PnL all-time+$20vol $7.22M
PnL 30d+$1,044gains $214 · losses $0
PnL 7d−$532win rate 7d 100.0%
Win rate52.6%adj 52.3% · 30d 100.0%
Open value$30.9kcash n/a
Positions8 / 160open / all-time
Max drawdown−100.0%of equity peak
Account age1.4ylast trade 3mo ago
Equity curve · cumulative PnL
PnL−$5,947below peak −$141kOct 9
SharpScore inputs
31/ 100 SharpScore · v1
Profitabilityall-time PnL, log scale19
Adjusted win rateraw 52.6% · shrunk toward 50%31
Sample sizepositions — more = more reliable73
Recencylast trade; fades over 30d0
Drawdown controlmax peak-to-trough of equity0
Each input normalised to 0–100. The score blends them; weights are versioned server-side.
Best markets
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? · Yesclosed+$32.3kKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? · Yesclosed+$21.6kUS forces enter Iran by March 31? · Noclosed+$13.4kWill a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? · Yesclosed+$12.7kKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? · Yesclosed+$12.2k
Worst markets
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? · Noclosed−$62.3kStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? · Yesclosed−$21.0kStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? · Yesopen−$18.1kStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? · Yesclosed−$17.9kStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? · Yesopen−$14.8k
Open positions · 8
| Market | Outcome | Avg entry | Now | Realized | Ends | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? | No | 33.6k | 79.3¢ | 88.5¢ | $29.7k | +$3,098 | $0 | |
| Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? | Yes | 45.8k | 15.6¢ | 2.1¢ | $962 | −$6,177 | +$33 | |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | No | 1,500 | 64.2¢ | 12.5¢ | $188 | −$776 | −$818 | |
| Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 25.0k | 9.2¢ | 0.3¢ | $63 | −$2,245 | −$596 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | Yes | 66.9k | 27.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$18.1k | $0 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Yes | 34.4k | 43¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$14.8k | $0 | |
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Yes | 2,500 | 12¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$300 | +$79 | |
| Will the Edmonton Oilers win the Western Conference? | Yes | 507 | 13.1¢ | 0¢ | $0 | −$67 | $0 |
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