sharpside
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DontCryMontreal

0x227…901a
PoliticsOtherSport
Polymarket
PnL all-time−$717vol $101k
PnL 30d+$813gains $1,246 · losses $1,271
PnL 7d+$239win rate 7d 35.5%
Win rate37.6%adj 38.3% · 30d 41.0%
Open value$8,889cash n/a
Positions324 / 655open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age3molast trade 2h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$221below peak −$163Oct 12

SharpScore inputs

30/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 37.6% · shrunk toward 50%0
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable94
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 100

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Henrietta Modig Serrate be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Kronoberg?Yes50058¢95.4¢$477+$187$0
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?Yes45041.3¢80.5¢$362+$176$0
Will Bill Harvey win the next Hobart mayoral election?No32678.2¢88.1¢$288+$32+$7.65
Will Rachel De Basso be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Jönköping County?Yes33274.5¢77¢$256+$8.22$0
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Kansas be 1,200,000 or more?No29182.5¢85.5¢$249+$8.62+$2.38
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa be between 1,450,000 and 1,500,000?No30075.2¢74.9¢$224−$0.93$0
Will Roman Zarzycký be the next Mayor of Plzeň?Yes23073.7¢96.5¢$222+$52$0
Will Peter Fiabáne win the 2026 Žilina mayoral election?Yes30077.6¢73.5¢$221−$12$0
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Virginia be between 3,000,000 and 3,250,000?No21078.9¢96.2¢$202+$36−$1.56
Will Jakub Hruška be the next Mayor of Brno?Yes20023¢94.5¢$189+$143$0
Will Branislav Becík win the 2026 Nitra Region gubernatorial election?Yes20084.7¢92.6¢$185+$16$0
Will Jozef Viskupič win the 2026 Trnava Region gubernatorial election?Yes20072.5¢92¢$184+$39$0
Will Ken Dorsey win the next Burnie mayoral election?No15086.6¢96¢$144+$14+$10
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Michigan be 5,600,000 or more?No15786.5¢89.9¢$141+$5.32$0
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from South Carolina be between 1,600,000 and 1,800,000?No20862.9¢67.5¢$141+$9.52$0
Will Adam Barnett win the next Northern Midlands mayoral election?No13790.5¢95.6¢$131+$6.93+$11
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Florida be between 7,500,000 and 7,750,000?No15277.6¢85.1¢$130+$11$0
Will Chris Lynch win the next Burnie mayoral election?No13380.7¢93.5¢$124+$17$0
Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?Yes16046.7¢76.5¢$122+$48$0
Will total votes cast in the first round of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Georgia be between 4,200,000 and 4,400,000?Yes28020.5¢43.5¢$122+$64$0
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Ohio be between 4,650,000 and 4,800,000?No17372.1¢69¢$119−$5.35$0
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Connecticut be between 1,200,000 and 1,300,000?Yes26218.2¢43¢$113+$65+$9.70
Will Eva Nemčovská win the 2026 Trnava mayoral election?Yes20549.1¢50.5¢$104+$2.94$0
Will Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?No14070¢71.5¢$100+$2.10$0
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Virginia be less than 2,500,000?No10381.1¢97¢$100+$16+$23
Will Marilyn Crawford win the 2026 Ajax mayoral election?Yes12273¢81.5¢$99+$10$0
Will Erika Jurinová win the 2026 Žilina Region gubernatorial election?Yes12028¢80.5¢$97+$63$0
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Arizona be between 2,750,000 and 2,900,000?Yes30933¢29.5¢$91−$11+$1.33
Will the Ornn H200 Index be at least $5.50 on October 31, 2026?Yes20031.5¢44.1¢$88+$25$0
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii be 490,000 or more?No9786.4¢89¢$86+$2.53$0
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Michigan be between 4,800,000 and 5,000,000?Yes23420.6¢36¢$84+$36$0
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Vermont be between 275,000 and 300,000?Yes38934¢21.5¢$84−$49$0
Will Michal Uherčík win the 2026 Martin mayoral election?Yes20038.2¢41.5¢$83+$6.54$0
Will Branislav Baroš win the 2026 Trnava mayoral election?Yes20533¢39¢$80+$12$0
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from New Mexico be between 750,000 and 800,000?Yes20019.4¢39¢$78+$39$0
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Vermont be between 300,000 and 325,000?Yes23530.3¢32.5¢$76+$5.24$0
Will John Kelly win the next Hobart mayoral election?No11268.4¢68¢$76−$0.43$0
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of New York be between 5,500,000 and 6,000,000?Yes20033.3¢37.5¢$75+$8.35+$24
Will Moe Comuzzi win the 2026 Thunder Bay mayoral election?No10079¢74.5¢$75−$4.50$0
Will Dorothy McCabe win the 2026 Waterloo mayoral election?Yes10067.8¢74¢$74+$6.25$0
Will voter turnout be between 78% and 80% in the 2026 New Zealand general election?Yes20037¢36.5¢$73−$1.00$0
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Michigan be between 4,400,000 and 4,600,000?No8587.6¢83.5¢$71−$3.46−$4.87
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.00 and $4.50 on October 31, 2026?No680¢96.3¢$65+$65$0
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from New Mexico be between 700,000 and 750,000?Yes20022.8¢32.5¢$65+$19$0
Will voter turnout be between 76% and 78% in the 2026 New Zealand general election?Yes20031¢32¢$64+$2.00$0
Will Riot Games Win the 2026 Esports Tournament Organiser of the Year Award?Yes20031¢30.5¢$61−$1.00$0
Will Miroslava Ferancová be the next Mayor of Olomouc?Yes11591.4¢52.7¢$61−$45$0
Will Ján Danko win the 2026 Martin mayoral election?Yes20031.9¢29¢$58−$5.73$0
Will EFG Win the 2026 Esports Tournament Organiser of the Year Award?Yes20033¢29¢$58−$8.10$0
Will Ashmeed Khan win the 2026 Ajax mayoral election?No6476¢87.5¢$56+$7.32$0
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Kentucky be between 1,600,000 and 1,700,000?Yes17518.6¢29.5¢$52+$19$0
Will Kevin Ashe win the 2026 Pickering mayoral election?Yes7165¢69¢$49+$2.84$0
Will NDP win the most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election?Yes20067.6¢24¢$48−$87$0
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Virginia be between 2,500,000 and 2,750,000?No5886.7¢80.5¢$47−$3.62−$5.95
Will Rastislav Johanes win the 2026 Žilina mayoral election?No6074.3¢76.5¢$46+$1.30$0
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Arkansas be 1,050,000 or more?No5180.4¢89.1¢$46+$4.47−$21
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $5.50 on October 31, 2026?Yes20024.8¢22¢$44−$5.60$0
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.50 and $5.00 on October 31, 2026?Yes20020¢21¢$42+$2.00$0
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Kentucky be between 1,500,000 and 1,600,000?Yes17524¢24¢$42$0$0
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from South Dakota be 400,000 or more?Yes20011¢21¢$42+$20$0
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Kentucky be 1,800,000 or more?No4984.9¢84.3¢$42−$0.31−$8.86
Will Geoffrey Summers win the next Burnie mayoral election?No4884.8¢86.9¢$41+$0.97+$21
Will LOUD win VALORANT Champions 2026?Yes11041.3¢37.1¢$41−$4.67$0
Will total votes cast in the first round of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Georgia be between 4,400,000 and 4,600,000?Yes28013.5¢14.5¢$41+$2.67$0
Will Keith Riel win the 2026 Peterborough mayoral election?Yes19524.5¢20.5¢$40−$7.80+$1.27
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Rhode Island be between 400,000 and 450,000?Yes20030¢19.5¢$39−$21$0
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon be between 1,900,000 and 2,000,000?Yes15012.4¢25.1¢$38+$19$0
Will Stefan Evers be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?Yes16031.8¢23.5¢$38−$13$0
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Ohio be between 4,500,000 and 4,650,000?Yes20021.3¢18.7¢$37−$5.20$0
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Rhode Island be between 300,000 and 350,000?Yes20014.3¢18.5¢$37+$8.32$0
Will Conservative win the second most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election?Yes20056.9¢18¢$36−$78$0
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from South Dakota be between 375,000 and 400,000?Yes11511.3¢29.5¢$34+$21$0
Will Jan Nadrchal be the next Mayor of Pardubice?Yes5039¢65¢$33+$13$0
Will Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?Yes15518.4¢20.8¢$32+$3.77$0
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Louisiana be between 1,300,000 and 1,400,000?Yes13019¢21.8¢$28+$3.60$0
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Texas be between 9,600,000 and 10,000,000?Yes10018.6¢26¢$26+$7.41$0
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Idaho be between 680,000 and 720,000?Yes976¢26.5¢$26+$20$0
Will Shannon Weber win the 2026 Waterloo mayoral election?Yes10016.6¢25¢$25+$8.45$0
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Kentucky be between 1,700,000 and 1,800,000?No3080¢82.4¢$25+$0.72+$2.81
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa be between 1,350,000 and 1,400,000?Yes20020¢12¢$24−$16$0
Will Marathon win Best Multiplayer at the 2026 Game Awards?Yes20015¢12¢$24−$6.00$0
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Texas be between 10,000,000 and 10,400,000?Yes11117.7¢21¢$23+$3.69$0
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Arkansas be between 825,000 and 900,000?Yes1938.5¢12¢$23+$6.71$0
Will Vladislav Kondratovič win the 2026 Northern Nalšia district by-election?Yes9025.9¢25¢$23−$0.80$0
Will Gears of War: E-Day win Best Multiplayer at the 2026 Game Awards?Yes20011.4¢11¢$22−$0.71$0
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from New Hampshire be between 700,000 and 750,000?Yes10214¢21.5¢$22+$7.63$0
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Colorado be between 2,700,000 and 2,850,000?Yes9021.1¢24¢$22+$2.65$0
Will Manuela Schwesig be the next Minister-President of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern?Yes2071¢98.1¢$20+$5.41$0
Will Rastislav Mochnacký win the 2026 Prešov mayoral election?Yes11321¢16.5¢$19−$5.07$0
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois be between 4,000,000 and 4,250,000?Yes6020¢30.5¢$18+$6.30$0
Will total votes cast in the first round of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Georgia be between 4,000,000 and 4,200,000?Yes8731¢20.5¢$18−$9.12$0
Will Kerry-Lynne Findlay win the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election?Yes30020¢5.8¢$17−$43$0
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Arkansas be between 975,000 and 1,050,000?Yes1506.9¢11.5¢$17+$6.85$0
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Arizona be between 2,600,000 and 2,750,000?Yes5031¢34.5¢$17+$1.75$0
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Arkansas be between 900,000 and 975,000?Yes2525¢68.5¢$17+$11$0
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Texas be 11,200,000 or more?Yes1002¢16.6¢$17+$15$0
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Maine be between 700,000 and 750,000?Yes4922.4¢33.5¢$16+$5.43$0
Will Pam Alexis win the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election?Yes30052.2¢5.4¢$16−$141$0
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Vermont be between 325,000 and 350,000?No2564¢64.4¢$16+$0.10$0
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Nebraska be 900,000 or more?Yes1370.6¢11.7¢$16+$15$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
BUY NoWill John Kelly win the next Hobart mayoral election?68.4¢112$7738%30
SELL YesWill Marti Zucco win the next Hobart mayoral election?2.9¢9$0.2638%30
BUY NoWill Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?70¢140$9838%30
SELL YesWill Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.5% and 1.0%?0.4¢100$0.3638%30
SELL YesWill Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?3.7¢20$0.7438%30
SELL YesWill Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?28.5¢200$5738%30
BUY NoWill Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?91.6¢200$18338%30
BUY YesWill Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?18.4¢155$2838%30
BUY YesWill Branislav Becík win the 2026 Nitra Region gubernatorial election?86.9¢174$15138%30
BUY YesWill total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Ohio be between 4,500,000 and 4,650,000?21.3¢200$4338%30
BUY NoWill total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from South Carolina be between 1,600,000 and 1,800,000?60¢7$4.1338%30
BUY YesWill the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?12¢141$1738%30
BUY YesWill Sylvie Tanguay win the next Saint-François Quebec National Assembly election?76¢10$7.6538%30
BUY YesWill Sylvie Tanguay win the next Saint-François Quebec National Assembly election?77.3¢200$15538%30
SELL YesWill Geneviève Hébert win the next Saint-François Quebec National Assembly election?10¢100$1038%30
BUY NoWill total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Virginia be between 2,500,000 and 2,750,000?90¢20$1838%30
BUY YesWill total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Michigan be between 4,800,000 and 5,000,000?24¢34$8.1938%30
BUY YesWill total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Michigan be between 4,800,000 and 5,000,000?20¢200$4038%30
BUY NoWill total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from South Carolina be between 1,600,000 and 1,800,000?68¢36$2438%30
BUY NoWill total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from South Carolina be between 1,600,000 and 1,800,000?53¢80$4238%30