| Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026? | Yes | 17.2k | 28.2¢ | 92¢ | $15.8k | +$11.0k | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026? | No | 15.0k | 23¢ | 87¢ | $13.1k | +$9,611 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 9, 2026? | No | 9,750 | 85.2¢ | 97.1¢ | $9,467 | +$1,157 | $0 | |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 10.0k | 93¢ | 90.5¢ | $9,050 | −$250 | $0 | |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 10.0k | 63¢ | 62.5¢ | $6,250 | −$50 | $0 | |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 6,331 | 74.5¢ | 85.5¢ | $5,413 | +$694 | −$19 | |
| Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 1,622 | 35.6¢ | 90.5¢ | $1,468 | +$890 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 15, 2026? | No | 1,500 | 57.3¢ | 91.5¢ | $1,372 | +$512 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 23, 2026? | No | 1,000 | 46.5¢ | 90.5¢ | $905 | +$440 | $0 | |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 1,310 | 38¢ | 63.5¢ | $832 | +$334 | $0 | |
| Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026? | No | 625 | 53¢ | 91.5¢ | $572 | +$241 | $0 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 870 | 57¢ | 36.5¢ | $318 | −$178 | $0 | |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 1,600 | 30.9¢ | 17.8¢ | $286 | −$208 | $0 | |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 3,000 | 16.6¢ | 8.1¢ | $242 | −$256 | $0 | |
| Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | No | 254 | 85¢ | 90.1¢ | $229 | +$13 | $0 | |
| Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond? | Yes | 200 | 36.5¢ | 37.3¢ | $75 | +$1.50 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 12 and October 18, 2026? | Yes | 1,000 | 50¢ | 5.1¢ | $51 | −$450 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 19 and October 25, 2026? | Yes | 275 | 14.8¢ | 3.2¢ | $8.81 | −$32 | $0 | |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | Yes | 200 | 8.7¢ | 1.8¢ | $3.60 | −$14 | $0 | |
| OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? | Yes | 19 | 16.8¢ | 15.5¢ | $2.98 | −$0.26 | +$2.08 | |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026? | Yes | 100 | 40.8¢ | 0.9¢ | $0.90 | −$40 | $0 | |
| Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027? | Yes | 5 | 17¢ | 5.1¢ | $0.24 | −$0.57 | +$0.05 | |
| Starmer out by May 15, 2026? | Yes | 10.2k | 22.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2,311 | +$30 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 10, 2026? | Yes | 6,304 | 31.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2,001 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 31, 2026? | Yes | 5,500 | 79.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$4,393 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 17, 2026? | Yes | 5,381 | 45.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2,457 | $0 | |
| Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? | No | 4,800 | 61¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2,928 | $0 | |
| Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 3,826 | 9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$344 | −$8.38 | |
| Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 3,441 | 91¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3,131 | −$1,828 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 14, 2026? | Yes | 2,800 | 34.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$972 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 4, 2026? | Yes | 2,518 | 1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$25 | $0 | |
| Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 2,500 | 50¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,250 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 16, 2026? | Yes | 2,185 | 1.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$23 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 29, 2026? | Yes | 2,000 | 2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$40 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 27, 2026? | Yes | 2,000 | 2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$40 | $0 | |
| U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31? | No | 2,000 | 26¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$520 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 17, 2026? | Yes | 2,000 | 60.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,203 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 14, 2026? | Yes | 2,000 | 2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$40 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 6, 2026? | Yes | 1,735 | 1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$17 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 13, 2026? | Yes | 1,518 | 2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$30 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 26, 2026? | Yes | 1,505 | 6.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$94 | −$2.91 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026? | Yes | 1,500 | 86.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1,292 | $0 | |
| Will Angeliki Stogia - Labour win the Gorton and Denton by-election? | Yes | 1,332 | 13.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$176 | +$14 | |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | Yes | 1,250 | 13.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$166 | $0 | |
| Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 12? | Yes | 1,249 | 9.7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$121 | +$5.71 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Flash model be released on September 3, 2026? | Yes | 1,190 | 10.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$120 | $0 | |
| Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 1,100 | 65¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$715 | $0 | |
| Will Alphabet (GOOGL) beat quarterly earnings? | No | 1,095 | 5.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$60 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 12, 2026? | Yes | 1,023 | 1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$10 | $0 | |
| Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? | Yes | 1,000 | 4.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$43 | $0 | |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? | Yes | 1,000 | 7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$70 | $0 | |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 1,000 | 2.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$25 | $0 | |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? | No | 1,000 | 59¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$590 | $0 | |
| GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? | Yes | 950 | 56.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$533 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 18, 2026? | Yes | 899 | 8.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$75 | −$0.76 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 15, 2026? | Yes | 778 | 1.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$8.52 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 23, 2026? | Yes | 694 | 14.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$101 | +$4.75 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 11, 2026? | Yes | 667 | 2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$13 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 11, 2026? | Yes | 662 | 7.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$48 | −$0.48 | |
| US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? | Yes | 600 | 8¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$48 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 24, 2026? | Yes | 560 | 5.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$31 | −$1.16 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 21, 2026? | Yes | 559 | 1.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$7.64 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 23, 2026? | Yes | 546 | 0.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2.08 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 13, 2026? | Yes | 539 | 2.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$12 | −$0.46 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 30, 2026? | Yes | 510 | 3.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$18 | $0 | |
| Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? | Yes | 508 | 13.9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$71 | +$11 | |
| Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by less than 3%? | Yes | 500 | 9¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$45 | $0 | |
| Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30? | Yes | 500 | 74.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$372 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 7, 2026? | Yes | 500 | 5.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$28 | $0 | |
| Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 3% and 6%? | Yes | 500 | 12¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$60 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 25, 2026? | Yes | 500 | 2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$10 | $0 | |
| Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by August 31, 2026? | No | 500 | 70.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$351 | $0 | |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | No | 500 | 30¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$150 | $0 | |
| Will Google (GOOGL) close above $330 end of January? | No | 500 | 46¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$230 | $0 | |
| Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026? | Yes | 500 | 67¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$335 | $0 | |
| Bank of England increases interest rates after April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 433 | 56.3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$244 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 25, 2026? | Yes | 291 | 0.2¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$0.58 | $0 | |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 250 | 13¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$33 | $0 | |
| Will 'Clair Obscur: Expedition 33' win Game of the Year in the 2025 Steam Awards? | Yes | 250 | 70¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$175 | $0 | |
| Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary election? | No | 250 | 24¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$60 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 24, 2026? | Yes | 200 | 66.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$133 | $0 | |
| Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of December 2025? | Yes | 200 | 54¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$108 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 30, 2026? | Yes | 181 | 7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$13 | +$1,093 | |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | Yes | 100 | 80¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$80 | $0 | |
| Will MrBeast say "Cash" during his next YouTube video? | Yes | 100 | 46¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$46 | $0 | |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? | Yes | 100 | 69¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$69 | $0 | |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? | Yes | 100 | 53¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$53 | $0 | |
| Will Hannah Spencer win the Gorton and Denton by-election? | No | 100 | 31.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$32 | $0 | |
| Will Starmer say "Iran" 3+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event? | Yes | 100 | 78¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$78 | $0 | |
| Will MrBeast say "Hundred" or "Thousand" or "Million" 10+ times during his next YouTube video? | Yes | 100 | 46¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$46 | $0 | |
| Will Keir Starmer say "Rules-based" during the next Prime Minister's Questions? | Yes | 100 | 11¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$11 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 6, 2026? | Yes | 70 | 1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$0.70 | $0 | |
| Will Keir Starmer say "McSweeney" during the next Prime Minister's Questions? | No | 10 | 25¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2.50 | $0 | |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 9, 2026? | Yes | 5 | 7¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$0.35 | +$5.68 | |
