sharpside
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Traders/Unranked

BlackswanDefi

0x28c…da06@Blackswan_DeFi
PoliticsCrypto
Polymarket
PnL all-time−$5,302vol $5.30M
PnL 30d+$137gains $851 · losses $80
PnL 7d+$35win rate 7d 0.0%
Win rate52.4%adj 52.1% · 30d 75.0%
Open value$3,068cash n/a
Positions22 / 192open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age12molast trade 24d ago

Equity curve · cumulative PnL

PnL−$7,346below peak −$16.1kOct 13

SharpScore inputs

27/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale0
Adjusted win rateraw 52.4% · shrunk toward 50%30
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable76
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d18
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0

Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.

Best markets

Worst markets

Open positions · 22

MarketOutcomeAvg entryNowRealizedEnds
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?Yes21.6k11¢7.5¢$1,623−$757−$49
Unit FDV above $400M one day after launch?Yes1,58034¢31.5¢$498−$39−$8.41
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes37.0k1.4¢0.5¢$203−$297$0
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes6,5172¢2.8¢$179+$49$0
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes10.0k2.1¢1.3¢$125−$85$0
Metamask FDV above $4B one day after launch?No12295.3¢97.8¢$119+$2.99$0
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes10,0001.8¢1¢$95−$85$0
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes50.0k0.8¢0.2¢$75−$325$0
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?Yes1,10023¢4.5¢$49−$203$0
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes30.0k1¢0.2¢$45−$255$0
SBF released from custody in 2026?No2288¢98.7¢$22+$2.35+$21
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes42.9k0.7¢0.1¢$21−$279$0
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?No1089¢97.2¢$9.88+$0.83$0
China coup attempt before 2027?Yes423.3¢3.8¢$1.57+$0.19$0
US recession by end of 2026?Yes1334¢7.5¢$1.00−$3.53+$200
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Yes1327¢4.5¢$0.59−$2.96−$100
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?Yes3,40020.7¢0¢$0−$704$0
Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch?No2,07342.9¢0¢$0−$889$0
GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?No1,50035¢0¢$0−$525$0
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?Yes1,3197.6¢0¢$0−$100$0
Mezo FDV above $50M one day after launch?No1,26016¢0¢$0−$202$0
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?Yes1495.7¢0¢$0−$8.48$0

Recent trades

auto-refresh 30s
TimeSideMarketPriceSharesValueTrader WRSharpFlagsTransaction
SELL YesWill HYPE flip SOL by December 31?6¢1,000$6052%27
SELL NoPredict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?83.6¢309$25852%27
SELL NoWill Iran legalize gay marriage?97.8¢75$7352%27
SELL NoWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?7.2¢1,400$10052%27
SELL YesWill Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?4.4¢3,000$13252%27
SELL NoWill Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?88.3¢1,085$95852%27
SELL NoFelix Protocol FDV above $25M one day after launch?79.6¢1,434$1,14252%27
SELL NoWill the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2026?97.8¢117$11452%27
SELL NoPredict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?91.1¢91$8352%27
SELL NoWill South Africa win on 2026-06-28?83¢119$9952%27
BUY YesWill the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C or below on June 27?92¢11$1052%27
BUY NoWill South Africa win on 2026-06-28?84¢119$10052%27
BUY YesWill the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C or below on June 27?91¢110$10052%27
SELL NoWill Neymar play in the World Cup?6¢2,000$12052%27
SELL SomethingNothing Ever Happens: June10¢897$9052%27
SELL YesWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?98.2¢6,000$5,89252%27
SELL YesIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?7.8¢2,592$20352%27
BUY NoWill Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?68¢647$44052%27
BUY YesWill Donald Trump visit France in 2026?95¢27$2652%27
BUY YesWill Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?1.4¢37.0k$50052%27