sharpside
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Traders/Rank #3,947

0x1f8…7b02

0x1f8…7b02
WeatherOtherSport
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$9,990vol $2.89M
PnL 30d−$72.6kgains $597 · losses $790
PnL 7d−$10.7kwin rate 7d 47.6%
Win rate47.6%adj 48.1% · 30d 47.6%
Open value$2,274cash n/a
Positions151 / 49,919open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age5molast trade 7m ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL−$57.9kbelow peak −$62.2kOct 13

SharpScore inputs

46/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale57
Adjusted win rateraw 47.6% · shrunk toward 50%20
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 100

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?Yes1,11622.8¢27¢$301+$47+$128
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?Yes95616.5¢24.5¢$234+$76+$80
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?Yes99020.9¢21¢$208+$0.74+$97
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on October 12?No11473.2¢100¢$114+$31+$0.56
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on October 13?No11199.6¢99.6¢$110−$0.07−$6.52
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C or higher on October 13?No10798.8¢98.9¢$105+$0.03−$8.55
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on October 13?No10797.8¢98.6¢$105+$0.86−$7.78
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day?Yes99712.9¢9.9¢$98−$30+$94
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?Yes9977.5¢9.5¢$95+$20+$105
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on October 13?No11776.6¢77.5¢$90+$1.02+$7.08
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on October 13?No10783.6¢84.5¢$90+$0.93+$2.95
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on October 13?No10740.7¢37.5¢$40−$3.45+$24
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes551.1¢63.9¢$35+$34+$196
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?No31427.1¢11¢$35−$51+$178
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes1111.1¢29.8¢$33+$32+$90
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in September?No3692.6¢88.5¢$31−$1.45−$7.52
Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day?Yes9973¢2.8¢$28−$1.86+$113
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 32°C on October 13?No2399.9¢100¢$23+$0.01$0
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on October 13?No2399.9¢99.9¢$23−$0.01$0
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on October 13?No2399.9¢97.1¢$23−$0.66$0
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on October 13?No2392¢94.6¢$22+$0.59$0
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on October 13?No2399.1¢94.4¢$22−$1.10$0
Will annual inflation be 3.3% in September?No2199.9¢100¢$21+$0.01−$18
Will annual inflation be 3.1% in September?No2199.9¢100¢$21+$0.01−$19
Will annual inflation be 3.2% in September?No2199.8¢100¢$21+$0.03−$19
Will annual inflation be 2.9% or less in September?No2199.9¢99.9¢$21−$0.01−$19
Will annual inflation be 3.0% in September?No2199.8¢99.9¢$21+$0.01−$19
Will annual inflation be 4.0% or more in September?No2199.7¢99.6¢$21−$0.03−$19
Will annual inflation be 3.4% in September?No2198.8¢99.4¢$21+$0.13−$15
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on October 13?No2357.7¢87¢$20+$6.81$0
Will annual inflation be 3.5% in September?No2192.9¢92.9¢$20−$0.01+$6.90
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on October 13?No2395.5¢72.5¢$17−$5.34$0
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.75T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day?Yes9513.1¢1.8¢$17−$13+$116
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?Yes6062.4¢2.4¢$15+$0.12+$294
Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September?No2158¢59.5¢$13+$0.31+$89
Will annual inflation be 3.7% in September?No2156¢57.5¢$12+$0.31+$62
Will Kathy Hochul win Nassau County in the New York governor race in 2026?No2156.3¢58.5¢$12+$0.45+$42
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on October 13?No2453.3¢50.5¢$12−$0.66$0
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on October 12?No1199.1¢100¢$11+$0.09+$6.09
Will Giuseppe Conte be the next Prime Minister of Italy?No1085¢83¢$8.30−$0.20$0
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?Yes21410¢3.3¢$7.06−$14$0
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Yes816.7¢80.5¢$6.44+$5.11+$19
Will the Democratic Party win the MN-01 House seat?No868¢79¢$6.00+$0.83+$19
Will the Democratic Party win the CO-05 House seat?No863¢74.5¢$5.96+$0.92$0
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on October 14?No599.9¢100¢$5.03$0$0
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on October 14?No599.8¢99.8¢$5.02$0$0
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on October 14?No599.4¢99¢$4.98−$0.02$0
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on October 14?No598.1¢98.4¢$4.95+$0.01$0
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on October 14?No596.3¢97.4¢$4.90+$0.05$0
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on October 14?No591¢89.5¢$4.50−$0.08$0
Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?Yes21410¢2.1¢$4.49−$17$0
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on October 14?No575¢74.5¢$3.75−$0.03$0
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on October 13?Yes665.9¢58¢$3.21−$0.44−$0.50
Will Justin Gaethje be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?No2310.8¢11.7¢$2.65+$0.19+$392
Will Rebeca Grynspan be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?Yes52.1¢49¢$2.45+$2.34$0
Will DK be number 1 on the end of year Global Power Rankings?Yes973.2¢2.5¢$2.42−$0.70$0
Will Ilia Topuria be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?Yes4255.3¢0.5¢$2.34−$20+$12
Will KC be number 1 on the end of year Global Power Rankings?Yes1383.2¢1.6¢$2.14−$2.31$0
Will AI solve 5 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Yes19216.7¢1.1¢$2.11−$30+$66
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on October 14?No538¢36¢$1.81−$0.10$0
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on October 13?Yes611.5¢31.5¢$1.74+$1.11+$1.52
Will Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?Yes52.1¢33.5¢$1.67+$1.57$0
Will IG be number 1 on the end of year Global Power Rankings?Yes1383.2¢1¢$1.31−$3.14$0
Will Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of November 2026?Yes252.9¢5.2¢$1.30+$0.58+$8.98
Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes1151.1¢0.7¢$0.81−$0.49+$301
Will Maria Fernanda Espinosa Garcés be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?Yes52.1¢14.9¢$0.74+$0.64$0
Will MKOI be number 1 on the end of year Global Power Rankings?Yes1383.2¢0.4¢$0.55−$3.90$0
Will Fabian Ruiz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes3641.1¢0.2¢$0.55−$3.54+$378
Will Max Holloway be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?Yes4985.3¢0.1¢$0.50−$26$0
Will Pau Cubarsi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes9721.1¢0.1¢$0.49−$10+$81
Will JDG be number 1 on the end of year Global Power Rankings?Yes1383.2¢0.4¢$0.48−$3.97$0
Will Paddy Pimblett be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?Yes4615.3¢0.1¢$0.46−$24+$14
Will TSW be number 1 on the end of year Global Power Rankings?Yes1383.2¢0.3¢$0.41−$4.04$0
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes7731.1¢0.1¢$0.39−$8.30$0
Will Luis Diaz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes7731.1¢0.1¢$0.39−$8.30+$4.97
Will Vinícius Júnior win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes7731.1¢0.1¢$0.39−$8.30$0
Will Lautaro Martinez win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes7731.1¢0.1¢$0.39−$8.30+$4.83
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes7731.1¢0.1¢$0.39−$8.30$0
Will Declan Rice win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes7451.1¢0.1¢$0.37−$8.00$0
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on October 13?Yes612.6¢6.5¢$0.36−$0.34+$2.18
Will C9 be number 1 on the end of year Global Power Rankings?Yes1383.2¢0.3¢$0.34−$4.11$0
Will Vitinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes6451.1¢0.1¢$0.32−$6.92$0
Will Jude Bellingham win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes6081.1¢0.1¢$0.30−$6.53$0
Will DCG be number 1 on the end of year Global Power Rankings?Yes1383.2¢0.2¢$0.28−$4.18$0
Will TLAW be number 1 on the end of year Global Power Rankings?Yes1383.2¢0.2¢$0.28−$4.18$0
Will Mateusz Gamrot be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?Yes5155.3¢0.1¢$0.26−$27$0
Will Mauricio Ruffy be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?Yes5155.3¢0.1¢$0.26−$27$0
Will Rafael Fiziev be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?Yes5155.3¢0.1¢$0.26−$27$0
Will Dan Hooker be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?Yes4985.3¢0.1¢$0.25−$26$0
Will Renato Moicano be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?Yes4985.3¢0.1¢$0.25−$26$0
Will Benoît Saint Denis be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?Yes4835.3¢0.1¢$0.24−$25$0
Will Charles Oliveira be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?Yes4835.3¢0.1¢$0.24−$25$0
Will TES be number 1 on the end of year Global Power Rankings?Yes1383.2¢0.2¢$0.21−$4.24$0
Will Jacinda Ardern be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?Yes52.1¢3.8¢$0.19+$0.08$0
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after November 2026 meeting?Yes30820¢0.1¢$0.15−$61$0
Will Michelle Bachelet be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?Yes102.1¢1.5¢$0.14−$0.07$0
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping have the best domestic opening week in 2026?Yes2052.8¢0.1¢$0.10−$5.59$0
Will Dune: Messiah have the best domestic opening week in 2026?Yes2052.8¢0.1¢$0.10−$5.59$0
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on October 12?No18121.4¢0.1¢$0.09−$39+$18
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on October 13?Yes63.2¢1.6¢$0.09−$0.09+$1.44

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 22°C on October 15?72¢6$4.4448%46
BUY NoWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on October 14?59¢31$1848%46
BUY NoWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on October 14?59¢9$5.4048%46
BUY NoWill the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on October 14?99.5¢5$4.9848%46
BUY NoWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on October 13?99.9¢13$1348%46
BUY YesWill the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on October 13?12¢5$0.5948%46
BUY YesWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on October 13?89¢10$8.9048%46
BUY NoWill the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on October 13?99.6¢5$4.9848%46
BUY NoWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on October 13?99.8¢5$4.9948%46
BUY YesWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on October 14?0.9¢3$0.0248%46
BUY NoWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on October 14?54¢5$2.7548%46
BUY YesWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on October 14?0.3¢8$0.0248%46
BUY YesWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on October 13?5.3¢7$0.3748%46
BUY YesWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on October 14?1.9¢5$0.1048%46
BUY YesWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on October 13?0.3¢9$0.0348%46
BUY NoWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on October 13?99.9¢23$2348%46
BUY NoWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on October 13?99.9¢2$1.8648%46
BUY NoWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on October 13?71.8¢16$1148%46
BUY YesWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on October 13?0.3¢10$0.0348%46
BUY NoWill Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?20¢31$6.2848%46