sharpside
LIVE--:--:-- UTCdata as of —24h vol —trades —whale trades —markets —Polymarket flow, ranked — who’s sharp, who’s early, where size is moving.
Traders/Rank #3,631

0x24321322b33abD6850aC01b7EDE4211

0x213…7657
SharpWR 60+PoliticsOtherCrypto
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$6,162vol $604k
PnL 30d+$969gains $3,194 · losses $1,146
PnL 7d+$31win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate64.8%adj 63.4% · 30d 75.0%
Open value$12.9kcash n/a
Positions48 / 245open / all-time
Max drawdown−4.2%of equity peak
Account age6molast trade 1h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$6,555below peak −$61Oct 12

SharpScore inputs

73/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale54
Adjusted win rateraw 64.8% · shrunk toward 50%59
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable80
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity96

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 48

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No6,06783.6¢82.5¢$5,005−$70+$728
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Yes3,72844¢42.5¢$1,584−$54$0
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes1,20077.1¢87.3¢$1,047+$122$0
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026No5,95217.3¢17.5¢$1,042+$14−$518
Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?No1,51657.2¢57.5¢$872+$4.86$0
Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?No1,33157.3¢57.5¢$765+$3.16$0
Trump meets with Putin by December 31?Yes54273.1¢80.5¢$436+$40+$4.40
Will AI solve the Hodge Conjecture in 2026?No50276.2¢79¢$397+$14+$30
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No34965.4¢85.5¢$299+$70+$952
Will Kazem Gharibabadi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?No34054¢73.5¢$250+$66$0
Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 15?No24398.1¢97.9¢$238−$0.68$0
Will Abbas Araghchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?No36558.2¢59¢$216+$3.10$0
Iran leadership change by December 31?Yes1,25619.8¢11.5¢$144−$104$0
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Yes54422.6¢23.5¢$128+$4.65−$7.15
Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?No18154.2¢65.5¢$119+$21$0
Will Trump and Putin not meet?Yes52524¢18.5¢$97−$29+$35
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?No70530.8¢13.5¢$95−$122−$721
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?Yes70035¢11.5¢$81−$165$0
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?Yes85020¢3.4¢$28−$142$0
Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027?No2065.6¢65.5¢$13−$0.01+$5.09
Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 31?Yes2454.9¢4.5¢$11−$1.04$0
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?No2134.5¢45.5¢$9.66+$2.33+$161
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes8553.3¢1.1¢$8.98−$19$0
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes4015¢13¢$5.20−$0.80$0
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Yes6,97419.8¢0¢$0−$1,381+$143
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?No3,2426.1¢0¢$0−$199+$75
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?No2,14665.7¢0¢$0−$1,410+$199
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?No1,03266.1¢0¢$0−$682+$0.06
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by August 31?No91217.1¢0¢$0−$156$0
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?No64428.1¢0¢$0−$181−$28
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by August 31?Yes57810.5¢0¢$0−$61−$2.42
Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?Yes52430.6¢0¢$0−$161+$57
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by September 30?Yes20021¢0¢$0−$42$0
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 3, 2026?No1596.2¢0¢$0−$9.83−$0.19
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 9, 9:15PM-9:20PM ETDown1504.3¢0¢$0−$6.50$0
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 9, 9:05PM-9:10PM ETUp1102.2¢0¢$0−$2.40+$3.22
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?Yes10423.5¢0¢$0−$24−$0.93
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?Yes10329¢0¢$0−$30−$0.85
Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?No10243¢0¢$0−$44−$1.00
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Yes9916.4¢0¢$0−$16+$154
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?Yes9313¢0¢$0−$12−$6.49
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Yes8233.4¢0¢$0−$27+$122
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?Yes6426¢0¢$0−$17$0
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes643.4¢0¢$0−$2.20−$0.08
Will Bitcoin dip to $77,000 on September 4?Yes4712.6¢0¢$0−$5.92−$0.11
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Yes4313¢0¢$0−$5.61$0
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes405.7¢0¢$0−$2.28−$0.09
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 9, 9:10PM-9:15PM ETDown304¢0¢$0−$1.20+$5.50

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoWill Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?58¢6$3.5465%73Sharp
BUY NoWill Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?57¢121$6965%73Sharp
BUY YesNext US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?43¢54$2365%73Sharp
BUY NoWill a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 15?98.9¢101$10065%73Sharp
BUY NoWill a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 15?99¢101$10065%73Sharp
BUY YesWill an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?18.6¢237$4465%73Sharp
BUY YesWill an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?19¢145$2865%73Sharp
BUY YesNext US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?45.6¢90$4165%73Sharp
BUY NoWill Kazem Gharibabadi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?56¢90$5065%73Sharp
BUY YesNext US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?46¢250$11565%73Sharp
BUY NoWill Kazem Gharibabadi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?53.2¢250$13365%73Sharp
BUY YesNext US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?44¢153$6865%73Sharp
BUY YesNext US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?44¢121$5365%73Sharp
BUY YesNext US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?44¢153$6865%73Sharp
BUY YesNext US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?44¢153$6865%73Sharp
BUY YesNext US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?44¢153$6865%73Sharp
BUY YesNext US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?44¢153$6865%73Sharp
BUY YesNext US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?44¢34$1565%73Sharp
SELL NoWill OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?44¢269$11865%73Sharp
SELL NoWill no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027?67.4¢269$18165%73Sharp