PnL all-time+$3,614vol $2.24M
PnL 30d−$2,959gains $1,760 · losses $3,079
PnL 7d−$1,151win rate 7d 37.5%
Win rate75.8%adj 74.3% · 30d 63.2%
Open value$10.7kcash n/a
Positions11 / 363open / all-time
Max drawdown−92.6%of equity peak
Account age2.0ylast trade 3h ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL+$356below peak −$4,443Oct 13
SharpScore inputs
58/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale51
Adjusted win rateraw 75.8% · shrunk toward 50%86
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable85
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity7
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of September 2026? · Yesclosed+$724Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? · Yesclosed+$677US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? · Noclosed+$649Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? · Yesclosed+$581US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? · Yesclosed+$556
Worst markets
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31? · Yesclosed−$1,770Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? · Yesclosed−$1,601Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? · Yesclosed−$1,200Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026? · Yesopen−$1,165US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? · Noclosed−$937
Open positions · 11
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027? | No | 3,630 | 90¢ | 89.5¢ | $3,249 | −$18 | $0 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? | Yes | 2,971 | 97.5¢ | 97.3¢ | $2,891 | −$4.50 | $0 | |
| Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? | No | 1,261 | 87.9¢ | 86.1¢ | $1,085 | −$23 | −$2.52 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 2,219 | 72.3¢ | 42.5¢ | $943 | −$662 | −$6.69 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 5,000 | 19.1¢ | 17.5¢ | $875 | −$79 | −$231 | |
| Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? | No | 664 | 83.3¢ | 85.5¢ | $568 | +$14 | +$33 | |
| Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 1,800 | 79.1¢ | 20.4¢ | $367 | −$1,057 | −$108 | |
| Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? | No | 331 | 91¢ | 89.5¢ | $296 | −$4.97 | +$1.69 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 453 | 84¢ | 38¢ | $172 | −$208 | $0 | |
| Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 4,489 | 4¢ | 2.7¢ | $121 | −$58 | −$5.30 | |
| Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 4,498 | 3.8¢ | 2¢ | $88 | −$83 | −$45 |
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