PnL all-time−$8,740vol $1.48M
PnL 30d−$2,136gains $3,756 · losses $6,985
PnL 7d+$116win rate 7d 40.0%
Win rate46.6%adj 46.7% · 30d 44.5%
Open value$960cash n/a
Positions9 / 854open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age7molast trade 33m ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL−$5,035below peak −$10.5kOct 13
SharpScore inputs
31/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 46.6% · shrunk toward 50%17
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable98
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? · Yesclosed+$827Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? · Noclosed+$743Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? · Yesclosed+$709US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? · Yesclosed+$677Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? · Yesclosed+$647
Worst markets
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) · Conor McGregorclosed−$2,549Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yesclosed−$1,326Will Kai and Speed beat the gauntlet within 12 hours? · Noclosed−$1,324Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yesclosed−$975Will Trump say "Alaska" this week? · Noclosed−$835
Open positions · 9
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 45% or higher? | Yes | 236 | 79.4¢ | 89.6¢ | $212 | +$24 | $0 | |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher? | Yes | 211 | 83.5¢ | 90¢ | $190 | +$14 | $0 | |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher? | Yes | 193 | 82.4¢ | 89.9¢ | $173 | +$14 | $0 | |
| Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 50% or higher? | Yes | 165 | 91.2¢ | 93.5¢ | $155 | +$3.87 | $0 | |
| Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 40% or higher? | Yes | 79 | 78.4¢ | 87.4¢ | $69 | +$7.09 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026? | No | 123 | 80.9¢ | 55¢ | $68 | −$32 | $0 | |
| US imports Russian diesel by October 31? | Yes | 304 | 65.7¢ | 11¢ | $33 | −$167 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)? | Yes | 67 | 75.9¢ | 48.5¢ | $32 | −$18 | $0 | |
| Will Meta be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026? | No | 41 | 85.4¢ | 67.1¢ | $27 | −$7.51 | $0 |
Recent trades
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