sharpside
LIVE--:--:-- UTCdata as of —24h vol —trades —whale trades —markets —Polymarket flow, ranked — who’s sharp, who’s early, where size is moving.
Traders/Unranked

TheDao

0x26f…a969
PoliticsOther
Polymarket
PnL all-time−$349vol $553k
PnL 30d−$807gains $1,944 · losses $1,496
PnL 7d+$911win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate58.1%adj 55.6% · 30d 57.7%
Open value$5,367cash n/a
Positions45 / 88open / all-time
Max drawdown−95.9%of equity peak
Account age2molast trade 2h ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$1,458below peak −$3,343Oct 8

SharpScore inputs

28/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 58.1% · shrunk toward 50%39
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable65
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d100
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity4

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 45

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes107k1.8¢3¢$3,222+$1,321+$438
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes41.5k0.6¢1.9¢$789+$550+$95
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?No2,41024.3¢22.5¢$542−$45$0
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?Yes2,15128.5¢9.5¢$204−$408$0
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes5,0122.5¢2.3¢$115−$12+$142
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?Yes20073¢56¢$112−$34$0
Will Koguma peak as a Strong typhoon?Yes30026.7¢21.9¢$66−$14$0
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Yes30034¢19.5¢$59−$44$0
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026?Yes20051¢27¢$54−$48$0
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Yes1,0005¢5¢$50$0$0
Will Alina Habba be the next White House Press Secretary?Yes1,4937.4¢3.2¢$47−$63$0
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?No16828¢18.5¢$31−$16$0
Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary?Yes15036.5¢12.4¢$19−$36$0
Will Taylor Swift's daily YouTube view count hit 24M in October?Yes15043.5¢11.5¢$17−$48$0
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes6934.1¢1.6¢$11−$18+$0.78
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes1,1001.1¢0.5¢$6.05−$6.05$0
Will Wes Moore be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?Yes773.8¢6.3¢$4.84+$1.90$0
Will the International Criminal Court win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes5303.9¢0.9¢$4.50−$16$0
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?Yes509¢7.5¢$3.75−$0.75$0
Will Trump rename an ocean in 2026?Yes1405¢2.1¢$2.93−$4.05$0
Will Koguma peak at severe tropical storm grade or weaker?Yes901¢3.2¢$2.88+$1.98$0
Eritrea invades Ethiopia by October 31?Yes55¢49¢$2.45+$2.20$0
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026No1019¢17.5¢$1.75−$0.15$0
Another NATO Article 4 invocation by October 31, 2026?Yes529¢7.5¢$0.38−$1.07$0
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 24, 2026?No3,69118.4¢0¢$0−$680−$17
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11?No3,41415.9¢0¢$0−$542$0
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026?No2,9573¢0¢$0−$89−$3.44
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1490?Yes2,01944.7¢0¢$0−$902−$11
Houthis seize an oil tanker by September 30, 2026?Yes1,79613¢0¢$0−$234$0
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026?No1,27754.9¢0¢$0−$700−$4.74
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 22, 2026?No1,12240.8¢0¢$0−$458−$11
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?Yes81968.5¢0¢$0−$561−$7.05
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 25, 2026?Yes5860.8¢0¢$0−$4.66−$0.19
Will the next OpenAI GPT Luna model be released on or prior to September 22, 2026?No50248.2¢0¢$0−$242−$1.91
Will the next OpenAI GPT Luna model be released on September 24, 2026?Yes4902¢0¢$0−$9.80$0
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 23, 2026?No30038¢0¢$0−$114−$2.83
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 28, 2026?Yes1771.9¢0¢$0−$3.37−$0.13
Trump issues Iran Sanctions Executive Order by Aug 28?Yes15539.5¢0¢$0−$61−$52
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1510?Yes13418¢0¢$0−$24−$8.61
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in August?Yes13112¢0¢$0−$16$0
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by September 30, 2026?Yes12430¢0¢$0−$37−$11
Will Elon Musk attend the White House state dinner for Xi Jinping?No995.8¢0¢$0−$5.76+$2.56
Will Trump say "Baby" during remarks at NASA?Yes7322¢0¢$0−$16−$0.50
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026?No5049¢0¢$0−$25$0
Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by August 31, 2026?No4861.4¢0¢$0−$29−$0.09

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
SELL YesNext Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026?5¢150$7.5058%28
BUY NoUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?24¢1,000$24058%28
BUY NoUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?24¢1,000$24058%28
BUY YesNext Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?73¢200$14658%28
BUY YesNext Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026?51¢200$10258%28
BUY NoUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?29¢10$2.9058%28
BUY YesWill Taylor Swift's daily YouTube view count hit 24M in October?50¢80$4058%28
BUY YesWill Taylor Swift's daily YouTube view count hit 24M in October?36¢70$2558%28
SELL YesWill the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?5.3¢1,200$6458%28
BUY YesWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?29.7¢273$8158%28
BUY YesWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?30¢1,110$33258%28
BUY YesWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?28.9¢150$4358%28
BUY YesWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?23.9¢456$10958%28
SELL YesWill Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?5¢1,134$5758%28
SELL YesLindsay Clancy convicted of manslaughter in 2026?7¢1,189$8358%28
SELL NoSaudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?88¢50$4458%28
SELL YesLindsay Clancy convicted of manslaughter in 2026?13.3¢541$7258%28
BUY NoWill the next OpenAI GPT Luna model be released on or prior to September 22, 2026?38.1¢202$7758%28
SELL NoWill Elon Musk attend the White House state dinner for Xi Jinping?2¢55$1.1058%28
SELL NoWill Elon Musk attend the White House state dinner for Xi Jinping?2¢89$1.7858%28