| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 1,200 | 81.6¢ | 83.5¢ | $1,002 | +$23 | +$58 | |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? | No | 500 | 92.7¢ | 92.5¢ | $463 | −$1.13 | +$4.13 | |
| Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by December 31, 2026? | No | 450 | 85.9¢ | 94¢ | $423 | +$37 | +$0.65 | |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | No | 450 | 92.2¢ | 93.5¢ | $421 | +$5.69 | +$26 | |
| Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain? | No | 450 | 78.4¢ | 83.3¢ | $375 | +$22 | +$31 | |
| Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? | No | 420 | 72.1¢ | 78¢ | $328 | +$25 | +$52 | |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Yes | 360 | 55.2¢ | 87.3¢ | $314 | +$116 | +$65 | |
| US recession by end of 2026? | No | 300 | 90.7¢ | 93.5¢ | $280 | +$8.26 | −$0.77 | |
| No-confidence vote against Spain PM Sanchez by December 31? | No | 250 | 76.5¢ | 96.9¢ | $242 | +$51 | +$77 | |
| Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027? | No | 270 | 81.7¢ | 85.2¢ | $230 | +$9.45 | +$2.07 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | No | 250 | 75.6¢ | 85.5¢ | $214 | +$25 | −$0.17 | |
| José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison? | No | 200 | 92¢ | 97¢ | $194 | +$9.81 | +$71 | |
| Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? | No | 200 | 90.7¢ | 94.5¢ | $189 | +$7.50 | $0 | |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? | No | 200 | 88.9¢ | 93.5¢ | $187 | +$9.10 | $0 | |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | No | 200 | 76.8¢ | 81¢ | $162 | +$8.50 | $0 | |
| Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? | No | 200 | 76.9¢ | 80¢ | $160 | +$6.17 | +$17 | |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | No | 150 | 89.9¢ | 96.6¢ | $145 | +$10 | +$29 | |
| Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026? | No | 150 | 90.7¢ | 96¢ | $144 | +$7.89 | +$23 | |
| Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? | No | 150 | 90.9¢ | 96¢ | $144 | +$7.72 | +$7.53 | |
| Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026? | No | 150 | 92.1¢ | 95.5¢ | $143 | +$5.06 | +$12 | |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? | Yes | 150 | 89.6¢ | 93.5¢ | $140 | +$5.85 | +$12 | |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time? | Yes | 250 | 44.4¢ | 54.5¢ | $136 | +$25 | +$58 | |
| Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? | No | 150 | 88.1¢ | 90.1¢ | $135 | +$2.92 | $0 | |
| Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? | No | 150 | 80.4¢ | 89.5¢ | $134 | +$14 | +$13 | |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | Yes | 200 | 47.5¢ | 61.5¢ | $123 | +$28 | +$23 | |
| AI bubble burst by June 30, 2027? | No | 150 | 81¢ | 81.5¢ | $122 | +$0.75 | $0 | |
| Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain? | Yes | 150 | 53.9¢ | 80.5¢ | $121 | +$40 | +$5.66 | |
| Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures? | No | 118 | 90.1¢ | 94.5¢ | $112 | +$5.18 | +$0.30 | |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31? | No | 100 | 97.6¢ | 98.9¢ | $99 | +$1.25 | $0 | |
| Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? | No | 100 | 87¢ | 97.3¢ | $97 | +$10 | +$15 | |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | No | 100 | 92.1¢ | 96.5¢ | $96 | +$4.35 | +$9.39 | |
| Iran nuclear test before 2027? | No | 100 | 91.9¢ | 96.3¢ | $96 | +$4.30 | +$3.05 | |
| Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested before 2027? | No | 100 | 81.2¢ | 95.8¢ | $96 | +$15 | +$17 | |
| Will Russia invade another country in 2026? | No | 100 | 88.8¢ | 94¢ | $94 | +$5.20 | $0 | |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | No | 100 | 92¢ | 91.5¢ | $92 | −$0.50 | +$11 | |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? | No | 100 | 81.5¢ | 89.5¢ | $90 | +$8.04 | +$19 | |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | No | 100 | 82.6¢ | 88.5¢ | $89 | +$5.90 | $0 | |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? | No | 100 | 81.1¢ | 84.5¢ | $85 | +$3.44 | +$4.27 | |
| Will there be no Hormuz agreement? | Yes | 100 | 83.6¢ | 83.1¢ | $83 | −$0.50 | $0 | |
| Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026? | Yes | 120 | 39.6¢ | 62¢ | $74 | +$27 | +$11 | |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | Yes | 200 | 34.1¢ | 28.5¢ | $57 | −$11 | +$9.92 | |
| Will PP win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election? | No | 360 | 18.5¢ | 15.5¢ | $56 | −$11 | +$14 | |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026? | No | 50 | 93.2¢ | 98.4¢ | $49 | +$2.55 | +$5.23 | |
| Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31? | No | 50 | 88¢ | 98¢ | $49 | +$4.97 | +$2.24 | |
| Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | No | 110 | 44.1¢ | 44.5¢ | $49 | +$0.45 | +$2.20 | |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | 50 | 90¢ | 97.2¢ | $49 | +$3.58 | +$4.30 | |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | No | 50 | 74.6¢ | 88¢ | $44 | +$6.70 | +$1.30 | |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by December 31? | No | 50 | 88¢ | 85.5¢ | $43 | −$1.25 | $0 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | No | 100 | 44¢ | 40.5¢ | $41 | −$3.50 | −$0.30 | |
| Carles Puigdemont back in Spain in 2026? | Yes | 48 | 69.7¢ | 84.5¢ | $40 | +$7.07 | +$0.49 | |
| Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? | Yes | 50 | 77¢ | 75.5¢ | $38 | −$0.75 | $0 | |
| Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | No | 40 | 79.5¢ | 84¢ | $34 | +$1.80 | −$3.79 | |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 50 | 72¢ | 66.5¢ | $33 | −$2.75 | $0 | |
| Panama Canal effectively closed by October 31? | No | 30 | 97.1¢ | 97.1¢ | $29 | +$0.01 | $0 | |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 30 | 81.6¢ | 76.5¢ | $23 | −$1.53 | $0 | |
| Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad? | No | 20 | 86¢ | 96.8¢ | $19 | +$2.15 | $0 | |
| Plague case in US by December 31? | No | 20 | 90¢ | 93¢ | $19 | +$0.60 | +$1.20 | |
| Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026? | No | 20 | 80¢ | 92.5¢ | $19 | +$2.50 | $0 | |
| US plague travel ban on Russia in 2026? | No | 20 | 86¢ | 92.5¢ | $19 | +$1.30 | −$2.13 | |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31? | Yes | 50 | 39.6¢ | 35.5¢ | $18 | −$2.05 | $0 | |
| Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? | Yes | 100 | 28.9¢ | 17.4¢ | $17 | −$12 | −$1.31 | |
| Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026? | No | 40 | 51.2¢ | 43.5¢ | $17 | −$3.10 | +$3.50 | |
| Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in December? | Yes | 230 | 6.4¢ | 7.5¢ | $17 | +$2.44 | +$0.08 | |
| Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026? | No | 20 | 78¢ | 86¢ | $17 | +$1.60 | −$3.30 | |
| Any G20 leader out in 2026? | No | 18 | 86¢ | 87¢ | $16 | +$0.18 | +$0.63 | |
| Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026? | No | 20 | 69.5¢ | 79.5¢ | $16 | +$2.00 | +$0.30 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by September 30, 2027? | No | 40 | 41¢ | 39.5¢ | $16 | −$0.60 | $0 | |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30? | No | 20 | 71¢ | 77.5¢ | $16 | +$1.30 | +$1.00 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027? | No | 20 | 78.5¢ | 76.5¢ | $15 | −$0.40 | $0 | |
| Will Trump's approval rating hit 36% in 2026? | Yes | 20 | 80¢ | 70¢ | $14 | −$2.00 | $0 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027? | No | 20 | 66¢ | 66¢ | $13 | $0 | $0 | |
| Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30? | Yes | 20 | 66¢ | 66¢ | $13 | $0 | +$0.69 | |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30? | No | 20 | 69.5¢ | 65¢ | $13 | −$0.90 | $0 | |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31? | Yes | 100 | 13.5¢ | 12.8¢ | $13 | −$0.70 | $0 | |
| Iran full airspace closure by December 31? | Yes | 43 | 29¢ | 29¢ | $13 | $0 | +$0.27 | |
| Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? | Yes | 20 | 66.5¢ | 60.5¢ | $12 | −$1.20 | $0 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2027? | Yes | 20 | 58¢ | 58¢ | $12 | $0 | $0 | |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2? | Yes | 100 | 12¢ | 11.6¢ | $12 | −$0.45 | $0 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027? | No | 20 | 49¢ | 49¢ | $9.79 | $0 | $0 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? | Yes | 150 | 14.4¢ | 6.5¢ | $9.75 | −$12 | −$7.97 | |
| Will Trump's approval rating hit 46% in 2026? | No | 10 | 90.1¢ | 91.4¢ | $9.13 | +$0.13 | $0 | |
| Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? | No | 10 | 83¢ | 90.5¢ | $9.05 | +$0.75 | $0 | |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 20 and 40 years in prison? | Yes | 200 | 6.2¢ | 4¢ | $8.00 | −$4.49 | +$3.96 | |
| Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31? | Yes | 20 | 53¢ | 40¢ | $8.00 | −$2.60 | −$2.60 | |
| Israel military action against Lebanon on October 19? | Yes | 10 | 79¢ | 80¢ | $8.00 | +$0.10 | $0 | |
| Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on September 20? | No | 9 | 89.5¢ | 85¢ | $7.99 | −$0.42 | +$1.98 | |
| Will no live-action Gwen Stacy actor be chosen by end of 2027? | Yes | 20 | 38¢ | 38.5¢ | $7.70 | +$0.10 | $0 | |
| Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime? | No | 10 | 71¢ | 71.5¢ | $7.15 | +$0.05 | $0 | |
| Kimberly Guilfoyle out as U.S. Ambassador to Greece by October 31? | No | 10 | 72.3¢ | 67.5¢ | $6.75 | −$0.48 | +$1.19 | |
| Trump declassifies new UFO files by November 30? | Yes | 8 | 84.2¢ | 80.5¢ | $6.66 | −$0.31 | +$6.03 | |
| UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? | Yes | 60 | 12¢ | 10.5¢ | $6.30 | −$0.90 | +$0.80 | |
| Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election be 78-80%? | Yes | 10 | 60.3¢ | 59.5¢ | $5.95 | −$0.08 | +$1.31 | |
| SpaceX becomes a US mobile carrier by December 31, 2027? | No | 10 | 55¢ | 57.5¢ | $5.75 | +$0.25 | $0 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2027? | Yes | 10 | 47¢ | 48¢ | $4.80 | +$0.10 | +$0.10 | |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31? | Yes | 10 | 40¢ | 44¢ | $4.40 | +$0.40 | $0 | |
| Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? | Yes | 50 | 28¢ | 8.5¢ | $4.25 | −$9.75 | +$0.21 | |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 40 and 60 years in prison? | Yes | 200 | 5¢ | 1.8¢ | $3.50 | −$6.50 | −$3.97 | |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 20 | 15¢ | 17.5¢ | $3.50 | +$0.50 | $0 | |
| Will the IEA ask France to release oil stocks by December 31? | Yes | 10 | 55¢ | 35.5¢ | $3.38 | −$1.85 | $0 | |
| Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026? | Yes | 90 | 7.5¢ | 3¢ | $2.70 | −$4.02 | −$1.04 | |
