000?Yes3011.1¢0.5¢$0.14−$3.20$0
Will a team from CBLOL (Brazil) win LoL Worlds 2026?Yes7314.3¢0.2¢$0.11−$10$0
Will The Devil Wears Prada 2 be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?Yes412.2¢0.3¢$0.10−$0.79$0
Will Supergirl be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?Yes412.2¢0.3¢$0.10−$0.79$0
Will Wuthering Heights be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?Yes412.2¢0.3¢$0.10−$0.79$0
Will Michael be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?Yes412.2¢0.3¢$0.10−$0.79$0
Will Scream 7 be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?Yes412.2¢0.3¢$0.10−$0.79$0
Will Minions & Monsters be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?Yes412.2¢0.3¢$0.10−$0.79$0
Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 20% and 24.9%?Yes1814.3¢0.4¢$0.07−$2.53$0
Will Július Liška be the next Mayor of Plzeň?Yes452.9¢0.2¢$0.07−$1.25$0
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?Yes412.2¢0.2¢$0.06−$0.83$0
Will Moana be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?Yes412.2¢0.2¢$0.06−$0.83$0
Will Wicked: For Good be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?Yes412.2¢0.2¢$0.06−$0.83$0
Will Jumanji 3 be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?Yes412.2¢0.2¢$0.06−$0.83$0
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?Yes412.2¢0.2¢$0.06−$0.83$0
Will Dune: Messiah be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?Yes412.2¢0.2¢$0.06−$0.83$0
Will UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 3% and 4%?Yes2414.3¢0.3¢$0.06−$3.37$0
Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be at least 45%?Yes1814.3¢0.3¢$0.05−$2.55$0
Will UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be 5% or higher?Yes2414.3¢0.2¢$0.05−$3.38$0
Will Argentina’s annual inflation be less than 20%?Yes1814.3¢0.2¢$0.04−$2.57$0
Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 40% and 44.9%?Yes1814.3¢0.2¢$0.03−$2.58$0
Will the Democratic Party win the OK-01 House seat?Yes254¢0.1¢$0.03−$0.97$0
Will the Republican Party win the NY-06 House seat?Yes244.2¢0.1¢$0.02−$0.98$0
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the next leader out before 2027?Yes34.5¢0.7¢$0.02−$0.12−$0.47
Will Michal Vozobule be the next Mayor of Plzeň?Yes392.9¢0.1¢$0.02−$1.13−$0.17
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 25°C or higher on October 8?Yes239.1¢0.1¢$0.01−$2.08$0
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on October 8?Yes239.1¢0.1¢$0.01−$2.08$0
Will "Drake & Don Toliver - Solar Eclipse" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of October 17?Yes206.7¢0.1¢$0.01−$1.32$0
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of October 17?Yes206.7¢0.1¢$0.01−$1.32$0
Will "Be Her - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of October 17?Yes206.7¢0.1¢$0.01−$1.32$0
Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of October 17?Yes206.7¢0.1¢$0.01−$1.32$0
Will Saudi Aramco be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31?Yes203.4¢0.1¢$0.01−$0.68$0
Will SpaceX be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31?Yes203.4¢0.1¢$0.01−$0.68$0
Will Broadcom be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31?Yes103.4¢0.1¢$0.01−$0.34−$0.33
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C or below on October 8?Yes99.1¢0.1¢$0−$0.86−$1.22

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoWill Jynxzi, Ron, and Los have between 180 and 209 Minecraft deaths during the marathon?94.4¢21$2032%61
BUY NoWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 12 and October 18, 2026?95.6¢34$3332%61
BUY NoWill "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 30m and 33m?69¢50$3532%61
BUY NoWill "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 21m and 24m?96¢50$4832%61
BUY NoWill "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 33m?72¢50$3632%61
BUY NoWill the Democratic Party win the PA-11 House seat?94.9¢21$2032%61
SELL YesWill the Fed Hike–Hike–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?1.2¢5$0.0632%61
BUY NoWill the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?36¢408$14732%61
BUY NoWill the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?77¢150$11632%61
BUY NoWill the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?91¢79$7232%61
SELL NoWill Lithuania win 2026-27 Nations League Group D2?83¢11$9.1732%61
BUY NoWill the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?71¢240$17132%61
BUY NoWill Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?76¢333$25332%61
BUY NoWill Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day?86.7¢329$28532%61
BUY NoWill Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day?96.4¢78$7532%61
SELL NoWill Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from abroad?32¢99$3232%61
SELL NoWill Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from abroad?34¢22$7.4432%61
SELL YesWill "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 24m and 27m?6¢10$0.5932%61
SELL YesWill "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 24m and 27m?6¢39$2.3332%61
SELL YesWill Democrats win the Michigan and Minnesota Senate seats, and Republicans win New Hampshire?21¢20$4.2032%61