sharpside
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Traders/Unranked

libratus1

0x28b…eb4f
SharpPnL 50k+PnL 10k+WR 70+WR 60+1y+OtherPolitics
Polymarket
PnL all-time+$59.6kvol $3.43M
PnL 30d−$1,501gains $854 · losses $111
PnL 7d−$344win rate 7d 33.3%
Win rate73.7%adj 72.8% · 30d 78.9%
Open value$6,739cash n/a
Positions76 / 1,154open / all-time
Max drawdown−4.5%of equity peak
Account age3.6ylast trade 11d ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL+$60.9kbelow peak −$2,764Oct 12

SharpScore inputs

78/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale68
Adjusted win rateraw 73.7% · shrunk toward 50%82
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable100
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d62
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity96

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? · Yesclosed+$2,204Will GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026? · Yesclosed+$1,861Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? · Yesclosed+$1,851Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? · Yesclosed+$1,546MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? · Noclosed+$1,407

Worst markets

Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? · Noclosed−$3,467Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026? · Yesclosed−$2,195Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? · Yesclosed−$1,499Starmer out by May 15, 2026? · Noclosed−$1,321Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 3, 2026? · Noclosed−$1,251

Open positions · 76

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?No3,35687.1¢79.5¢$2,668−$255$0
Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?No1,34285.6¢97.2¢$1,305+$155$0
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510?No1,29265.8¢71.6¢$925+$75+$47
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31?No50191¢96.7¢$484+$28+$20
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?No53183.7¢75.5¢$401−$44$0
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495?Yes1,02274.8¢26.5¢$271−$493+$46
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31?No41872.6¢62.4¢$261−$43+$9.24
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by December 31, 2026?Yes8690¢95.2¢$82+$4.48$0
Will SpaceXAI be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?No8494¢97.5¢$82+$2.92$0
Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?Yes11483.4¢71.5¢$81−$14$0
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?Yes25278.4¢31.3¢$79−$119$0
Will Dreamcash launch a token by December 31, 2026?No4489¢92¢$40+$1.31$0
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?Yes13572¢28¢$38−$59+$1.60
Will Alibaba be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?Yes7838.5¢16¢$13−$18−$7.53
Will Trump meet with Aleksandr Lukashenko in 2026?No1074¢86.5¢$8.65+$1.25$0
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495?No144¢73.5¢$0.91+$0.37−$7.37
Will Z.ai be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?Yes612.1¢1¢$0.61−$0.67$0
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes514.9¢0.9¢$0.43−$2.07$0
Will claude-fable-5.1-max be the best AI model on October 12, 2026?Yes28913.2¢0.1¢$0.14−$38$0
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Yes6,9072.1¢0¢$0−$145+$37
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes5,6122¢0¢$0−$115+$36
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes3,55414.8¢0¢$0−$524−$6.79
Will GPT-6 be released by October 31, 2026?No1,26341.4¢0¢$0−$523−$123
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes1,26327¢0¢$0−$340+$3.30
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes1,24015.2¢0¢$0−$189−$48
Will Meta be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?Yes1,1483.7¢0¢$0−$42+$60
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?Yes1,10543.3¢0¢$0−$478−$115
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1530 by December 31?No1,04768.4¢0¢$0−$716−$26
Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by September 3, 2026?No1,0000.9¢0¢$0−$9.00−$0.36
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes8003.2¢0¢$0−$26+$126
Will Meta be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026?Yes7650.3¢0¢$0−$2.02−$0.06
Will Z.ai be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026?Yes5900.2¢0¢$0−$0.91−$0.03
Will GPT-6 be released by November 30, 2026?No58135.2¢0¢$0−$205−$45
Will Meta be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026?Yes5810.7¢0¢$0−$4.26−$0.16
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026?Yes5739¢0¢$0−$52$0
Will Z.ai be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026?Yes5360.3¢0¢$0−$1.54$0
Will Alibaba be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026?Yes51015.8¢0¢$0−$81−$53
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?No5000.2¢0¢$0−$1.00$0
Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes4362.9¢0¢$0−$12−$0.38
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?Yes43521.1¢0¢$0−$92+$129
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 21, 2026?Yes4206¢0¢$0−$25$0
Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?Yes41363.6¢0¢$0−$263+$22
Will OpenAI have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes3663.4¢0¢$0−$12−$0.11
Will Moonshot be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?Yes3489.5¢0¢$0−$33−$1.20
Will claude-opus-5-max be the best AI model on August 24, 2026?Yes34355.2¢0¢$0−$189−$1.46
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by September 30, 2026?No30056¢0¢$0−$168$0
Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 18, 2026?Yes30014¢0¢$0−$42$0
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?Yes29752.1¢0¢$0−$155−$296
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes28720.6¢0¢$0−$59−$0.42
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026?Yes27427.6¢0¢$0−$76+$7.67
Will Alibaba be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?Yes26862.7¢0¢$0−$168−$164
Will OpenAI have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?Yes2531¢0¢$0−$2.53−$0.10
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Yes25014¢0¢$0−$35$0
Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?No24866.8¢0¢$0−$166−$283
Will Alibaba be the third-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?Yes24521.9¢0¢$0−$54+$76
Will Alibaba be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?Yes23010.4¢0¢$0−$24−$0.86
Will Meta be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?Yes2180.3¢0¢$0−$0.65$0
Will MiniMax have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of August 2026?Yes2000.6¢0¢$0−$1.20−$0.02
Will the next Google Gemini Flash model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?No1502.9¢0¢$0−$4.40−$0.17
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Yes1399.2¢0¢$0−$13$0
Will Moonshot be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026?Yes1310.2¢0¢$0−$0.26−$0.01
Will Alibaba be the #3 AI Lab at the end of August 2026 (Style Control On)?Yes13049.4¢0¢$0−$64−$17
Grok 4.6 released by August 11, 2026?Yes12037¢0¢$0−$44$0
Will OpenAI be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?Yes1164¢0¢$0−$4.65$0
Will MiniMax have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of September 2026?Yes1160.9¢0¢$0−$1.03−$0.04
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%?Yes1002¢0¢$0−$2.00−$1.15
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes1002.8¢0¢$0−$2.80−$0.08
Will Moonshot be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?Yes920.3¢0¢$0−$0.28$0
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country?Yes9074.8¢0¢$0−$67$0
Will OpenAI be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?Yes883.4¢0¢$0−$3.00−$0.12
Will any other model be the best AI model on October 5, 2026?No2213.1¢0¢$0−$2.92−$0.10
Will claude-opus-5-high be the best AI model on August 17, 2026?Yes171.6¢0¢$0−$0.28−$0.01
Will Alibaba be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026?Yes170¢0¢$0$0$0
Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?Yes173.5¢0¢$0−$0.59−$0.02
Will SpaceXAI be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?Yes150.3¢0¢$0−$0.04$0
Will claude-fable-5.1-max be the best AI model on October 5, 2026?Yes155.6¢0¢$0−$0.84−$0.03

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
SELL NoWill Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?8¢123$9.8674%78Sharp
BUY YesWill the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?78.7¢58$4674%78Sharp
BUY YesWill the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?78.3¢194$15274%78Sharp
BUY YesWill the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?72¢135$9774%78Sharp
BUY YesWill the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495?71.9¢122$8774%78Sharp
SELL NoWill Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?5.8¢371$2174%78Sharp
BUY YesWill any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1530 by December 31?95.9¢69$6674%78Sharp
BUY YesWill any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1530 by December 31?95.6¢50$4874%78Sharp
BUY YesWill any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1530 by December 31?94.7¢108$10274%78Sharp
SELL NoWill any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31?95¢566$53874%78Sharp
BUY YesWill claude-fable-5.1-max be the best AI model on October 12, 2026?13.2¢289$3874%78Sharp
BUY NoWill any other model be the best AI model on October 5, 2026?13.1¢22$2.9274%78Sharp
BUY YesWill claude-fable-5.1-max be the best AI model on October 5, 2026?5.6¢15$0.8474%78Sharp
BUY NoWill SpaceXAI be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?94¢84$7974%78Sharp
BUY NoWill SpaceXAI be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?95.1¢114$10874%78Sharp
BUY YesWill the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026?87¢125$10974%78Sharp
BUY YesWill the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026?97.5¢690$67374%78Sharp
SELL YesWill SpaceXAI be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?22.7¢62$1474%78Sharp
SELL YesWill any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?3.6¢304$1174%78Sharp
BUY YesWill Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?63.6¢587$37474%78Sharp