PnL all-time+$1.31Mvol $7.21M
PnL 30d$0gains $0 · losses $0
PnL 7d$0win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate47.1%adj 47.4% · 30d 0.0%
Open value$0cash n/a
Positions4 / 160open / all-time
Max drawdown−9.7%of equity peak
Account age2.1ylast trade 1y ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL+$1.31Mbelow peak $0Oct 9
SharpScore inputs
60/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale87
Adjusted win rateraw 47.1% · shrunk toward 50%18
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable73
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d0
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity90
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates? · Yesclosed+$1.18MLord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? · Noclosed+$238kCaroline Ellison sentenced to 24-35 months in prison? · Yesclosed+$41.5kCaroline Ellison not sentenced to prison? · Noclosed+$13.2kWill Trump win 30% of Black men? · Noclosed+$5,821
Worst markets
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? · Noclosed−$29.3kWill Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? · Yesclosed−$26.3kWill a Democrat win the popular vote and the Presidency? · Yesclosed−$25.5kWill Trump win Alabama by 30+ points? · Noclosed−$25.4kAugust temperature increase greater than 1.29°C? · Noclosed−$18.4k
Open positions · 4
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats win popular vote by 2-3%? | Yes | 23.6k | 11.4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2,695 | $0 | |
| Democrats win popular vote by 3-4%? | Yes | 21.3k | 9.5¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$2,027 | $0 | |
| Will another candidate get the most votes of any 3rd party candidate? | Yes | 1,753 | 0.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$1.75 | $0 | |
| Will Trump win Mississippi by 20+ points? | No | 6 | 49¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$3.00 | $0 |
Recent trades
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